Solana Price Recovery: Potential for $160 Amid Market Dynamics
Key Takeaways:
- Solana (SOL) briefly rallied to $140 but faces challenges due to weak derivatives metrics and stagnating network fees.
- A robust short squeeze to $160 hinges on firm derivatives support and heightened investor confidence.
- Broader macroeconomic uncertainties and competition in the crypto space weigh on SOL’s performance.
- Active addresses and transaction count on the Solana network show positive trends, but these alone aren’t driving a bull market.
Solana’s Recent Performance and Market Dynamics
In recent weeks, Solana (SOL) has experienced a modest rebound, achieving a price of $140 but stumbling on its way to reclaim higher values like $160. Despite the recovery from some losses, SOL remains down 30% over the past month, lagging behind several other altcoins in the market. This downturn reflects broader investor anxieties about the United States economy and the increasing reliance on investments in artificial intelligence.
The climate of uncertainty is palpable, with many companies like Target, Home Depot, and McDonald’s scaling back sales expectations due to unexpected earnings reports. Moreover, a cancelled release of pivotal U.S. economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index has left investors in the dark about potential policy decisions from the Federal Reserve.
Factors Affecting SOL’s Price Movement
Solana’s Activity Growth and Derivatives Market Pressure
Solana’s performance is influenced by several critical factors. While the activity on its network has seen a reported 13% increase, this has not offset the diminished demand in the derivatives market. The derivatives realm for SOL is under stress, with negative funding rates in perpetual futures signaling bearish sentiment. The lack of demand for leveraged long positions—as seen with a drop in open interest—suggests a market unease that’s characteristic of bearish conditions.
Traders’ skepticism is further exacerbated by the success of competitors such as XRP, which has seen the launch of exchange-traded funds in the U.S., attracting institutional flows away from Solana.
Solana Network’s Total Value Locked (TVL)
The Solana network’s total value locked has dwindled, falling to $10.5 billion, a 20% decrease within a month. This decline, coupled with a drop in weekly fees to their lowest since May, explains why SOL underperforms compared to other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. Even as Solana remains a leader in terms of active addresses and transaction counts, these metrics alone don’t propel SOL into a sustained upward trajectory.
Prospects for Solana’s Short-Term Rally
For Solana to potentially soar to $160, it requires more than just positive network activity; the derivatives market needs to show signs of recovery. A significant uptick in investor confidence and support for long positions could catalyze a short squeeze. However, with the current macroeconomic backdrop and market competition, this upward momentum faces considerable hurdles.
Solana vs. Competitors: A Closer Look
Comparative Market Analysis
Solana’s challenges align closely with broader market trends. The launch of XRP ETFs and expected listings for Litecoin and Chainlink add to the competitive environment. This competition invites institutional attention and funds that might otherwise be funneled into Solana, creating a more complex landscape for investors deciding where to allocate assets.
Solana’s Position in Cryptocurrency Market
Despite these hurdles, Solana maintains a distinct advantage when it comes to its user base and network activity. While Ethereum’s fees decrease marginally, Solana’s active address count and transaction figures remain robust, signaling persistent user engagement. Yet, this engagement has not yet translated into a decisive price rally, highlighting the delicate balance of factors driving Solana’s market dynamics.
Investing in Solana: Considerations and Outlook
Investors eyeing Solana should consider both the immediate and long-term potential amidst market tensions. While the technology and network growth offer a strong foundation, price fluctuations driven by derivatives stress and economic uncertainties necessitate a cautious approach. Potential investors should be mindful of these dynamics when evaluating Solana’s investment thesis.
FAQ
What is causing Solana’s recent underperformance?
Solana’s underperformance is primarily influenced by weaker derivatives markets and reduced demand for leverage, compounded by macroeconomic uncertainties and competitive pressures from other cryptocurrencies.
How has the derivatives market impacted SOL’s price?
Negative funding rates and reduced open interest in Solana’s derivatives markets indicate bearish sentiment, which suppresses the price and curtails momentum for upward movements.
Can Solana still reach $160?
While possible, reaching $160 would require improved derivatives market conditions, increased investor confidence, and overcoming current macroeconomic and competitive hurdles.
How does Solana compare to Ethereum in terms of network activity?
Solana leads in active addresses and transaction counts, suggesting robust engagement. However, its falling network fees and TVL present challenges not as pronounced in Ethereum’s metrics.
What are the main challenges facing Solana in the crypto market?
Solana’s challenges include weak leverage demand, macroeconomic uncertainties, and increasing competition from other cryptocurrencies with emerging institutional investment vehicles.
You may also like

Blockchains Quietly Prepare for Quantum Threat as Bitcoin Debates Timeline
Key Takeaways: Several blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana, and Aptos, are actively preparing for the potential threat posed by…

Former SEC Counsel Explains What It Takes to Make RWAs Compliant
Key Takeaways The SEC’s shifting approach is aiding the growth of Real-World Assets (RWAs), but jurisdictional and yield…

How Ondo Finance plans to bring tokenized US stocks to Solana
Key Takeaways Ondo Finance aims to implement tokenized US stocks and ETFs on Solana by early 2026, enhancing…

Web3 and DApps in 2026: A Utility-Driven Year for Crypto
Key Takeaways The transition to utility in the crypto sector has set a new path for 2026, emphasizing…

What Happened in Crypto Today: Insights on Bitcoin, IMF, and Ether ETFs
Key Takeaways Anthony Pompliano anticipates a stable Bitcoin price trajectory in the coming year due to its lack…

December 24th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?

Aave Community Governance Drama Escalates, What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?

Key Market Information Discrepancy on December 24th - A Must-See! | Alpha Morning Report

Ether pumps to outsiders, dumps in-house. Can Tom Lee's team still be trusted?

Coinbase Joins Prediction Market, AAVE Governance Dispute - What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has shown strong momentum across multiple dimensions. The mainstream discussion has focused on Coinbase's official entry into the prediction market through the acquisition of The Clearing Company, as well as the intense controversy within the AAVE community regarding token incentives and governance rights.
In terms of ecosystem development, Solana has introduced the innovative Kora fee layer aimed at reducing user transaction costs; meanwhile, the Perp DEX competition has intensified, with the showdown between Hyperliquid and Lighter sparking widespread community discussion on the future of decentralized derivatives.
This week, Coinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company, marking another significant move to deepen its presence in this field after last week's announcement of launching a prediction market on its platform.
The Clearing Company's founder, Toni Gemayel, and the team will join Coinbase to jointly drive the development of the prediction market business.
Coinbase's Product Lead, Shan Aggarwal, stated that the growth of the prediction market is still in its early stages and predicts that 2026 will be the breakout year for this field.
The community has reacted positively to this, generally believing that Coinbase's entry will bring significant traffic and compliance advantages to the prediction market. However, this has also sparked discussions about the industry's competitive landscape.
Jai Bhavnani, Founder of Rivalry, commented that for startups, if their product model proves to be successful, industry giants like Coinbase have ample reason to replicate it.
This serves as a reminder to all entrepreneurs in the crypto space that they must build significant moats to withstand competition pressure from these giants.
Regulated prediction market platform Kalshi launched its research arm, Kalshi Research, this week, aimed at opening its internal data to the academic community and researchers to facilitate exploration of prediction market-related topics.
Its inaugural research report highlights Kalshi's outperformance in predicting inflation compared to Wall Street's traditional models. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara commented that the power of prediction markets lies in the valuable data they generate, and it is now time to better utilize this data.
Meanwhile, Kalshi announced its support for the BNB Chain (BSC), allowing users to deposit and withdraw BNB and USDT via the BSC network.
This move is seen as a significant step for Kalshi to open its platform to a broader crypto user base, aiming to unlock access to the world's largest prediction market. Furthermore, Kalshi also revealed plans to host the first Prediction Market Summit in 2026 to further drive industry engagement and development.
The AAVE community recently engaged in heated debates around an Aave Improvement Proposal (AIP) titled "AAVE Tokenomics Alignment Phase One - Ownership Governance," aiming to transfer ownership and control of the Aave brand from Aave Labs to Aave DAO.
Aave founder Stani Kulechov publicly stated his intention to vote against the proposal, believing it oversimplifies the complex legal and operational structure, potentially slowing down the development process of core products like Aave V4.
The community's reaction was polarized. Some criticized Stani for adopting a "double standard" in governance and questioned whether his team had siphoned off protocol revenue, while others supported his cautious stance, arguing that significant governance changes require more thorough discussion.
This controversy highlights the tension between the ideal of DAO governance in DeFi projects and the actual power held by core development teams.
Despite governance disputes putting pressure on the AAVE token price, on-chain data shows that Stani Kulechov himself has purchased millions of dollars' worth of AAVE in the past few hours.
Simultaneously, a whale address, 0xDDC4, which had been quiet for 6 months, once again spent 500 ETH (approximately $1.53 million) to purchase 9,629 AAVE tokens. Data indicates that this whale has accumulated nearly 40,000 AAVE over the past year but is currently in an unrealized loss position.
The founder and whale's increased holdings during market volatility were interpreted by some investors as a confidence signal in AAVE's long-term value.
In this week's top article, Morpho Labs' "Curator Explained" detailed the role of "curators" in DeFi.
The article likened curators to asset managers in traditional finance, who design, deploy, and manage on-chain vaults, providing users with a one-click diversified investment portfolio.
Unlike traditional fund managers, DeFi curators execute strategies automatically through non-custodial smart contracts, allowing users to maintain full control of their assets. The article offered a new perspective on the specialization and risk management in the DeFi space.
Another widely circulated article, "Ethereum 2025: From Experiment to Global Infrastructure," provided a comprehensive summary of Ethereum's development over the past year. The article noted that 2025 is a crucial year for Ethereum's transition from an experimental project to global financial infrastructure. Through the Pectra and Fusaka hard forks, Ethereum achieved significant reductions in account abstraction and transaction costs.
Furthermore, the SEC's clarification of Ethereum's "non-securities" nature and the launch of tokenized funds on the Ethereum mainnet by traditional financial giants like JPMorgan marked Ethereum's gaining recognition from mainstream institutions. The article suggested that whether it is the continued growth of DeFi, the thriving L2 ecosystem, or the integration with the AI field, Ethereum's vision as the "world computer" is gradually becoming a reality.
The Solana Foundation engineering team released a fee layer solution called Kora this week.
Kora is a fee relayer and signatory node designed to provide the Solana ecosystem with a more flexible transaction fee payment method. Through Kora, users will be able to achieve gas-free transactions or choose to pay network fees using any stablecoin or SPL token. This innovation is seen as an important step in lowering the barrier of entry for new users and improving Solana network's availability.
Additionally, a deep research report on propAMM (proactive market maker) sparked community interest. The report's data analysis of propAMMs on Solana like HumidiFi indicated that Solana has achieved, or even surpassed, the level of transaction execution quality in traditional finance (TradFi) markets.
For example, on the SOL-USDC trading pair, HumidiFi is able to provide a highly competitive spread for large trades (0.4-1.6 bps), which is already better than the trading slippage of some mid-cap stocks in traditional markets.
Research suggests that propAMM is making the vision of the "Internet Capital Market" a reality, with Solana emerging as the prime venue for all of this to happen.
The competition in the perpetual contract DEX (Perp DEX) space is becoming increasingly heated.
In its latest official article, Hyperliquid has positioned its emerging competitor, Lighter, alongside centralized exchanges like Binance, referring to it as a platform utilizing a centralized sequencer. Hyperliquid emphasizes its transparency advantage of being "fully on-chain, operated by a validator network, and with no hidden state."
The community widely interprets this as Hyperliquid declaring "war" on Lighter. The technical differences between the two platforms have also become a focal point of discussion: Hyperliquid focuses on ultimate on-chain transparency, while Lighter emphasizes achieving "verifiable execution" through zero-knowledge proofs to provide users with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB)-like trading experience.
This battle over the future direction of decentralized derivatives exchanges is expected to peak in 2026.
Meanwhile, discussions about Lighter's trading fees have surfaced. Some users have pointed out that Lighter charged as much as 81 basis points (0.81%) for a $2 million USD/JPY forex trade, far exceeding the near-zero spreads of traditional forex brokers.
Some argue that Lighter does not follow a B-book model that bets against market makers, instead anchoring its prices to the TradFi market, and the high fees may be related to the current liquidity or market maker balance incentives. Providing a more competitive spread for real-world assets (RWA) in the highly volatile crypto market is a key issue Lighter will need to address in the future.

Why Did Market Sentiment Completely Collapse in 2025? Decoding Messari's Ten-Thousand-Word Annual Report

Market Outlook: The Future of Cryptocurrency by 2026
Key Takeaways The report focuses on the impact of critical factors like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, alongside regulatory…

Former SEC Counsel Explains What It Takes to Achieve Compliance in RWA Tokenization
Key Takeaways Shifts in the SEC’s regulatory approach to cryptocurrency are aiding the growth of compliance in Real-World…

Blockchains Quietly Prepare for Quantum Threat Amid Bitcoin’s Debate Over Timeline
Key Takeaways Many blockchains are preparing for potential threats from quantum computing by integrating post-quantum technologies. Ethereum views…

Ronin and ZKsync’s Onchain Metrics Experienced Notable Declines in 2025
Key Takeaways Some of the major blockchain networks, including Ronin and ZKsync, saw a significant reduction in onchain…

Stablecoin Weekly Report | Decrypting How Crypto is Reinventing the Internet's Killer Apps through Coinbase's System Upgrade

Security Tokenization and Prediction Markets: 7 Major Crypto Boons to Watch in 2026

Aave Yield Distribution Dispute, Solana Surpasses Ethereum in Revenue, What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?
Blockchains Quietly Prepare for Quantum Threat as Bitcoin Debates Timeline
Key Takeaways: Several blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana, and Aptos, are actively preparing for the potential threat posed by…
Former SEC Counsel Explains What It Takes to Make RWAs Compliant
Key Takeaways The SEC’s shifting approach is aiding the growth of Real-World Assets (RWAs), but jurisdictional and yield…
How Ondo Finance plans to bring tokenized US stocks to Solana
Key Takeaways Ondo Finance aims to implement tokenized US stocks and ETFs on Solana by early 2026, enhancing…
Web3 and DApps in 2026: A Utility-Driven Year for Crypto
Key Takeaways The transition to utility in the crypto sector has set a new path for 2026, emphasizing…
What Happened in Crypto Today: Insights on Bitcoin, IMF, and Ether ETFs
Key Takeaways Anthony Pompliano anticipates a stable Bitcoin price trajectory in the coming year due to its lack…
December 24th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?
Popular coins
Latest Crypto News
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Services:support@weex.com