Multiple "Insider" New Accounts Coordinate to Bet that Trump Will Not Declassify UFO Files This Year

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/12/08 06:46:01

BlockBeats News, December 8, according to PolyBeats, a prediction market titled "Will Trump Declassify UFO Files in 2025?" surged from 5% to 71% in half an hour yesterday, sparking expectations of the imminent disclosure of UFO information. The establishment of this market is based on Trump's explicit promise during the 2024 election campaign to "declassify everything" and the mandatory declassification requirements for the Department of Defense (DoD) in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

Trading data shows that the rise in this probability began with the trader ster. He started continuously buying "Yes" shares when the market was set up, and yesterday's surge in probability was also due to his market buy orders when liquidity was low, pushing up the probability. Looking back at his trading history, his operations are more in line with the "buy low, sell high" trading pattern rather than that of an insider.

On the contrary side to ster, there are 6 accounts whose actions are more noteworthy in the 12 hours following the probability increase. They bought a total of over 20,000 "No" shares at an average price below $0.2, betting that Trump will not declassify UFO files in 2025. These accounts share a common trait: this is their only position on Polymarket.

The simultaneous actions of these six accounts with such consistent timing, price, and position size have introduced another possibility in the change of this market: these 6 accounts used AARO's website updates as a "smokescreen" to deliberately or passively boost the probability of "Yes," causing the price of "No" to drop to rock bottom, allowing them to build their positions at a low cost. These traders are well aware that the routine updates on AARO's website are not sufficient to meet the market's strict judgment standards; therefore, they are leveraging this information asymmetry for a reverse arbitrage bet, wagering that the market will ultimately settle with a "No."

AI trading is already core market infrastructure, but regulators still treat it as a tool — responsibility always stays with the humans and platforms behind it. The biggest risk in 2025 is not rogue algorithms, but mass-adopted AI strategies that move markets in sync and blur the line between tools and unlicensed advice. The next phase of AI trading is defined by accountability and transparency, not performance — compliance is now a survival requirement, not a constraint.

Twitter 上的「虚假流量」是指通过操纵关注者数量、喜欢和转发等指标来人为增加一条推文的影响力和可信度。下面是一些常见的制造虚假流量的方法： 1. 购买关注者： 一些用户会通过购买关注者来迅速增加他们的关注者数量，从而让他们的账号看起来更受欢迎。 2. 使用机器人账号： 制造虚假流量的另一种常见方法是使用机器人账号自动执行喜欢、转发和评论等互动操作，从而提高一条推文的互动量。 3. 推文交换： 一些用户之间会进行推文交换，即互相喜欢、转发对方的推文...

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