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Hunter Horsley: The Four-Year Cycle Will Be Broken Due to "Reflexivity," 2026 Remains Undefined
BlockBeats News, November 16th, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley posted, saying, "Here is what I observed happening every four years:
Consensus: People believe in the four-year cycle, so 2026 will be a bear market year for Bitcoin;
First-order effect: People will start selling in 2025 to avoid the bear market year;
Second-order effect: Sellers in 2025 cause 2025 to be a bear year, breaking the 4-year cycle;
Third-order effect: 2026 is still undefined, but the four-year cycle is broken.
Recently, Hunter Horsley said, "The four-year cycle is a relic of the past. Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, we have entered a new market structure: new participants, new dynamics, new reasons for people to buy and sell. I believe we have likely already experienced a bear market for almost 6 months and are about to exit it. The development environment for cryptocurrency has never been more favorable."
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