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As October comes to a close, the cryptocurrency market seems to be showing some signs of an uptrend.

Over the past two months, "caution" has almost become the theme of the cryptocurrency market, especially after experiencing the October 11th crash. The impact of this major drop has slowly subsided, and market sentiment seems to not be deteriorating further but instead showing new hope.

Starting from the latter part of the month, some signals of an uptrend have gradually emerged: positive net inflow data, approval of several altcoin ETFs, and a warming interest rate cut expectation.

The most eye-catching data in October comes from ETFs.

The Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a net inflow of $4.21 billion this month, completely reversing the outflow trend of $1.23 billion in September. The asset under management has reached $178.2 billion, accounting for 6.8% of Bitcoin's total market cap. Just in the week from October 20th to 27th, there was a new capital inflow of $446 million, with the IBIT under BlackRock alone receiving $324 million, and its holdings now exceeding 800,000 BTC.

For the traditional financial markets, ETF inflows are the most direct bullish indicator—it is more honest than the hype on social media and more realistic than candlestick charts.

More importantly, this uptrend truly carries an "institutional flavor." Morgan Stanley has already opened BTC and ETH allocations to all wealth management clients; JPMorgan allows institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral for loans.

According to the latest data, the average institutional cryptocurrency allocation ratio has risen to 5%, hitting a new high. Furthermore, 85% of institutions have stated that they have allocated or plan to allocate cryptocurrency assets.

Although compared to the Bitcoin spot ETF, the Ethereum ETF seems somewhat lackluster. It saw a net outflow of $555 million in October, the first consecutive outflow since April this year, mainly from Fidelity and BlackRock's ETH funds.

But this also seems to be a new signal, indicating that funds are rotating, moving from ETH to BTC and SOL, which have greater upside potential, or perhaps preparing for new ETFs.

On October 28th, the first batch of Altcoin ETFs in the U.S. officially launched, covering the projects Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. Bitwise and Grayscale have introduced SOL ETFs, and Canary Capital's LTC and HBAR ETFs have also been approved for trading on Nasdaq.

But this is just the beginning.

Reportedly, there are currently 155 altcoin ETFs awaiting approval, covering 35 mainstream assets, with a total expected size surpassing the initial inflows of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

If all these are approved, the market may experience an unprecedented "liquidity shockwave."

In history, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has seen cumulative inflows of over $50 billion, and Ethereum ETFs have brought about a $25 billion asset increase.

ETFs are not just a financial product but more like a "gateway for capital entry". When this gateway expands from BTC and ETH to altcoins like SOL, XRP, LINK, and AVAX, the entire market's valuation system will be repriced.

Institutional interest in crypto assets is growing.

Additionally, ProShares is preparing to launch the CoinDesk 20 ETF, tracking 20 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and others. The REX-Osprey 21-Asset ETF goes even further, allowing holders to earn staking rewards from tokens such as ADA, AVAX, NEAR, SEI, and TAO.

There are 23 ETFs awaiting approval just for tracking Solana. This dense deployment is almost a public declaration that institutional risk appetite is extending from Bitcoin to the entire DeFi ecosystem.

From a macro perspective, this liquidity expansion has tremendous potential. By October 2025, the total market cap of stablecoins globally is close to $300 billion. Once this "liquidity reserve" is activated by ETFs, it will create a powerful fund multiplier effect. Taking the Bitcoin ETF as an example, every $1 inflow into the ETF will eventually amplify to several times the market value growth.

If the same logic is applied to altcoin ETFs, billions of dollars in new capital could drive another boom in the entire DeFi ecosystem.

Apart from ETFs, another factor changing the market comes from the ever-discussed macro level.

On October 29, there is a 98.3% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The market seems to have already priced in this anticipation, with the U.S. dollar index weakening and risk assets collectively strengthening. Bitcoin broke through $114,900, setting a new yearly high.

What Does Rate Cut Mean? It means that funds need to find a new exit.

And in the unimaginative year of 2025, where the traditional markets lack imagination, crypto has become the place that is "still telling stories."

More interestingly, this round of good news is not only coming from the market but also from policy.

On October 27, the White House nominated Michael Selig to be the CFTC chairman, a former crypto lawyer whose attitude has always been friendly; the SEC also updated the ETP creation mechanism, allowing crypto ETFs to perform in-kind redemptions, greatly simplifying operations.

On the topic of "regulatory friendliness," the U.S. market has not just loosened up but opened the door wide. The government is no longer suppressing innovation but trying to allow the crypto industry to "exist in compliance."

The on-chain data is also synchronously confirming all of this.

The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi increased by 3.48% in October, reaching $157.5 billion. The TVL on the Ethereum chain reached $88.6 billion, up 4%; Solana rose by 7%; BSC saw an even more significant increase of 15%. This not only represents "capital inflow" but also a return of trust.

In addition, the total open interest of Bitcoin futures has risen to $53.7 billion, the funding rate is positive, indicating that long positions are dominating the market. Whale wallets are also increasing their holdings, with a large holder buying $350 million worth of BTC in 5 hours. In the secondary market, Uniswap's monthly trading volume exceeded $1.61 trillion, Raydium surpassed $200 billion, and the ecosystem's activity is continuing to rise.

These on-chain metrics constitute the most hardcore evidence of bullish sentiment: funds are moving, positions are increasing, and trading is active.

In a blog post titled "Long Live the King" on Thursday, Arthur Hayes wrote that although some cryptocurrency traders expect Bitcoin to reach a peak in the cycle soon and crash next year, he believes this time will be different.

His key point is: Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" has failed because what really determines the market is not the "halving" but the global liquidity cycle—especially the resonance of U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan monetary policies.

The past three bull/bear cycles seemed to follow the rhythm of "bull market after halving, a four-year cycle loop," but that was only superficial. Hayes believes that this rhythm established because each cycle happened to occur during periods of significantly expanded balance sheets of the U.S. dollar or Chinese yuan, very low-interest rates, and globally loose credit conditions. For example:

2009–2013: Fed's Unlimited QE, China's Massive Lending;

2013–2017: Renminbi Credit Expansion Drives ICO Craze;

2017–2021: "Helicopter Money" in Trump and Biden Era Leads to Excessive Liquidity.

And when the credit expansion of these two currencies slows down, the bull market of Bitcoin also comes to an end. In other words, Bitcoin is nothing but a barometer of global currency easing.

By 2025, this "halving-driven" logic will completely collapse. As the monetary policies of the U.S. and China have entered a new normal — political pressure demands sustained easing, and liquidity will no longer tighten on a cyclical basis.

The U.S. needs to "run a hot economy" to dilute the debt, with Trump pushing for rate cuts and fiscal expansion; China is also releasing credit to combat deflation. Both countries are injecting funds into the market.

Therefore, Hayes's conclusion is: "The four-year cycle is dead. The real cycle is the liquidity cycle. As long as the U.S. and China continue to print money, Bitcoin will continue to rise."

This means that the future crypto market is no longer governed by the "halving" schedule but rather by the "direction of the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan." He concluded with a phrase: "The king is dead, long live the king" — the old cycle has ended, but the new Bitcoin cycle, led by liquidity, is just beginning.

Raoul Pal's 5-year cycle theory represents a fundamental reconstruction of the traditional Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle. He believes that the traditional 4-year cycle is not driven by the Bitcoin protocol itself but rather by the coincidence of the past three cycles (2009-2013, 2013-2017, 2017-2021) with the global debt refinancing cycle.

The end of these cycles all stemmed from monetary tightening policies, not the halving event itself.

The key shift in this theory is the structural change in the average maturity of U.S. debt in 2021-2022. In an environment of near-zero interest rates, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has extended the average weighted maturity of debt from about 4 years to 5.4 years.

This extension has not only impacted the timeline of debt refinancing but more importantly has altered the rhythm of global liquidity release, thus delaying Bitcoin's cyclical peak from the traditional fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, which also hints at a recovery rally in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In Raoul Pal's view, global debt has reached about $300 trillion, with approximately $10 trillion coming due soon (mainly U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds), requiring massive liquidity injection to prevent a surge in yields. Every $1 trillion increase in liquidity is related to a 5-10% increase in stocks and cryptocurrencies. For cryptocurrencies, a $10 trillion refinancing could inject $2-3 trillion into risk assets, driving BTC from a low of $60,000 in 2024 to over $200,000 in 2026.

Therefore, Pal's model predicts that the second quarter of 2026 will witness an unprecedented liquidity peak. When the ISM crosses 60, it will trigger Bitcoin's entry into the "Banana Zone," with a target price of $200,000 to $450,000.

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