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FOMC June Meeting Minutes Key Takeaways: Watchful Waiting to End in Summer, Rate Cut in September Possible
BlockBeats News, July 9, Federal Reserve June Meeting Minutes Focus:
· Likelihood of July Rate Cut: Both Powell and Bowman, appointed during the Trump 1.0 era, have indicated they will consider a rate cut at the July meeting, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary.
· Watchful Waiting Period Ending in Summer, Likely Rate Cut in September: The meeting minutes may suggest that "the rate path will depend on the data released in June, July, and August," and the "watchful waiting" period may end at the close of summer. The minutes may indicate that the Committee expects to have the necessary data to make a rate cut decision before the end of summer. If conditions align with expectations, this will strengthen the market's expectation of a rate cut in September.
· Lowering Rate Cut Threshold: The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes may read more dovish. Chairman Powell tended to use neutral language in the June meeting, but the minutes may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for a rate cut is decreasing.
· Internal Dissent Clues: Among the 19 officials on June 19, 7 believed there was no need for a rate cut this year, 2 expected one rate cut, 8 believed in two rate cuts, and 2 expected three rate cuts. Analysts will look for clues that led to this divergence. What supported the views of the 7 Fed officials who believe there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025.
· Dual Mandate Concerns: Previous Federal Reserve economic forecasts showed that the pace of price increases will accelerate for the remainder of this year, but in 2026, even though rates are expected to fall, the rate of price increase will once again decline. Also, there is concern about whether there is a serious concern about the strength of the labor market. (Jinshi)
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