Fish God Dialogue: Personal Experience of 12,000 ETH Theft and the Role of AI in Web3
Original Title: "Wu Discusses with Divine Fish: First Disclosure of 12,000 ETH Phishing Process and Security Advice to Startup Teams"
Original Source: Wu Blockchain
This discussion started from the Bybit $1.5 billion hack incident and focused on the security vulnerabilities of multi-signature wallets (such as Safe) and their solutions. Divine Fish pointed out that there are weak links in the infrastructure of multi-signature wallets, such as the frontend, hardware, and browser, especially regarding frontend tampering and blind signing issues. These vulnerabilities lead to inconsistencies between transaction intent and actual operation, making them easy targets for hackers. As a solution, he proposed temporary measures like domain whitelisting, transaction parsing plugins, and advocated for an end-to-end closed-loop risk control system. He suggested combining AI with third-party verification to enhance security.
Additionally, Divine Fish shared for the first time his experience of being phished for 12,000 ETH last year, emphasizing the risk of hardware wallet blind signing. He called for the industry to adopt a layered and decentralized architecture with a zero-trust framework and to strengthen security culture. He also mentioned that in the face of nation-state-level cyber attacks, the industry needs to address the challenges through technical iterations and improved security awareness. Lastly, Divine Fish discussed the future prospects of the combination of AI and Crypto, believing that AI Agents may play a significant role in blockchain networks, driving industry innovation.
The audio transcript was generated by GPT and may contain errors. Please listen to the full podcast:
Xiaoyuzhou: https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episodes/67bf221605a90dfd0d0c7332
YouTube: https://youtu.be/85Ogctbmito
Reflecting on Multi-Sig Infrastructure Vulnerabilities, Proposing Temporary Solutions Such as Domain Whitelisting and Transaction Parsing Plugins, and Advocating for End-to-End Closed-Loop Risk Control
Colin: Please share your thoughts on the Bybit incident and what notable points you think are worth exploring.
Divine Fish: This incident is actually a very typical case. Because the current industry solution for multi-signature wallets requires reliance on many infrastructures and intermediate services developed by multiple parties. Traditionally, this decentralization and distribution of responsibilities were seen as less prone to issues. However, the problem now is that the interactions between these applications developed by multiple parties and the hardware technologies have some bugs and potential weak points. This has led to a series of recent high-profile security incidents, facing threats from nation-state-level hacking forces.
The root of this issue is that I have been reflecting on this issue since I was attacked in September last year. Around November, we also contacted various hardware manufacturers and realized that blind signing is a very serious issue. The connection from the frontend to the desktop plugin to the hardware is also easily tampered with, and we realized this is the weakest point. At that time, we immediately contacted various companies such as OneKey and Ledger to discuss some solutions.
During this process, we found some issues. Each company had some solutions, but it was very difficult to ultimately implement a solution that could withstand attacks. As someone mentioned earlier, it might take up to half a year to iterate properly. Ledger actually implemented a comprehensive solution because of their contracts, requiring passive updates, which also had a very long cycle. The key is how the entire process can effectively patch vulnerabilities or bugs that arise from interactions across the chain.
Currently, there is a lack of an end-to-end solution in the market. Right now, it's a combination of various companies, but during the combination process, there may be unexpected outcomes, providing opportunities for hackers. During this process, we ourselves actually developed some internal tools and demos.
First, we created a whitelist for domain access to ensure that websites opened on the browser are safe and have not been tampered with, preventing typical phishing attacks, especially things like entering the wrong URL or random webpage redirection. Secondly, we developed a transaction parsing plugin that can run on mobile devices. Some hardware wallets communicate with the plugin or Safe via QR codes, so we verify if the content transmitted via the QR code has been tampered with and then validate the parsed content on the hardware wallet. We created some small plugins, but it felt too fragmented in practice, and the end-to-end process was not fully connected, with too many steps involved. So, after this incident, we are continuing to reflect on our approach.
A critical point is that our industry has grown significantly, with trillions of dollars at stake, inevitably attracting high-profile hacker teams. During this process, as mentioned by our team members, you need to dig deep both horizontally and vertically. However, because the industry is developing rapidly and iterating quickly, businesses often tend to overlook this series of potential risks in order to conduct operations.
Therefore, in this process, our current idea or what we are working on is that, since we have always managed various private keys (hardware, software, on-chain private keys) and accumulated a series of risk management capabilities, including some risk control engines. So, in scenarios typical of projects like Safe, we hope to act as custodians, holding a private key. With this private key, we have a completely independent software and hardware environment, coupled with our series of risk control engines for analysis. Simultaneously, we are introducing our customized series of auditing solutions, incorporating automated AI analysis, followed by manual audits, and then adding some black and white lists, and even some advanced contract parameter controls.
This is actually something we have been using throughout the DeFi process, but we haven't completely connected it to productization. Through this decentralized form, some private keys are not held entirely by one team, but by some external third party independently, and then this thing can only be controlled if it is closed end-to-end. This is currently our idea, and indeed this is how we operate in the on-chain DeFi process because EOA is particularly vulnerable to phishing attacks. Moving to multi-sig faces issues similar to Bybit. We have a particularly long chain of events and various risks.
Our current thinking and solution is that we are introducing an independent third party, and then this independent third party introduces its completely independent tech stack and hardware-software integrated solution, including a risk control engine, and even adding some AI capabilities, to complete a closed-loop process from transaction initiation and analysis, risk control review, to coordinating the signing process, and then trying to avoid the very patient, long-term, nation-state-level hacker infiltration attacks.
Blind Signing Risk Emphasized in Phishing Attack on DeFi Whale, AI and Third-Party Verification Integration Needed
Colin: You mentioned the issue of EOA phishing earlier. We also know that last year, some of your assets were inadvertently phished. Can you recall the specific situation at that time and whether the funds were ultimately transferred by North Korean hackers?
DeFi Whale: My background at the time was that a project was airdropping tokens, and my physical condition was not ideal at that time, and I was a bit distracted, so I clicked on a wrong link, which turned out to be a malicious link. However, the problem was that once the funds reached the hardware wallet side, we had a third-party risk control mechanism for domain names and DNS resolution. Unfortunately, that risk control mechanism was bypassed, and our risk control measures did not catch it. After it was bypassed, I was a bit distracted and did not check carefully. When it reached the hardware wallet side, because it was blind signing on the hardware wallet side, after I confirmed the transaction, I felt something was wrong and immediately checked, only to discover that something was amiss, and then the rest is history. After this incident, we went to address the issue of blind signing on hardware wallets. During this process, during last year's National Day, we held meetings with OneKey and others and found that the problem was not easy to solve. Because EOA is vulnerable to phishing attacks, especially targeted attacks.
So we turned to using Safe for multi-signature transactions. During the multi-signature process, I found that this issue somehow became more serious because almost every transaction was blind signed, and we had to create many small tools to try to address these issues. Ultimately, we still need a holistic solution. Our hardware wallet needs to achieve the goal of software and hardware integration because the hardware's UI is indeed the final checkpoint. We also need to introduce some independent third parties that can prevent interception, alerts, and handling when a person's state is not right in this process. This is also one of the reasons why we have started to iterate and attempt to productize in this area.
Reasons for the Absence of the "Altcoin Season": Lack of Drive and Anticipation of National Reserve Decisions Driving Market Development
Colin: In addition, last year, you were the first to raise the issue of the absence of an "altcoin season." There was a lot of debate, with some people, including many prominent figures, criticizing and insisting that there must be an "altcoin season," while others acknowledged it. Then, in December of last year, the "altcoin season" indeed happened very briefly. At that time, you might have felt that the "altcoin season" was emerging, stating that it had begun.
However, not long after, it seems that, as you originally mentioned, in this cycle, the "altcoin season" was almost non-existent. Of course, we do not make predictions. Regarding short-term forecasts, as someone said before, only God knows. But do you have any new thoughts now? Do you think that in this cycle, the "altcoin season" is almost impossible to occur because it mainly revolves around the Bitcoin price cycle? Also, do you not think that the so-called bull market has ended or is about to transition into a bear market phase?
Whale: My current feeling is that over the past two to three years, apart from some minor emotionally driven hot topics, the entire industry still lacks a clear landing application and real demand-driven scenarios, as it was very evident in 2020 and 2021. I believe this is the fundamental issue. Due to the lack of intrinsic drive, there will not be new truly valuable application assets emerging.
On the other hand, in this cycle, a large number of players actually stayed in the traditional US stock market. They traded through ETF allocations, using platforms like Robinhood. They do not truly own cryptocurrency assets. Therefore, a lot of money did not stay within the crypto field, and the anticipated overflow effect did not occur, where funds would spread from Bitcoin and Ethereum to other currencies. With these two factors combined, for some reason, perhaps even the "altcoin season" was driven by short-term sentiment and only lasted a few weeks, without a widespread breakout. At the moment, I almost maintain my previous judgment.
My view for this year, or my expectation for the market, is that a market development milestone may be reached in the second half of this year, possibly between June and October. As the situation regarding the US and other national reserve decisions becomes clearer and is resolved, the industry or market may see a significant influx of new funds. However, currently, in the short to medium term, we may not be able to resolve issues at the application layer. There doesn't seem to be a frenzy of inflow in terms of on-chain and off-chain funds. So, I am more hopeful for the second half of the year.
I'm not making a judgment on this matter today, but it may ultimately depend on whether the Reserve-related issue in the United States will have any results this year. If there are no results, the market may come to an end. At this moment, we feel that the probability of passage is still relatively high, but it's hard to say for sure, so our expectations are more focused on the second half of the year. (This Space was posted on February 25th, and in March, Trump signed an executive order on Bitcoin Reserve)
Summary of Historical Hacks: Dealing with Nation-State Hackers Requires Layered Decentralization, Zero Trust Architecture, and Security Culture
Colin: Well, Whale, you've been in the crypto space for a long time. I joined around 2017. There have been countless theft incidents in the crypto world's history, all very thrilling. Of course, the amount stolen in this Bybit hack set a new record, but Bybit itself is profitable enough to be able to fully reimburse users. In your memory, including the early days, what are the most memorable theft experiences you've had, and which ones are most worth sharing?
Whale: I believe that the cat-and-mouse game has always been escalating, especially in the early days when the attack methods were very primitive. We in the industry must realize that we are up against a nation-state level of force. These are not ordinary hackers; they are organized, sometimes intensively trained from the age of ten, using various methods similar to attacking core infrastructure to infiltrate our enterprises internally. They will even challenge us on a human level. It is essential for everyone to clearly recognize that we are facing such adversaries. In this process, there will be complacency, and human nature will pose some challenges. Ultimately, we must adopt adequate means and methods to withstand these threats.
In the history of the Internet, Cobo is probably one of the earliest Chinese-background companies to adopt the Zero Trust model and security culture. We adopted this methodology early on because only this method has been validated to resist penetration attempts from nation-state actors. Therefore, around 2018 and 2019, we began implementing Zero Trust transformation internally, where all our internal services and all employees' computers and phones had to install various security measures. Once we realized this, we had to employ this solution and ensure that all our systems are in a minimal trust state.
Simultaneously, the most critical asset for us is the private key, so we must introduce a layered, decentralized, and distributed mindset. What does layering mean? We must disperse our wallets significantly. I previously shared my theory of the four wallets on a personal level. But at an institutional level, we should at least have a three-tier wallet structure—hot, warm, cold—with each layer having its characteristics, and possibly blacklists and whitelists, as well as a series of processes, including time delays. Often, for the sake of efficiency, especially in this rapidly developing industry, we tend to compromise security for efficiency. However, mandatory time delays can significantly reduce your security risks. Especially at the level of cold and warm wallets, we must layer them and set different security risks for each layer, establish an auditing system and processes to mitigate these systemic risks. The cold wallet should ideally be at a physical level to ensure absolute security.
Next is the need for decentralization. As the industry has developed over the years and the number of participants has increased, we may not have the solution from the beginning and could only trust our internal team to handle certain tasks. Now, with the rise of remote work, internal employees have been infiltrated by North Korean entities, with high-privileged employees within the organization. Therefore, we cannot entirely trust the internal processes. Thus, at this level, decentralization is essential. We need to involve an external independent third party to control some private keys and conduct verification, which is also crucial. Currently, there are many custody companies, security firms, and insurance companies that can hold private keys at different levels — some holding hot wallet keys, some holding warm wallet keys, and some holding cold wallet keys. They act as external independent third parties with their security solutions to perform risk management and control. Through a series of measures, the cost and threshold of attacks will be exponentially increased.
Lastly, diversification. We have done well in globally dispersing these software and hardware, as most are already in a decentralized state. From this perspective, firstly, we must use a minimal trust system and apply the zero-trust risk design concept to design our entire internal system and architecture. This should be combined with a core asset management approach that includes layering, decentralization, and rights distribution. Additionally, we need to implement a range of software and hardware security modules, stringent internal access control processes, and establish a secure lifecycle closed-loop management system. Furthermore, having in place real-time and post-event emergency response and solutions can help us survive in high-risk and uncertain attack scenarios.
Compliant trading platforms invest more in security, while offshore platforms, facing growth pressures, lack sufficient security measures
Colin: Personally, I am curious about compliant trading platforms like Coinbase and others. Honestly, it seems that they have experienced relatively fewer theft incidents compared to offshore trading platforms, which have almost all suffered theft. Moreover, many trading platforms have been hacked multiple times. What is the reason for this? In theory, can the architecture they use be applied to offshore trading platforms as well? Maybe because offshore trading platforms have a larger fund size or operate differently. I'm not sure which security expert can answer this question.
Also, Shark, do you think facing attacks from North Korean hackers will significantly increase the startup difficulty in this industry? Will it raise the security costs for ordinary entrepreneurs or the investment they need, thereby significantly hindering the industry's development? Can the industry withstand North Korean hacker attacks, or is there a considerable level of doubt within the industry now?
Whale: Let me add a bit. My intuition is that compliant trading platforms may prioritize security more in terms of both safety and efficiency. For example, in some aspects, they may have stricter controls, so they invest heavily in security.
Offshore trading platforms theoretically have a lot of funds and can invest more in security. Whether it's early Binance or others, including the recent situation, it seems that hacks are quite frequent.
Perhaps it's because offshore trading platforms face significant growth pressure, requiring continuous high-frequency iterations, and there are more user complaints. But in compliant trading platforms, ordinary users don't have such high expectations, withdrawal requests are not as urgent, and even large withdrawals may take T+1, T+2, or I've even seen T+7, which users can accept because the user base is different, mainly institutional on compliant trading platforms. Both of these trading platforms may have a relatively long history, and I don't know if they have experienced being hacked or not. They should have a lot of internal experience in responding to security issues and can essentially consider security issues as a company's "rite of passage."
I think as long as there is enough profit margin in this industry, investing in some SaaS products can definitely attempt to address the pain points and needs of this industry. However, currently, people's awareness of security or willingness to pay is not strong. We have also seen many excellent security products, but everyone is earning hard-earned money, and even the cost is hard to balance, needing subsidies from other aspects.
Actually, this is a problem at this level, but I feel that with the advancement of cybersecurity, everyone is gradually realizing that security is a crucial matter, and investment in security will increase. This also provides certain development space and funding for companies focusing on security SaaS. From a security and architectural perspective, there are effective and verifiable solutions. However, in cases like Safe, there are probably four to five participants upstream and downstream, and to complete a transaction, coordinating between each participant is slow, and hardware upgrades are particularly slow, ultimately giving hackers a time window.
Once the issues in the blockchain industry are fully exposed and discussed, they should be able to be resolved through one or two cycles of iteration. In addition, Web2 also faces similar issues, although the resources invested in addressing security issues in Web2 are not as significant as in the blockchain industry. We see technologies like Passkey, which has been promoted to protect password security for many years, and finally in the past one or two years, it has started to be widely used, especially in some sensitive financial areas. So these foundational technologies are reusable and can be developed, including the Apple devices we use, which are rapidly iterating on the security front. Ultimately, there are solutions, but it may just require some time and financial investment. During this process, some developers with weak risk awareness and a more aggressive approach may incur some costs, but the issues can be resolved.
Founder Security Advice: Practice Zero Trust Model, Cross-Audit Verification, Regular Security Drills
Colin: For founders, recently a startup project had $50 million stolen, although many in the community are also supporting them. In terms of security for startup projects, as someone with many years of experience who has been through a lot, do you have any advice to help founders better raise their awareness of security?
Whale: I think in the process of entrepreneurship, it is essential to practice the zero trust model, which is critical. Only in the current environment, only this set of methodology and philosophy can protect everyone. At the same time, you cannot rely on some single points of failure and one-way contract audits; the basic requirement is to have at least two to three companies to conduct audits, requiring some cross-audit verification, so that some issues can be exposed in this process. Also, the fundraising pace should not be too rapid. In the early stages, you can increase the funding gradually through some internal testing, public testing, and isolate the funds, which can relatively manage the risk well.
Actually, there are many security solutions in the industry that are not very expensive, such as secure monitoring and risk control systems, which everyone should make use of. This can significantly increase the survival rate.
In the process of entrepreneurship, on the one hand, the business model should consider the user end, especially for entrepreneurs without a technical background. It is essential to spend a considerable amount of attention on security and the internal zero trust architecture, at least dedicating twenty to thirty percent of attention to this aspect. If the company does not emphasize these internal security culture and systems, and does not conduct periodic internal security phishing tests and red team drills, from the employee and human behavior perspective, everyone will slack off. You must understand that hackers may be watching you at any time. Therefore, resources and attention still need to be focused on security.
Colin: Yes, I think in the process of growing this industry, almost no company, whether it's the boss personally or the company, will not experience being hacked. Fortunately, as long as you are not completely defeated this time, whether it is individual or the entire industry, there will be some progress.
Why Not Participate in This Round of Memecoin: Feeling Unwell, Focusing on AI
Web3 Dumpling: Whale, you have always been in the crypto industry, and you are a well-known figure in this industry. At the earliest, Cobo Wallet may have been mining with everyone. I participated in all of these early activities. In this year's market conditions, I noticed that you have spoken very little about industry-related matters. Including the link you posted today, the mention of PVP was only cursory. I am more concerned that for the industry, it seems that after the last bull run, the industry has reached a bottleneck. I would like to ask Whale, where is the next trend?
Colin: Yes, Shen Yu, you have always been fond of exploring various new things. However, it seems that in this current Meme craze, I haven't seen you actively participating. What is the reason for this?
Shen Yu: The reason I don't partake in Memes is primarily because my body just can't handle it; I can't keep up with the younger generation. Another factor is that my recent focus has been on AI. AI seems like it may have some revolutionary integration with cryptocurrency in the future, potentially bringing new incremental changes. Over a year ago at an offline event, we proposed that the ultimate users of cryptocurrency might be AI agents or AI robots, rather than humans. Therefore, I have devoted a lot of effort to learning about and using AI. I can't keep up with PVP anymore; whenever I get involved, I end up just giving away money to everyone without much positive feedback. Hence, my main focus has shifted to AI.
Looking Forward to the Integration of AI and Crypto, Believing AI Agents Might Play a Significant Role in Blockchain Networks in the Future
Colin: What are your thoughts on AI at present? Because there was a previous frenzy around so-called AI Agents that crashed particularly hard; many of my friends who invested in AI ended up bankrupt. Do you think the earlier wave of AI agents generated anything attractive? And what do you consider to be good application directions for AI in conjunction with cryptocurrency?
Shen Yu: I believe that fundamentally, AI's capabilities have not yet reached that stage. Currently, we are still in a phase of concept validation. However, we can see that AI is rapidly evolving, with the underlying computational power model continually iterating. We are hopeful that AI will eventually achieve a state where it possesses general AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).
Regarding cryptocurrency, there are a couple of points. On the one hand, AI is very friendly to fully digital entities because the data is publicly transparent. Therefore, on one hand, AI may change the way we interact. For these complex smart contracts and inhumane security operations, we should be able to rely on some reliable, intelligent AI agents to assist us in making decisions. I often joke now that when I operate in decentralized finance, I must remotely arrange a few AI agents to watch over me. In the future, it may actually take this form, with a few artificial intelligence engineers and possibly one or two AI agents monitoring the screens. Looking further ahead, AI may indeed plug into the blockchain network.
Let's envision a scenario where AI agents need to interact, including exchanging value, exchanging data, possibly involving contractual aspects, and even forming loosely structured companies or DAOs. They might adopt platforms like smart contract platforms for some value exchanges. I'm thinking that maybe in the next three to five years, something akin to a web social network or a value social network will emerge on the blockchain, ultimately meant for this bunch of AI agents to use.
Once this thing emerges, the value and impact it brings could be very significant. We have always talked about the network effect of Web3, and the asset scale or value it brings may far exceed that of traditional Internet companies that we see today, so this could be something even larger in scale than the current trillion-dollar entities. I have been thinking about what this really is and what we can do in it. I am quite optimistic, although the industry has indeed not seen a good application direction emerge in the past two or three years, but I think it should happen in the future, and there are some obstacles we may be able to overcome, so I am looking forward to that day.
Safe Wallet Blind Signature Issue Solution: Enterprise Signing Tool + AI Risk Control + Blacklist/Whitelist Management
TheCheerSong: I am a trader who conducts on-chain automated transactions. After this event, in a situation where our business cannot afford to stop, we have also been upgrading our security measures. I feel the most troublesome part is still the blind signature part of the Safe Wallet. What we can do now is that we have some open-source permission control modules on our side, and then we apply them to the Safe Wallet.
In this usage process, most of the transaction requests have been automated, so the Safe Wallet is basically only used for manual token transfer operations. I would like to ask the teachers if there are any tools available at the moment to verify the signature content of our relatively simpler requests?
GodFish: In fact, as someone mentioned just now, we will be releasing next week. We have productized this internal set of tools and released this Safe enterprise signing tool. Essentially, we obtain a Safe's private key, then add some blacklists/whitelists through a machine, including some risk control templates. You can customize some common risk control measures, such as limiting token amounts, transaction speeds, setting blacklists/whitelists, etc. Then, with the capabilities of an AI Agent and considering scenarios of large losses, we can clearly outline this process and manage risks well.
This solution, combined with Cobo's previous on-chain Argus-based contract with access control lists and parameter-level controls. I feel that currently, only by doing this can my large funds be transacted on-chain with peace of mind. This is the security practice we are currently using.
Insights from Various Security Experts on the Wallet Security Issue in the Bybit Hack Event
During this Space session, BlockSec CEO Professor Zhou Yajin, OneKey Chief Growth Officer Nig, and Cobo Chief Security Officer Moon also expressed their views.
Regarding the security issue of the Bybit incident, Professor Zhou Yajin stated that the incident occurred due to a discrepancy between the operation and actual trading when using the Safe contract wallet to manage funds. This led to a malicious upgrade of the wallet and fund theft, with the exact reason not yet disclosed. Many project teams believed that using Safe multisig wallets for fund management was secure, but in reality, they overlooked that security should encompass a system-wide build across operational, non-technical, and technical aspects.
There are vulnerabilities in private key management and transaction interpretation, such as inadequate custody, signing, and transaction parsing. The security process for ensuring the physical security of private keys lacks proper handling due to the user-friendly nature. Large fund multisig transfers have a long trust chain but lack a third-party dual verification of transaction interpretation and operation interface information. Therefore, when using a contract wallet to manage large funds, third-party verification and authentication should be introduced, whitelist or delegation should be established, and flexible policy controls should be implemented on the contract wallet.
Regarding the frequent front-end tampering of Safe wallets and the security of the mainstream multisig solution Safe, Moon believes that the Safe solution and contract itself are relatively secure, but when applied, the trust chain is long, making it prone to unexpected situations. The attack on Bybit this time is most likely an outsourcing issue rather than a contract issue, highlighting the importance of daily security awareness improvement. To securely use a Safe wallet, vertical and horizontal considerations are required. Vertically, each link should have controllable technical solutions, such as independent devices, and horizontally, multisig should require independent signer verification. A long trust chain is prone to link intersections, allowing hackers to bypass validation. Therefore, horizontal expansion should not only increase the number of signers but also ensure that each signer's solution and environment are independent and self-verified to fully leverage the benefits of Safe.
Additionally, apart from using contract wallets, exchanges and high-net-worth individuals should establish rigorous mechanisms such as manual reconciliation, anomaly monitoring, automated program audits, and improve security awareness to mitigate Web2 attacks. In addition, Cobo will also launch an MPC combined with a Safe management solution, leveraging Safe's multisig capabilities to allow different signers to have independent, complete end-to-end signing chains.
Regarding the hardware wallet-related issues in the Bybit incident, Nig stated that Bybit adopted an NPC-controlled EOA wallet (due to its easily interpretable signature), while the Safe smart contract wallet has a complex and difficult-to-parse signature, which the security team may not have detected promptly. Existing hardware wallets (such as Ledger) have limited performance and struggle with complex smart contract parsing and blind signing. With early measures, this attack could have been avoided, and the Godfish team and OneKey have developed related parsing tools.
The progress of Ledger's Clear Signing is slow, and the signature data transmitted from internet-connected devices is easily compromised. Relying solely on hardware wallet parsing to ensure consistent intent is insufficient. Bybit lacked a warning this time, and after the first signer was compromised, others blind-signed due to device issues. It is recommended that high-net-worth individuals and institutions isolate fund transaction-related internet-connected devices independently from office devices to reduce intrusion risks. Previous incidents like Radium's compromise may have resulted from a lack of environment isolation.
Regarding the Security of Safe, Third-Party Monitoring Functionality, and the Application of AI in Blockchain Security, Professor Zhou Yajin believes that the security of Safe contracts has been high in the past, with multiple reviews. However, the lengthy usage process brings risks. His team has developed the Falcon Safe Security System, which can examine user transactions from a third-party perspective, analyze transaction content, provide reminders on key information such as transfers, contract interactions, etc., reduce user cognitive barriers, and avoid security issues. In terms of AI application, on the one hand, AI has reduced the cost of malicious activities, making it easier to mass-produce phishing tools. On the other hand, the industry is exploring the combination of AI and auditing, as well as automated code auditing. Although it is far from the ideal state, AI can lower the threshold for cryptocurrency users to use products, helping to address complex user operation issues.
Regarding hardware wallet-related issues, Nig responded that the company would not, like some peers, issue a rallying cry and advertise a sharp increase in sales after the exchange platform was hacked. While the increase in sales is good, it also reflects that many people have just begun to focus on private key security. In this security incident, the hardware wallet bears some responsibility, and the performance of Ledger and Safe did not meet expectations. Safe has ceased front-end and native support. The previous generation hardware wallets have limited parsing capabilities due to security considerations, while the new generation products such as Ultra and Pro will enhance local complex contract parsing, support parsing of transaction core elements, and Classic will also display selected key parts; the app will achieve mainstream EVM transaction parsing, with a slight delay in hardware-side security testing.
Regarding Safe, methods to defend against related attacks will be demonstrated in the near future, and user safety education will be conducted. In the future, despite the diverse technologies, such as OKX's lack of enthusiasm for hardware wallet integration, institutions promoting NPC wallets, etc., due to the mnemonic exposure risk during the signing process in a networked environment, hardware wallets will always focus on the physical isolation of the core. Even with changes such as mnemonic standard upgrades, the core security defense will not change.
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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1.Binance Alpha Launches HIPPO, BLUE, and Other Tokens
2.Believe Ecosystem Tokens See General Rise, LAUNCHCOIN Surges Over 250% in 24 Hours
3.Tiger Securities Introduces Cryptocurrency Deposit and Withdrawal Service, Supports Mainstream Cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH
4.Current Bitcoin Rally Possibly Driven by Institutions, Retail Traders Yet to Join
5.Binance Wallet's New TGE Privasea AI Participation Requires a 198 Point Threshold, with a Point Consumption of 15
Source: Overheard on CT (tg: @overheardonct), Kaito
PUMP: Today's discussions about PUMP focus on its new creator revenue-sharing model: the platform will allocate 50% of PumpSwap revenue to token creators, sparking varied reactions from users. Some criticize the move as insufficient or even misleading, while others view it as a positive step the platform is taking to reward creators. Meanwhile, PUMP faces market pressure from emerging competitors like LetsBONKfun and Raydium, which are rapidly gaining market share. Users also express concerns about PUMP's sustainability and potential regulatory risks in the U.S., with discussions extending to the platform's impact on the entire memecoin ecosystem.
COINBASE: Today, Coinbase became the first crypto company to join the S&P 500 Index, replacing Discover Financial Services, sparking widespread industry attention. The entire crypto community views this milestone as a significant development, signaling that crypto assets are further integrating into the mainstream financial system. The news has sparked lively discussions on Twitter, with many users pointing out that this may attract more institutional investors to enter the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets.
XRP: XRP became the focal point of today's crypto discussion, with its significant market movements and strategic advances drawing attention. XRP has surpassed USDT to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, sparking market excitement and discussions about its future potential. The surge in market capitalization and price is believed to be related to increasing institutional interest, deepening strategic partnerships, and its role in the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, XRP's integration into multiple financial systems and its potential as a macro asset class are also seen as key factors driving the current market sentiment.
DYDX: Today's discussions about DYDX mainly focused on the dYdX Yapper Leaderboard launched by KaitoAI. The leaderboard aims to identify the most active community participants, with a total of $150,000 in rewards to be distributed over the first three seasons. This initiative has sparked broad community participation, with many users discussing the potential rewards and the incentive effect on the DYDX ecosystem. Meanwhile, progress on the ethDYDX to dYdX native chain migration and historical airdrop events have also been topics of discussion.
1. "What Is 'ICM'? Holding Up the $4 Billion Market Cap Solana's New Narrative"
Overnight, the hottest narrative in the crypto space has become "Internet Capital Markets," with a host of crypto projects and founders, led by the Solana ecosystem's new Launchpad platform Believe, releasing this phrase. Together with "Believe in something," it has become the new slogan heralding the onset of a bull market. What exactly is the so-called "Internet Capital Market," will it become a short-lived hype phrase like the Base ecosystem's previous Content Coin, and what related targets are available for selection?2.《LaunchCoin Surges 20x in One Day, How Did Believe Create a $200M Market Cap Shiba Inu After Going to Zero?|100x Retrospective》
LAUNCHCOIN broke through a $200 million market cap today, with the long-lost liquidity and such a high market cap "Memecoin" almost bringing half of the on-chain crypto community CT into the fray. The community is crazily discussing this token, with half of it being FOMO and the other half being FUD. This token, originally issued by Believe founder Ben Pasternak under his personal identity, transformed into a new platform token after a renaming. From once going to zero to a $200 million market cap, what happened in between?May 14 On-chain Fund Flow
Within 24 hours, GOONC's market cap soared to 70 million, could GOONC be the next billion-dollar dog on the Believe platform?
Bitcoin has broken $100,000, Ethereum has surpassed 2500, and is Solana's hot streak about to make a comeback?
The current market is in a state of macro euphoria, with GOONC riding the wave today, skyrocketing 10x in just a few hours, reaching a market cap of tens of millions of dollars, trading volume soaring past 50 million, and rumors swirling that the developer may be from OpenAI (unconfirmed but intriguing enough).
A ludicrous and absurd Solana meme that some actually buy into.
GOONC is a meme coin that has sprouted from the "gooning" subculture, offering no technological innovation or practical use, its sole function being speculation.
It takes inspiration from an NSFW term "gooning," which refers to a person being deeply immersed in certain content (you know what), eventually entering a nearly religious-like trance.
In Reddit (such as r/GOONED, r/GoonCaves) and some counterculture media outlets (such as MEL Magazine in 2020), "gooning" has gradually transitioned from an adult label to a meme-addicted, digital content and virtual self-indulgence synonym, arguably the epitome of Degen spirit.
GOONC is playing around with this concept, packaging the addictive nature, uselessness, and irony of gooning into a tradable financial product. The project team has made it clear: "We do not solve blockchain problems, we only trade absurdity." Blunt but oddly genuine.
GOONC launched on May 13, 2025, using the meme coin launch platform Believe App's LaunchCoin module on Solana. This tool is highly Degen: zero technical barriers, a few clicks to create a coin, perfect for projects like GOONC that can come up with ideas out of the blue.
The mastermind behind GOONC is also quite something and is the most talked-about, with KOL @basedalexandoor on X platform (alias "Pata van Goon") personally involved. His profile even caught the attention of Marc Andreessen, co-founder of a16z, making onlookers unable to resist speculating if GOONC has a hint of OpenAI lineage.
While this 'OpenAI Endorsement' is currently just community speculation, it is definitely a good card to play to fuel hype. Saying "we are pure speculation" on one hand, while tagging a few "AI + a16z" on the other.
GOONC took off as soon as it launched. After its launch on May 13, 2025, its market capitalization skyrocketed to $22 million within 4 hours, with a trading volume exceeding $25.6 million in 24 hours. According to platform data, the first day of trading saw an astonishing +41,100% surge, soaring from $0.0000001 to $0.02, becoming a "missed-the-boat" situation.
GOONC quickly formed an active trading community post-launch, with a lot of discussion and trading signals appearing on X platform (such as the 292x return signal provided by DeBot). Liquidity pools on exchanges like Raydium and Meteora grew rapidly, supporting high trading volumes and price increases.
The real climax occurred between May 13 and May 14, with the market cap rising to $5.5 million in the morning and directly surpassing $55 million in the afternoon. By the 14th, it briefly approached a $70 million market cap, with the trading volume soaring to $59 million. Some community members even posted screenshots claiming an increase of +85,000%, creating a new myth out of the ruins.
As of 1:30 pm on May 14, the price stabilized around $0.039, with a total market cap and FDV both around $39.6 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of $5.43 million. Active platforms include XT.COM, LBank, Meteora, and others.
Although there was a slight pullback from the peak ($0.07), the coin's popularity remains strong. For a coin that relies purely on "irony + community + X post" to thrive, this performance is already at a stellar level.
Currently, the background of the token's development team is not transparent, increasing the potential risk of a rug pull. Rugcheck.xyz warns that the creator of the GOONC contract may have permission to modify the contract (e.g., change fees or mint additional tokens), posing certain security risks.
Community members speculate that the meteoric rise of GOONC may be the "last hurrah".
After Surging 40%, Has Ethereum Price Peaked Upon Exiting the Craze?
Whether you are an insider or an outsider, these days you must be familiar with the news about Ethereum. The reason is simple, causing Ethereum enthusiasts to sigh with emotion and almost throwing off-guard those who defend Ethereum, Ethereum, with a "3-day surge of 40%," climbed to the top of the Douyin Hot List.
As we all know, Ethereum launched the Pectra upgrade on May 7th. This most significant network upgrade since early 2024 integrates the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade, significantly improving Ethereum's performance through 11 improvement proposals. The account abstraction feature (EIP-7702) allows users to flexibly manage wallets through social media accounts or multi-signature schemes, reducing the user threshold, attracting more users and developers. The staking mechanism optimization increases the validator ETH cap from 32ETH to 2048ETH and introduces a flexible withdrawal method, making it easier for institutions and individuals to participate in network security, enhancing the market's confidence in Ethereum's long-term value.
At the same time, Pectra optimized the interaction efficiency of Layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum and Optimism, making transactions faster and cheaper, leading to a surge in on-chain activity. As a crucial step for Ethereum's transition from "2G" to "5G," the Pectra upgrade not only enhances network vitality but also "recharges confidence" in the market, directly driving the price increase.
Related Reading: "Ethereum Skyrockets 22% in One Day, E Enthusiasts Rejoice"
It's not just Ethereum itself, as Wall Street also brought important bullish news.
The world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, proposed to the SEC allowing Ethereum ETFs for staking. This proposal is expected to elevate Ethereum ETFs from a mere investment tool to a bond-like "interest-bearing asset," bringing investors both capital appreciation and passive income, igniting market optimism about Ethereum's future potential.
Specifically, BlackRock has proposed to amend its S-1 filing to allow investors to create and redeem ETF shares directly with Ethereum instead of the U.S. dollar (i.e., in-kind redemption). This move, combined with its $2.9 billion BUIDL Fund launched in March 2024, aims to deepen the integration of traditional finance with blockchain. The BUIDL Fund is a tokenized fund operating on the Ethereum network, investing in traditional assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds. This setup is highly attractive to institutional investors, as they can not only benefit from Ethereum's price appreciation but also earn stable cash flow through staking.
Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's Head of Digital Assets, stated in a CNBC interview in March 2025 that the addition of staking functionality will significantly enhance the appeal of the Ethereum ETF. He admitted that when the Ethereum spot ETF was launched in July 2024 without staking functionality, the market demand was lackluster, and staking could be the key to reversing this trend.
Meanwhile, the SEC's shifting stance on cryptocurrency regulation has also fueled this upward trend. During the tenure of the previous SEC chairman, the regulatory approach was tough, and staking was strictly viewed through the Howey test as a potential unregistered security. Therefore, when approving the Ethereum spot ETF in May 2024, staking functionality was explicitly prohibited.
However, with Trump back in the White House and Paul Atkins taking over the SEC, there has been a noticeable relaxation in crypto regulation. Apart from BlackRock, ETF issuers such as Invesco Galaxy, VanEck, WisdomTree, and 21Shares have also submitted applications for similar staking and in-kind redemption.
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If staking ETFs are approved, the benefits are likely to go beyond price appreciation. The introduction of staking functionality could redefine the role of crypto assets, making them more similar to traditional financial products that provide returns and value appreciation, thereby driving Ethereum closer to mainstream finance.
Currently, the SEC still needs to address several decisions related to crypto ETFs, including whether to approve ETFs for Solana, XRP, Litecoin, and even Dogecoin. With the calls for an "altcoin season" growing louder, Ethereum's strong performance may just be the beginning of a larger crypto market frenzy.
In addition, the Trump family-related DeFi project WLFI is also bullish on this wave of rise, with frequent on-chain activities. According to on-chain data analyst @ai_9684xtpa's monitoring, a WLFI-related address is currently borrowing coins to go long on ETH, borrowing 4 million U from Aave to buy 1590 ETH at an average price of $2515 per ETH.
For this epic surge of Ethereum after half a year of silence, the community has indeed gained more confidence and hope, which has also led to a revival of the entire altcoin market. However, amidst the joy, there are also voices of pessimism. Below is a summary conducted by BlockBeats based on community discussions.
The optimists point out that the current market structure is similar to the eve of the bull markets in 2016 and 2020, predicting a life-changing surge in the next 3-6 months, where some altcoins may even achieve astonishing single-day gains of up to 40%.
@liuwei16602825 stated that this surge signifies the return of the bull market as a sure thing. There is no need to worry about a pullback. The driving force behind the surge uses a high-cost isolated operation, fearing a drop more than any retail investor and will definitely do everything to support the price.
Related Reading: "Ethereum Leads the Surge Triggering the 'Altcoin Season' Speculation, How Do Traders View the Future Market?"
The bears mainly believe that this surge is different from the bull market of 2021, as the current market lacks the confidence of large-scale retail investors entering and holding positions for the long term, with funds rotating too quickly.
@market_beggar observed that a Bitfinex E/B whale has started to close positions and believes that if this whale maintains its high-speed position-closing operation for the next few days, it can be inferred that the whale no longer sees the upside potential of ETH, preparing to take profits and exit. The closing time will be a key focus going forward.
@FLS_OTC stated that there are still many uncertainties at the macro level, and the liquidity cannot support a major bull market. At this stage, it is a "last hurrah," not a complete reversal, and will continue to remain in a short position.
@off_thetarget believes that after ETH transitioned from POW to POS, it lost the "gold standard" of mining machine power cost support. The staking economic model led to a breakdown in value anchoring. Additionally, the L2 ecosystem (such as Starknet, zkSync, etc.) suffered from liquidity fragmentation, failing to establish an effective capital inflow mechanism, causing the collapse of the split disc pattern. Furthermore, the ETH community's excessive pursuit of technical narratives divorced from real-world needs resulted in a weak ecosystem growth. Therefore, he believes that ETH's intrinsic value system has crumbled, and the price is bound to plummet to the 800-1200 range, with a decisive short position at 1800.
@Airdrop_Guard, based on the core logic of the "High Probability Trading Strategy," where three sets of underlying logic different trading systems (such as volume depletion, price supply-demand, long/short position funding rate, etc.) simultaneously issue a short signal at the same point (2580), creating a high-probability trading opportunity. He emphasizes that these systems must be based on different algorithms and logics (rather than mere technical indicator overlays). The current ETH trend aligns with the short conditions in multiple independent dimensions of his trading system, hence the decision to short.
Overall, Bitcoin still maintains over 54% market dominance, and institutional funds' continued preference for it may limit the altcoin's upward potential. The market's future direction will depend on multiple factors, such as Bitcoin's price trend, global macroeconomic conditions, and whether funds can effectively rotate from Bitcoin to the altcoin sector.
Although Ethereum's recent leadership in the market has brought about optimistic sentiment, investors still need to remain rational as different sectors of altcoins are likely to show divergence in trends. Whether this round of Ethereum's rise will usher in a true altcoin frenzy may require more time and conducive conditions.
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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