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Goldman Sachs: Impact of Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump Tariffs on Overall Trade Situation Limited
BlockBeats News, November 6th, Goldman Sachs pointed out that during the oral argument phase, several US Supreme Court justices questioned former President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, indicating that the Supreme Court is increasingly likely to rule the government's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs as unconstitutional. The prediction market now believes that the Supreme Court's likelihood of upholding the tariffs has decreased by about 10 percentage points. The final ruling is expected to be announced between December 2025 and January 2026. If the Supreme Court rules against the legality of the tariffs, the government may need several months to refund the approximately $115 billion to $145 billion in tariffs collected by then. However, the government is likely to seek alternative legal grounds to reimpose similar tariffs, meaning that the overall trade impact will remain limited. Any tariff reduction measures may only apply to smaller trading partners, with no significant changes expected for major economies such as the European Union. However, the handling of refunds and temporary tariff gaps may trigger short-term market volatility. (Golden Finance)
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