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Wintermute: BTC Transaction Trend More Bearish than Stock Index, Upward Narrative Premium No Longer Exists
BlockBeats News, November 14th, Wintermute's latest report pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Index remains as high as 0.8, but Bitcoin's trading trend is more bearish than the stock index, with a much greater response to market pessimism than optimism. On trading days when the stock market is down, BTC's decline is generally larger than the stock index, while on days when the stock market is up, Bitcoin's increase is smaller, a pattern last seen during the bear market of 2022. Wintermute stated that there are two main potential factors leading to this phenomenon:
Throughout most of 2025, funds that typically flow into the cryptocurrency space (including new token launches, infrastructure upgrades, and retail participation) have shifted to the stock market. Large-cap tech companies have become the focus for institutions and retail seeking high beta coefficient/high growth. When global risk sentiment shifts, Bitcoin remains connected to it, but it fails to benefit proportionally when optimism returns. It is more like the "high-beta tail" of macro risks rather than an independent narrative, with the downside beta effect still present, but the upside narrative premium no longer existing.
Today, the liquidity conditions of cryptocurrencies are different from previous risk cycles. The stablecoin supply has stabilized, ETF fund inflows have slowed, and trading platform market depth has not yet recovered to early 2024 levels. This fragility will amplify the negative reaction during a stock market pullback. The result is: Bitcoin's participation in declines remains higher than in gains, exacerbating this performance deviation.
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