WEEX Labs: Is the Super Bull Market Cycle Coming?
Source: WEEK
In the current bearish market sentiment, Prediction Markets have become a "safe haven for information" — traders are tired of the volatility brought on by selling pressure and are more eager to bet on event-driven certainty. Prediction Markets are taking over from Memes as a hot area for monetizing attention economics.
Prediction Markets: A Storm of Attention in a Downturn Market
The crypto market is currently in a downturn, and Prediction Markets, along with ZK and Perp DEX, are the few bright spots, with their common characteristic being a bet on the future narrative of crypto.
In particular, Prediction Markets are fueling a trillion-dollar narrative: in the past week, the total market nominal trading volume surged to $3.5 billion, weekly active users exceeded 290,000, and the open interest even approached the peak of $900 million from last year's bet on the U.S. election.
Figure 1 Source: https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets
This is no coincidence.
During the 2024 U.S. election, Polymarket's prediction accuracy far outperformed polls, with transaction volume skyrocketing from $62 million in May of that year to $2.1 billion in October — a growth of over 32 times. Even after the election, the momentum did not wane: on the Nobel Peace Prize announcement day, a single market traded over $21.40 million.
Compliance + Capital Driving Narrative Upgrade
The resurgence of Prediction Markets is once again driven by an influx of capital under relaxed regulations, propelling a narrative upgrade.
• Relaxed Regulations: Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's crypto-friendly policies, negative regulation is shifting towards cautious openness. The CFTC dropped its appeal against the prediction platform Kalshi's political event contracts, Polymarket was approved to operate as an intermediary market, and Kalshi claimed "legal betting in 50 states" under CFTC regulation.
• Capital Influx: ICE invested $2 billion in Polymarket, setting a record for the largest amount in crypto financing history, pushing the valuation to $9 billion; Kalshi recently raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation; Solana, BNB Chain, and others have also started supporting prediction products on their respective blockchains.
• Narrative Escalation: Predicting the market's narrative shift, which has brought more user engagement and dissemination. As Multicoin Capital's investment partner Eli Qiang mentioned, in addition to cash flow assets (such as stocks, bonds) and supply-demand assets (such as commodities, forex), the crypto prediction market has spawned "assets measured by attention," rather than binary options or gambling.
Figure 2 Source: https://news.kalshi.com/p/nationwide-poll-shows-broad-support-for-prediction-markets
Key Players to Watch
The landscape has begun to take shape, and due to space constraints, WEEX Labs will discuss several key platforms here.
Figure 3 Source: https://x.com/dylangbane/status/1969129269940142528
• @Polymarket—Polymarket is a veteran-level prediction platform founded in 2020, with total funding exceeding $2.2 billion, leading political and economic event markets. Polymarket supports USDC settlement and operates on the Polygon chain, with over 1.5 million users.
• @Kalshi—Kalshi emphasizes KYC and institutional-grade liquidity as a US-compliant prediction market founded in 2018, focusing on sports and macro events, integrated with Robinhood. If Polymarket is seen as similar to Tether, then Kalshi is more like Circle, but Kalshi's market share has begun to exceed Polymarket.
• @opinionlabsxyz—Opinion is an emerging prediction platform supported by YZi Labs, focusing on Eastern narratives such as celebrity trends, with current market share hovering in the top three.
• @trylimitless——Limitless is a high-frequency short-cycle forecasting platform, founded in 2023, with a total financing of $18M, operating on the Base and Arbitrum chains.
• @MyriadMarkets——Myriad is a social embedded platform based on Abstract L2, positioned as a low-threshold social prediction tool covering a diverse range of event topics.
• @soraoracle——In contrast to the user-facing prediction protocols mentioned above, Sora focuses on a developer-oriented oracle service, being the first multimodal AI agent oracle project for prediction markets on the BNB Chain. The protocol's governance token $SORA is also listed on the WEEX trading platform.
Summary
Prediction markets are not about gambling luck or trading memes, but about the collective intelligence's judgment and game theory on event pricing.
With Polymarket hinting at the launch of a token next year, the prediction market may usher in a wave of wealth creation through information asymmetry and insight monetization. We await eagerly.
This article is a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.
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Coinbase Joins Prediction Market, AAVE Governance Dispute - What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has shown strong momentum across multiple dimensions. The mainstream discussion has focused on Coinbase's official entry into the prediction market through the acquisition of The Clearing Company, as well as the intense controversy within the AAVE community regarding token incentives and governance rights.
In terms of ecosystem development, Solana has introduced the innovative Kora fee layer aimed at reducing user transaction costs; meanwhile, the Perp DEX competition has intensified, with the showdown between Hyperliquid and Lighter sparking widespread community discussion on the future of decentralized derivatives.
This week, Coinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company, marking another significant move to deepen its presence in this field after last week's announcement of launching a prediction market on its platform.
The Clearing Company's founder, Toni Gemayel, and the team will join Coinbase to jointly drive the development of the prediction market business.
Coinbase's Product Lead, Shan Aggarwal, stated that the growth of the prediction market is still in its early stages and predicts that 2026 will be the breakout year for this field.
The community has reacted positively to this, generally believing that Coinbase's entry will bring significant traffic and compliance advantages to the prediction market. However, this has also sparked discussions about the industry's competitive landscape.
Jai Bhavnani, Founder of Rivalry, commented that for startups, if their product model proves to be successful, industry giants like Coinbase have ample reason to replicate it.
This serves as a reminder to all entrepreneurs in the crypto space that they must build significant moats to withstand competition pressure from these giants.
Regulated prediction market platform Kalshi launched its research arm, Kalshi Research, this week, aimed at opening its internal data to the academic community and researchers to facilitate exploration of prediction market-related topics.
Its inaugural research report highlights Kalshi's outperformance in predicting inflation compared to Wall Street's traditional models. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara commented that the power of prediction markets lies in the valuable data they generate, and it is now time to better utilize this data.
Meanwhile, Kalshi announced its support for the BNB Chain (BSC), allowing users to deposit and withdraw BNB and USDT via the BSC network.
This move is seen as a significant step for Kalshi to open its platform to a broader crypto user base, aiming to unlock access to the world's largest prediction market. Furthermore, Kalshi also revealed plans to host the first Prediction Market Summit in 2026 to further drive industry engagement and development.
The AAVE community recently engaged in heated debates around an Aave Improvement Proposal (AIP) titled "AAVE Tokenomics Alignment Phase One - Ownership Governance," aiming to transfer ownership and control of the Aave brand from Aave Labs to Aave DAO.
Aave founder Stani Kulechov publicly stated his intention to vote against the proposal, believing it oversimplifies the complex legal and operational structure, potentially slowing down the development process of core products like Aave V4.
The community's reaction was polarized. Some criticized Stani for adopting a "double standard" in governance and questioned whether his team had siphoned off protocol revenue, while others supported his cautious stance, arguing that significant governance changes require more thorough discussion.
This controversy highlights the tension between the ideal of DAO governance in DeFi projects and the actual power held by core development teams.
Despite governance disputes putting pressure on the AAVE token price, on-chain data shows that Stani Kulechov himself has purchased millions of dollars' worth of AAVE in the past few hours.
Simultaneously, a whale address, 0xDDC4, which had been quiet for 6 months, once again spent 500 ETH (approximately $1.53 million) to purchase 9,629 AAVE tokens. Data indicates that this whale has accumulated nearly 40,000 AAVE over the past year but is currently in an unrealized loss position.
The founder and whale's increased holdings during market volatility were interpreted by some investors as a confidence signal in AAVE's long-term value.
In this week's top article, Morpho Labs' "Curator Explained" detailed the role of "curators" in DeFi.
The article likened curators to asset managers in traditional finance, who design, deploy, and manage on-chain vaults, providing users with a one-click diversified investment portfolio.
Unlike traditional fund managers, DeFi curators execute strategies automatically through non-custodial smart contracts, allowing users to maintain full control of their assets. The article offered a new perspective on the specialization and risk management in the DeFi space.
Another widely circulated article, "Ethereum 2025: From Experiment to Global Infrastructure," provided a comprehensive summary of Ethereum's development over the past year. The article noted that 2025 is a crucial year for Ethereum's transition from an experimental project to global financial infrastructure. Through the Pectra and Fusaka hard forks, Ethereum achieved significant reductions in account abstraction and transaction costs.
Furthermore, the SEC's clarification of Ethereum's "non-securities" nature and the launch of tokenized funds on the Ethereum mainnet by traditional financial giants like JPMorgan marked Ethereum's gaining recognition from mainstream institutions. The article suggested that whether it is the continued growth of DeFi, the thriving L2 ecosystem, or the integration with the AI field, Ethereum's vision as the "world computer" is gradually becoming a reality.
The Solana Foundation engineering team released a fee layer solution called Kora this week.
Kora is a fee relayer and signatory node designed to provide the Solana ecosystem with a more flexible transaction fee payment method. Through Kora, users will be able to achieve gas-free transactions or choose to pay network fees using any stablecoin or SPL token. This innovation is seen as an important step in lowering the barrier of entry for new users and improving Solana network's availability.
Additionally, a deep research report on propAMM (proactive market maker) sparked community interest. The report's data analysis of propAMMs on Solana like HumidiFi indicated that Solana has achieved, or even surpassed, the level of transaction execution quality in traditional finance (TradFi) markets.
For example, on the SOL-USDC trading pair, HumidiFi is able to provide a highly competitive spread for large trades (0.4-1.6 bps), which is already better than the trading slippage of some mid-cap stocks in traditional markets.
Research suggests that propAMM is making the vision of the "Internet Capital Market" a reality, with Solana emerging as the prime venue for all of this to happen.
The competition in the perpetual contract DEX (Perp DEX) space is becoming increasingly heated.
In its latest official article, Hyperliquid has positioned its emerging competitor, Lighter, alongside centralized exchanges like Binance, referring to it as a platform utilizing a centralized sequencer. Hyperliquid emphasizes its transparency advantage of being "fully on-chain, operated by a validator network, and with no hidden state."
The community widely interprets this as Hyperliquid declaring "war" on Lighter. The technical differences between the two platforms have also become a focal point of discussion: Hyperliquid focuses on ultimate on-chain transparency, while Lighter emphasizes achieving "verifiable execution" through zero-knowledge proofs to provide users with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB)-like trading experience.
This battle over the future direction of decentralized derivatives exchanges is expected to peak in 2026.
Meanwhile, discussions about Lighter's trading fees have surfaced. Some users have pointed out that Lighter charged as much as 81 basis points (0.81%) for a $2 million USD/JPY forex trade, far exceeding the near-zero spreads of traditional forex brokers.
Some argue that Lighter does not follow a B-book model that bets against market makers, instead anchoring its prices to the TradFi market, and the high fees may be related to the current liquidity or market maker balance incentives. Providing a more competitive spread for real-world assets (RWA) in the highly volatile crypto market is a key issue Lighter will need to address in the future.

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