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Tom Lee's "Bearish" Analyst: First Half Might See "Risk-off Event" Leading to Increased Volatility
BlockBeats News, January 7th, Fundstrat's Digital Asset Strategy Lead, Sean Farrell, said in an interview that Bitcoin is still long-term "on track" to reach $1 million, with high-quality crypto assets having a strong structural tailwind. However, 2026 will be a "trader's market," with a possible "risk clearing event" in the first half of the year leading to increased volatility. Bitcoin could drop to $60,000 (deep value area, "buy the dip" opportunity). The second half of the year will see improved liquidity, policy stimulus, and AI-driven growth presenting excellent opportunities.
Regarding Ethereum, Sean Farrell believes ETH is seen by traditional asset managers as a "small-cap tech stock." Benefiting from the narrative of Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization (Q3 2025 saw a 145% YoY growth, bringing higher quality assets into DeFi, enhancing value capture). Hence, his year-end target price is around $4500.
For SOL, Sean Farrell believes it will compete with ETH for RWA market share but lacks support from traditional asset managers. Its strengths are high throughput, upgrades (such as Alpenglow, Firedancer), and potential inflation reduction. Price expectations: Drop to $50-75 in Q1/Q2, then rebound to $220-260.
After the risk clearing event, altcoins will be a "great cocktail"; following ETH outperforming BTC, altcoins with reliable tokenomics and solid traction, especially RWA-related, will perform significantly,
Previously, Tom Lee stated in an interview that "Bitcoin may hit a new all-time high by the end of January 2026," while Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell mentioned in a report on December 20th that "Bitcoin may drop to $60,000 to $65,000 and Ethereum to $1800 to $2000 in the first half of 2026."
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