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Arthur Hayes: Expects Price Discovery for America's Largest Tech Stocks to Occur on the Perpetual Futures Market
BlockBeats News, November 28, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote that "Traditional Finance (TradFi) is desperately trying to maintain its dominant position in stock trading. Watching how they respond to the rapid market acceptance of stock index perpetual contracts will be very interesting. The first market-dominating area of perpetual contracts will be offshore trading of U.S. stock price risk."
U.S. stocks, as well as all stocks, will eventually be tokenized. However, stock index perpetual contracts can succeed without relying on stock tokenization. Stock perpetual contracts have mature infrastructure that can quickly expand. Currently, the daily trading volume of stock index perpetual contracts has exceeded $100 million. As traders and market makers become familiar with the contract specifications, the trading volume will quickly reach daily volumes in the tens of billions of dollars. Considering the frequent global announcements after the TradFi market closes every Friday, stock index perpetual contracts will become a tool for institutions and retail traders to hedge risks over the weekend. This will force large U.S. securities trading platforms to achieve 24/7 trading faster than originally planned.
I predict that by the end of 2026, price discovery for the largest U.S. tech stocks and major indices (such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) will occur in the retail-focused perpetual contract market. When financial media display the quotes of the S&P 500 perpetual contract as the best pricing source, rather than CME's Globex version."
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