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Lighter TGE Debate: TGE Timing and Long-Term Positioning Spark Controversy
BlockBeats News, December 15th, Lighter sparked intense discussion in the crypto community, surrounding its TGE (Token Generation Event) timing, its potential relationship with Coinbase, and its long-term competitiveness relative to Hyperliquid. Market views were clearly divided.
On one hand, bulls believe that going long on LIGHTER / LIT is essentially a bet that Lighter can deeply collaborate with Coinbase, Robinhood, mainstream VCs, and liquidity funds to gain compliance and channel advantages. LIGHTER has been included in Coinbase's development roadmap, coupled with the CEO's previous public mentions of a "December TGE," and the token contract deployment timing entering a common airdrop window, all reinforcing the market's expectation of a "TGE + Airdrop within the year."
On the other hand, there are also strong voices of doubt. Some traders, when comparing LIGHTER to HYPE, point out that the bullish logic of the two is fundamentally different: Hyperliquid is seen as a long-term narrative building a full on-chain financial ecosystem outside the existing regulatory framework, while Lighter is more like a "cheaper, more user-friendly trading product" but lacks ecosystem-level expansion space such as staking, Gas Token, LaaS, with its potential TAM (Total Addressable Market) believed to be significantly smaller.
Some community members also question how Lighter, in a closed-source state, can obtain Coinbase's listing and custody support, while HYPE has yet to achieve this, sparking discussions on the standards and logic behind this difference. Furthermore, bearish views suggest that after the TGE and airdrop of Lighter conclude, fund incentive outflows may lead to a decline in trading volume and metrics. At that time, if Hyperliquid launches a new round of incentives (such as S3), a large amount of wash trading funds may flow back to Hyperliquid and the HIP-3 DEX, forcing Lighter to launch a new season of incentives to maintain its competitive position.
Currently, most views still lean towards a high probability of the Lighter airdrop occurring within the year, based on reasons such as the initiation of witch address cleaning and abnormal trading signals in the prediction markets.
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