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The Fed's key focus this week: Not interest rate cuts, but whether it will inject new liquidity into the market
BlockBeats News, December 8th. Despite the market seemingly considering another Fed rate cut as a foregone conclusion and driving the US stock market close to historical highs last Friday, the true driving force behind the stock market and other risk assets' bull run this week following the Fed policy meeting may not necessarily be interest rates. After quietly halting its balance sheet reduction, how the Fed manages its massive balance sheet and whether it will inject new liquidity into the market could be the key.
The global rate strategy team at Bank of America stated last Friday that they expect the Fed to announce this week that starting in January, they will purchase Treasury bills with maturities of one year or less at a pace of $45 billion per month as part of "reserve management operations."
Some believe that this may take more time and that the Fed may not need to take excessive action to keep the market running smoothly. Roger Hallam, Global Head of Rates at Vanguard Asset Management, expects the Fed to start purchasing Treasury bills at a pace of $15-20 billion per month at the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second quarter next year.
Kelley of PineBridge expects the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points on December 10th, bringing the policy rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, bringing it closer to the historical neutral rate of about 3% aimed at maintaining economic stability. (FX Street)
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