Waterdrip Capital: The New Logic of Web3 Entrepreneurship in the Global Trade Order
This article is compiled from the keynote speech given by Dashan, Founder of Waterdrip Capital, at the Wandering Island event.
Introduction:
This article will start by delving into the underlying logic of Trump's tariff policy, analyzing the new financial order planned by the United States, envisioning a new round of blockchain entrepreneurship amid macro turbulence (including BTCFi, RWA, stablecoins, AI payments, and other directions), and discussing how traditional capital entry can provide a revaluation opportunity for the crypto industry.
This article is compiled from the keynote speech given by Dashan, Founder of Waterdrip Capital, at the Wandering Island event.
1. Deterioration of the Macro Environment - Crisis Shaping a New Order
1.1 Financial Shift towards Chaos
Since Trump's return to the White House, a series of unexpected economic and political measures have kept the global markets in continuous turmoil. Among them, one of the most significant shocks was the escalation of the tariff policy: starting from April 5, 2025, the United States imposed a uniform 10% "baseline tariff" on all imported goods and applied higher "counterpart tariffs" to 60 countries including China and Vietnam (at one point, tariffs against China were raised to 125%). In the short term, Trump's tariff saber rattling caused massive fluctuations in the global market: US Treasuries faced a sell-off, the yield on the 10-year Treasury surged to over 4.5%, marking the largest single-week increase in 20 years; the US stock market experienced severe volatility, almost triggering a circuit breaker; the US dollar index continued to decline and recorded its largest daily drop in several years. Although the US later announced a temporary suspension of imposing new tariffs on some allied countries in exchange for relief, investors remain full of concerns about the future's uncertainty, making the global financial system seem to step into a "chaotic era."

The post-World War II international economic system centered around the United States (such as the Bretton Woods system and the WTO framework) is facing the risk of collapse: the rise of emerging economies has weakened America's relative advantage, the huge debt and fiscal deficits accumulated by the US have continuously eroded the credibility of the US dollar, and the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has declined. Especially since China's accession to the WTO, its rapid development has gradually approached or even surpassed the US in many technological fields, triggering deep-seated anxiety among the American elite. Breakthroughs by Chinese firms like Huawei in 5G chip design and communication base stations in key technologies are signals that have alerted the US: the once lofty technology gap has rapidly narrowed, America's traditional edge in the manufacturing sector is now at risk, and the younger American generation is more inclined to engage in finance and the arts rather than manufacturing. These series of changes imply that the old order on which the US dominion relied is loosening.
In this context, the U.S. decision-makers began to contemplate building a new trade and financial order to maintain its global dominance. The strategic goal of the Trump administration is not only to seek better terms in trade negotiations but also to attempt a "fresh start" — to reestablish the U.S.' central position by creating a new rules-based system. This includes two main intentions: first, to counter major competitors and weaken the momentum of countries like China rapidly rising through the existing benefits of globalization; and second, to seek a new value anchor to provide new support for the shaky U.S. dollar credit and global trade. In this line of thinking, traditional U.S. dollar credit needs stronger endorsement, and the U.S. is beginning to turn its attention to assets such as gold and Bitcoin, hoping to rebuild the trust foundation of the global financial system through this.
It is noteworthy that since Trump took office, there has been a significant shift in the U.S. government's attitude towards the cryptocurrency field. Shortly after taking office, Trump publicly expressed concern about the development of virtual currency, reversing his previous critical stance on Bitcoin. Some forces within the Republican Party and some state governments have gradually embraced Bitcoin in recent years, seeing it as "digital gold" to hedge against U.S. dollar risks. It can be said that the U.S. is laying the groundwork for a potential new financial order, incorporating Bitcoin into its national strategic vision.
1.2 Bitcoin and Gold: The New "Dual Anchor" of the Dollar
As global trade and financial rules face restructuring, the U.S. is attempting to create a new credit cornerstone for the dollar through "dual asset anchoring": encompassing both traditional gold reserves and emerging Bitcoin reserves. This strategy aims to consolidate the dollar's reputation in the new order through a combination of physical assets and digital assets.
Gold, as a store of value, has long been widely held by central banks worldwide, and the U.S. Treasury's gold reserves (stored at the famous Fort Knox) are a key card in the dollar's dominance. Today, Bitcoin is being endowed with a similar strategic position — seen as the "digital gold" of the new era. By the end of 2024, the total market value of Bitcoin is about $2 trillion, only about one-tenth of the value of gold (about $20 trillion). In terms of long-term potential, if the market value of Bitcoin could one day match that of gold, then its price still has several times the room to grow. It is precisely because of this growth potential, coupled with Bitcoin's unique advantages of decentralization, limited supply (21 million coins), and high liquidity, that the U.S. is seriously considering incorporating it into the national reserve system.

In March 2025, the U.S. government released a series of significant measures in the crypto field: On March 6, President Trump signed an executive order announcing the establishment of a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and a "U.S. Digital Asset Reserve." The following day, the White House held a high-profile crypto summit, inviting industry giants such as Coinbase, MicroStrategy, as well as members of Congress and officials to participate. Trump openly expressed support for the development of the crypto industry at the summit, promising to push Congress to quickly pass legislation on stablecoins and digital asset regulatory frameworks to provide a clear legal environment. More notably, Trump stated at the summit, "Establishing a Bitcoin reserve is creating a virtual Fort Knox" — meaning the U.S. aims to view a Bitcoin reserve as the digital-era treasury gold. This statement marks Bitcoin's formal entry into the U.S. national strategic level, being endowed with a position similar to gold.

The above image shows a Bitcoin wallet address seized by the U.S. government. Compared to the gold reserves in the national treasury, the BTC network is more transparent and decentralized.
These series of actions indicate the U.S.'s intention to anchor Bitcoin alongside gold as assets in the new financial system. In practice, the U.S. government already holds a significant amount of Bitcoin reserves (mainly from law enforcement seizures, among other channels) and plans to further increase its holdings. Market rumors suggest a target accumulation of around 1 million BTC (5% of the total supply), a quantity that is close to the share of the U.S.'s official gold reserves in the global gold market. While this target has not been fully achieved yet, the trend is already evident: some U.S. state governments have even taken the lead by approving the use of treasury funds to purchase Bitcoin for reserves; at the federal level, administrative orders and legislative proposals are being used to legitimize Bitcoin. If the U.S. dollar can be partially anchored by physical gold and digital gold (Bitcoin) in the future, supplemented by blockchain technology to establish a new international settlement system, then the U.S. is poised to take the lead in the future global financial game, sustaining the viability of the dollar system.
Of course, the inclusion of Bitcoin also helps the U.S. solve its own challenges. For example, the massive national debt burden carried by the U.S. government is becoming increasingly heavy, leading to a credit crisis. If the U.S. controls a sufficient amount of Bitcoin reserves and raises its price in the future, it could cleverly mitigate debt risks by selling a portion of its reserves to fill the debt hole. This idea of "diluting debt with crypto assets" has become a new part of U.S. financial strategy. At the same time, the U.S. is also making efforts in digital currency regulation: a recent bill proposed bringing stablecoins with a circulation exceeding $100 billion under the regulation of the Federal Reserve, showing the U.S.'s desire to control the issuance and rule-making of the digital dollar (USD stablecoin) to consolidate the dollar's dominant position in the crypto world. USD stablecoins + gold + Bitcoin outline the embryonic form of the new dollar order—maintaining the legal status of the dollar while being supported by physical and digital assets, enhancing resilience against risks.
2. Market Environment Adjustment and "What to Do in the Second Half"
Over the past year, the global crypto market has undergone a drastic transition from frenzy to calm. The total market capitalization of crypto assets has dropped from a historical peak of around $3.71 trillion to about $3.04 trillion (data source: CoinMarketCap, data as of 2025.04.23), as the market enters a deep correction and liquidation phase. Macro economic turmoil (such as rising inflation and interest rates) coupled with increased regulatory scrutiny has caused numerous projects lacking real value support to disappear during this adjustment cycle. However, for entrepreneurs who believe in the long-term value of blockchain, this moment is actually the best time to build a foundation, gather strength, and nurture new opportunities—the previous cycle's bubble is dissipating, providing a good opportunity to focus on polishing products, accumulating strength, and standing out.
In such a "second half" environment, entrepreneurs should consider: What should be done in the second half? Simple traffic-driven strategies are no longer sustainable, and instead, a startup logic centered around hardcore value should be pursued. In the current market environment, the following directions hold new opportunities:
· Bitcoin (BTC) Ecosystem: Financial innovations around the Bitcoin network ("BTC Fi"), infrastructure upgrades, and the reconstruction of real-world assets and payment networks based on BTC.
· Other Public Chain Ecosystems: Innovations on public chains such as Ethereum that focus on efficiency and profit essence, moving away from mere "traffic farming" and instead building sustainable decentralized finance (DeFi) applications guided by product orientation.
· Real-World Assets (RWA) and Payment Finance (PayFi): Combining on-chain technology with real-world assets and payment scenarios to develop new models supported by stable cash flows.
· Crypto Concept Stocks: Keeping an eye on the rise of "blockchain concept stocks" in traditional capital markets and the new trend of Web3 startups moving towards securitization.
Next, we will analyze the above strategies and explore specific entrepreneurial opportunities worth paying attention to during the macro pullback period.
2.1 Entrepreneurial Opportunities Around BTC: BTC Fi, BTC Infra, BTC RWA & PayFi
Although Bitcoin has long been considered "digital gold" and its main network functionality relatively simple, recent technological and application advancements are injecting new vitality into the Bitcoin ecosystem. Around the BTC network, we see three major entrepreneurial opportunities:

· BTC Fi (Bitcoin Finance): Creating new financial assets on the Bitcoin network. Bitcoin is no longer just a static store of value but is evolving into an underlying platform for issuing various financial assets. Recently emerged protocols like BRC-20 and Runes have sparked a trend of issuing token assets on the BTC mainnet; Lightning Labs' introduction of the Taproot Assets protocol (TA protocol) enables the issuance of stablecoins, bonds, and other financial assets in the Bitcoin ecosystem. This means that the Bitcoin mainnet is expected to take on more value-carrying functions in the next cycle, upgrading from "digital gold" to a value storage network that supports a variety of assets. Representative projects such as Bedrock and Solv are focusing on building decentralized financial services such as lending, trading, and derivatives on the Bitcoin network, driving the transition of BTC financing and asset issuance capabilities.
· BTC Infra (Bitcoin Infrastructure): Reshaping the intelligent infrastructure on Bitcoin. To address the shortcomings of BTC's native functionality, the industry is attempting to create a smart contract layer on Bitcoin similar to Ethereum. One approach is to develop an EVM-compatible Bitcoin sidechain or Layer2 (such as BTC L2 with Ethereum smart contract capabilities) to expand the DApp development space on the BTC network. Another approach involves solutions native to the Bitcoin protocol family, such as the RGB protocol, Lightning Network, and other Bitcoin-native Layer2 technologies. These solutions focus more on enhancing privacy, scalability, and payment efficiency to build a lightweight and economical on-chain execution layer for the BTC mainnet. Representative projects like Unisat, Merlin, B², etc., are dedicated to building Bitcoin's Layer2, middleware tools, etc., to enhance Bitcoin's development ecosystem and scalability.
· BTC-Powered RWA & PayFi: Unlocking Bitcoin's potential in the real-world asset and payment fields. Bitcoin-based RWAs are gradually emerging, tokenizing assets like US Treasury bonds, physical assets, etc. Bitcoin serves as a settlement layer providing a globally verifiable clearing mechanism, giving such assets a highly trusted value anchor. Concurrently, the "PayFi" model emerging based on payment infrastructure like the Lightning Network brings Bitcoin back to the payment stage—for example, combining AI Agents with Bitcoin micropayments to enable real-time microtransactions between machines, humans, and machines, offering efficient payment solutions for SaaS services, data exchange, etc. Representative projects like LNFi focus on enhancing Bitcoin's practical application efficiency and user experience in RWA and payment scenarios, empowering Bitcoin's payment and circulation.
Overall, the Bitcoin ecosystem is experiencing a comprehensive awakening from the underlying protocol to the application layer. Whether issuing assets on the BTC mainnet, building a smart contract layer, or using BTC for settling real assets and instant payments, Bitcoin has the potential to become a hotbed for the next phase of innovation and entrepreneurship. For entrepreneurs, reassessing the possibilities of the Bitcoin network may reveal underestimated golden opportunities.
2.2 Entrepreneurial Opportunities Around Other Public Chains: Efficiency-Driven and Product-Centric Entrepreneurial Logic
Aside from Bitcoin, other public chains (such as Ethereum, BSC, Solana, etc.) are also fostering new entrepreneurial logic and opportunities. After the DeFi craze and public chain battles, the industry is returning to rationality, giving rise to two major trends:
· Return to the "Money-Making" Underlying Logic: Whether it's on-chain lending, trading, liquidity provision, or derivatives, as long as it revolves around capital flow, a viable business model and profit path can be found. In the past few years, numerous DeFi projects attracted funds through liquidity mining and other incentives. However, after enduring a market cooldown, models incapable of generating sustainable fees and profits are gradually being phased out. Conversely, akin to traditional finance, on-chain businesses with clear revenue streams (such as transaction fees, lending interest, derivative fees, etc.) have proven their value. This serves as a reminder for entrepreneurs to reassess the underlying logic of their projects: Do they have a genuine profit model? In the current environment, businesses that can "make money" possess the confidence to withstand market cycles.
· Public Chain Ecosystem Shifting from "Volume Flow" to "Efficiency Volume," with Product-Oriented Entrepreneurship Rising: In the early days, public chains and protocols, in their pursuit of users and funding, were keen on piling high incentives and crafting narratives to drive "volume flow." However, this narrative-driven growth, relying solely on storytelling, proved to be unsustainable. Capital now favors projects that aim to improve efficiency and enhance user experience — in other words, projects that win based on product and technology. Whether it's a new decentralized exchange, a more profitable liquidity provision mechanism, a low-risk lending protocol, or a secure and efficient on-chain asset issuance platform, data service tools, etc., as long as they can address real needs and prove their business model, they are more likely to gain favor. In other words, public chain entrepreneurship is transitioning from competing on subsidies and concepts to competing on product strength and efficiency. For entrepreneurs, this means that focusing on product development, performance optimization, and user experience improvement will be more critical than blindly chasing a mythical "narrative."
In other public chain ecosystems, a new competitive landscape is emerging — efficiency is becoming the key theme, and product-oriented entrepreneurship is becoming mainstream. This shift is a wake-up call for the entire crypto startup scene: only by enabling applications to truly create value and generate revenue can they survive in the cold capital winter and usher in the next spring.
2.3 Sustainable Entrepreneurship Model: Cash Flow-Driven Path Selection
Whether in the Bitcoin ecosystem or on other public chains, building a sustainable cash flow has become a watershed for whether a startup project can go far. The traditional capital markets are starting to evaluate crypto startup companies based on the standards of mature enterprises, with "cash flow" and "profitability" becoming key evaluation criteria. It can be said that traditional investors are redefining the essence of a "crypto company," opening a window for Web3 entrepreneurs to engage with mainstream capital.
Currently, some crypto projects with real-world business models are becoming bridges between Web3 and the traditional capital markets. These projects typically have clear revenue streams, stable cash flow expectations, and good regulatory compliance capabilities, making them the focus of traditional institutions and potential targets for entering mainstream capital markets through IPOs or acquisitions.
· Among several niche tracks, DePIN stands out. By bringing real-world resources such as computing power, electricity, bandwidth, onto the chain management and combining them with economic incentive mechanisms, it builds a distributed infrastructure network for the physical world with a natural SaaS-like revenue model. Representative projects such as PEAQ, Jambo, OORT, Swan are jointly building the foundational layer of the DePIN ecosystem, covering machine access, Web3 mobile devices, AI data storage, and compute sharing.
· AI+Crypto Track demonstrates strong integration potential. By combining AI Agent, on-chain identity, and micro-payment mechanisms, it promotes data interchange and resource scheduling among intelligent agents. Projects like Footprint focus on data analytics engines, while DeAgent.ai builds a decentralized AI Agent protocol to serve Web3 smart infrastructure.
· RWA (Real World Assets) direction is rapidly developing, with the continued tokenization of on-chain assets such as US Treasuries, corporate bonds, and real estate, with an expected future market space of up to $10 trillion. Representative projects like The PAC offer asset mapping services under a compliance framework, driving RWAs to circulate on-chain within regulatory frameworks.
· PayFi (Payment Finance) has become the most active track for on-chain transactions. By 2024, stablecoin transaction volume is projected to surpass $15.6 trillion, exceeding Visa for the first time. Projects like Aisa are integrating stablecoins with AI wallets to build payment infrastructure supporting automation and real-time settlement for e-commerce, cross-border, and machine-to-machine payment scenarios.
In summary, these kinds of encrypted entrepreneurial projects that are "cash flow generative, easily valued, and have a compliance path" are currently favored by Wall Street and mainstream capital as core candidates to lead the way into the mainstream financial system.
For entrepreneurs, the insight brought by this trend is: design your business model with a cash flow orientation in mind. Consider how to generate stable income early in the project, rather than relying solely on token appreciation or subsidy for expansion. Only when your project has a real-world revenue and profit model can you attract both crypto-native funds and appeal to more conservative traditional investors. In a macro-environment of turbulence and a preference for conservative capital in the "second half," crypto startups that operate soundly and have healthy cash flow are actually more likely to break through.
3. Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: Moving Towards Mainstream Financial Structural Integration

3.1 Classification of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks
The wave of "cryptocurrency concept stocks" emerging in the traditional capital market is a significant sign of the integration of the crypto industry with mainstream finance. These publicly traded companies each participate in the blockchain industry in different ways, providing investors with diversified investment targets. Based on differences in business models and business focus, cryptocurrency concept stocks can be roughly divided into the following categories:
· Asset-Driven (BTC Reserve Core): Companies in this category's strategy involve making cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin a core part of the company's balance sheet, leveraging the holding of large amounts of crypto assets to amplify the company's value. Typical representatives include US-based MicroStrategy, as well as Semler Scientific and Hong Kong-listed company Boya Interactive. These companies view BTC as a "strategic reserve asset," and their investment logic is similar to "crypto-version cash flow + market value amplifier" — enjoying main business cash flow while benefiting from the appreciation of their held Bitcoin to increase market value. Their business models often involve a combination of coin buying, bond financing, stock issuance for coin swap, etc., with a leverage nature suited for investors bullish on Bitcoin's long-term uptrend. From a startup perspective, this indicates that opportunities may exist in areas focused on BTC asset management, enterprise coin purchase services, and more.
· Mining Stock Concept (Hashrate Infrastructure Direction): These companies are directly involved in cryptocurrency mining and related businesses. Some companies have expanded from a single mining operation to the multi-faceted hashrate infrastructure field. Representative companies include Marathon Digital, CleanSpark, Riot Blockchain, Core Scientific, TeraWulf, Hut 8, among others. Some mining companies have started using their hashrate for areas such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing (HPC), and have adopted clean energy to reduce costs and respond to environmental trends. The demand for AI high hashrate and green energy are becoming their new valuation drivers. The development trends of these companies provide directional inspiration for entrepreneurs, such as the upgrade of Bitcoin mining infrastructure, the application of green energy in blockchain hashrate, and the construction of new data centers integrating Web3 and AI, all of which are tracks worth exploring.
· Infrastructure and Solution Providers: This category includes companies that provide blockchain underlying hardware, cloud services, and technical solutions. Typical representatives include mining machine manufacturer Canaan, mining service company Bitdeer, cloud mining platform BitFuFu, among others. Their characteristic is to provide "mining tools" and hashrate services to the blockchain network, equivalent to the "water seller" of the crypto industry, serving as core suppliers in the hardware and cloud hashrate field. The existence of these companies indicates that, at the entrepreneurship level, the middleware layer of the Bitcoin ecosystem (such as improving mining efficiency, connecting miners with financial services solutions) and "mining serviceization" (packaging mining capacity as cloud services for enterprises or individuals) may be feasible business directions.
· Exchange Platform Concept Stocks: Companies in this category mainly operate compliant cryptocurrency exchange platforms or custody businesses, such as the US's Coinbase (COIN) and digital asset trading platform Bakkt (BKKT), among others. They have strict regulatory licenses and compliance systems, and their business models are significantly influenced by macro policies and user trading activities. The success of these companies indicates that, in the trend of increasingly sound regulations, compliant financial services will become mainstream. For entrepreneurs, areas worth paying attention to include around compliant custody, on-chain transaction data analysis, wallet account abstraction, and bridging centralized exchanges with decentralized finance (for example, providing services that enable CeFi and DeFi interoperability) — these are entrepreneurial opportunities extended from exchange-type companies.
· Payment Concept Stocks: These companies, derived from traditional payment giants, have incorporated blockchain payments into their business scope. Representative companies include Block (formerly Square) and PayPal, among others. Their characteristic is to overlay a Bitcoin or stablecoin strategy on top of their core payment business with a stable cash flow, thereby gaining new growth drivers. For example, Block supports Bitcoin transactions in its app, and PayPal has also launched cryptocurrency buying, selling, and transfer services. These companies prove the feasibility and value of crypto payments. For entrepreneurial teams, areas such as stablecoin payment solutions (such as cross-border settlement using USDT, etc.), new payment finance (PayFi) products, and AI-integrated smart wallets (such as AI Wallets for automated investment/payment) are all innovative points that can be deeply explored in this field.
The rise of Crypto Concept Stocks has prompted more and more entrepreneurs to rethink their funding paths. In addition to token financing, the path of securitization is becoming an important complement for the new generation of Web3 projects—especially for those companies with stable revenue and a clear compliance structure, a longer-term, more robust capitalization approach is emerging.
Some companies are validating this path through real-world examples. For instance, as mentioned earlier, Boyaa Interactive (00434.hk) has successfully obtained a revaluation of its value in the public capital market through a dual-drive strategy of holding coins and business transformation. Meanwhile, Walnut Capital (00905.hk) represents another approach—getting involved in crypto assets and Web3 projects through investment and equity participation, planning to connect traditional securities, unlisted funds, derivative instruments, and the blockchain new asset system. The company has currently established a partnership with Waterdrip Capital to explore a capital-cooperative ecosystem development path. This "capital-cooperative" Web3 path does not rely on internal development but leverages financial capabilities and industry resources to empower the ecosystem, becoming an important part of the current securitization layout. In addition, Hong Asia Holdings (01723.hk) has embarked on a transition from its traditional main businesses to digital asset management. The company, originally engaged in construction engineering and prepaid product retail, officially purchased Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset in early 2025, adjusted its management structure, introduced a team with experience in the crypto field, and gradually established a Web3 transformation direction. Noteworthy is Nano Labs (NA.Nasdaq), a leading Chinese blockchain hardware manufacturer, which announced in early 2025 that it would use part of its US dollar reserves to purchase Bitcoin, formally integrating BTC into the company's strategic asset allocation system, setting a new paradigm for Chinese blockchain technology companies to enter the global capital market.
The diversification of Crypto Concept Stocks shows that blockchain technology is integrating into the traditional capital market through various business models. This not only provides investors with new channels to allocate to the blockchain track but also guides entrepreneurs about which models are more likely to be accepted by mainstream capital and which models have been successfully validated in the secondary market. From holding coins for market value management to mining for expanding hash power services, to providing basic services such as trading and payment, each model reflects the intersection of blockchain entrepreneurship and traditional business.
3.2 The Web3 Entrepreneurial Path of Securitization: Coin, Stock, and Dual Tracks
Facing the above trends, especially the success of Crypto Concept Stocks, Web3 entrepreneurs have also gained new insights into their funding and development paths. In the past, crypto projects mainly relied on token issuance for funding, but now the path towards securitization (i.e., traditional equity financing and listing) is becoming increasingly clear. Overall, Web3 entrepreneurship has three optional paths, each with its own advantages and disadvantages:
· "Coin" Pathway (Cryptocurrency Fundraising): Fundraising and community incentivization through token issuance. This pathway offers high flexibility, quick start, and is suitable for rapid validation of early-stage products and community building. When the market is bullish, token price appreciation can bring significant funds to the project. However, its disadvantages include being highly sensitive to market conditions, with fundraising amounts and token valuations greatly affected by cryptocurrency market fluctuations. Moreover, the uncertainty of regulatory policies in various countries casts a shadow over the simplistic token issuance model. Teams choosing this pathway need to deal with challenges such as tokenomics design, ongoing market cap management, and compliance risks.
· "Equity" Pathway (Equity Fundraising and IPO): Following the traditional entrepreneurial route, introducing equity investment, focusing on business implementation and revenue growth, and seeking an IPO or acquisition exit when the company matures. In this approach, startups receive investments in the form of equity, which is more compliant with regulatory frameworks and more easily accepted by conservative institutional investors. Its advantages lie in the company's valuation being more based on fundamentals (revenue, profit), unaffected by cryptocurrency price fluctuations, and hence ensuring more stable long-term development. The downside is that early-stage fundraising may not be as easy as token issuance, the user and community expansion speed may be slower, and more time is needed to prove the value. This pathway is suitable for projects with a clear business model, the ability to generate cash flow, and prepared for long-term cultivation.
· "Dual-track" Pathway (Token + Equity Parallel): Balancing both cryptocurrency and traditional fundraising methods, leveraging their respective advantages in different stages. The usual practice is to first issue tokens in the early stages to gather a seed community and funds. When the project matures and stable revenue is achieved, equity fundraising is pursued through setting up a corporate entity, or even driving the company towards an IPO. This "dual-track advancement" model allows flexibility in different stages of the project's development: using tokens in the early stage to incentivize users and build an ecosystem, and later using equity to connect with a larger capital market. However, it also requires the team to have a stronger balancing ability—managing the token community well, maintaining token value, and meeting shareholders' requirements for corporate governance and financial compliance. Some projects in the industry have already attempted the dual-track model, for example, some DeFi protocols issuing governance tokens have the backing company choosing to accept VC equity investment and even considering a future IPO. The dual-track model is complex, but if operated correctly, it may achieve a synergy effect where 1+1>2.
Regardless of the chosen pathway, the key is to align with the project's positioning and the external environment. Entrepreneurs should comprehensively consider the project type, revenue model, regulatory environment, and the team's expertise, choosing the most suitable funding and development route. In the current environment, solely relying on a single pathway may have limitations. Flexibly adjust strategies based on actual circumstances, even switch or run parallel pathways when necessary, to improve the project's survival rate and success probability.
4. Conclusion
The macro turbulence period is both a challenge and an opportunity. The market's "second half" tests the resilience and wisdom of entrepreneurs: only teams rooted in real value and focused on long-term thinking can weather the winter. Driven by multiple waves such as the BTC ecosystem, the new public chain efficiency revolution, on-chain of real-world assets, cash flow-driven models, and integration with the capital market, a new generation of blockchain entrepreneurs is facing unprecedented opportunities. By choosing the right track, validating the business model, and utilizing the appropriate financing path, one can transform crisis into opportunity, stand out in the next cycle, and truly achieve the leap from 0 to 1 in blockchain entrepreneurship.
This article is contributed content and does not represent the views of BlockBeats
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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1.Binance Alpha Launches HIPPO, BLUE, and Other Tokens
2.Believe Ecosystem Tokens See General Rise, LAUNCHCOIN Surges Over 250% in 24 Hours
3.Tiger Securities Introduces Cryptocurrency Deposit and Withdrawal Service, Supports Mainstream Cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH
4.Current Bitcoin Rally Possibly Driven by Institutions, Retail Traders Yet to Join
5.Binance Wallet's New TGE Privasea AI Participation Requires a 198 Point Threshold, with a Point Consumption of 15
Source: Overheard on CT (tg: @overheardonct), Kaito
PUMP: Today's discussions about PUMP focus on its new creator revenue-sharing model: the platform will allocate 50% of PumpSwap revenue to token creators, sparking varied reactions from users. Some criticize the move as insufficient or even misleading, while others view it as a positive step the platform is taking to reward creators. Meanwhile, PUMP faces market pressure from emerging competitors like LetsBONKfun and Raydium, which are rapidly gaining market share. Users also express concerns about PUMP's sustainability and potential regulatory risks in the U.S., with discussions extending to the platform's impact on the entire memecoin ecosystem.
COINBASE: Today, Coinbase became the first crypto company to join the S&P 500 Index, replacing Discover Financial Services, sparking widespread industry attention. The entire crypto community views this milestone as a significant development, signaling that crypto assets are further integrating into the mainstream financial system. The news has sparked lively discussions on Twitter, with many users pointing out that this may attract more institutional investors to enter the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets.
XRP: XRP became the focal point of today's crypto discussion, with its significant market movements and strategic advances drawing attention. XRP has surpassed USDT to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, sparking market excitement and discussions about its future potential. The surge in market capitalization and price is believed to be related to increasing institutional interest, deepening strategic partnerships, and its role in the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, XRP's integration into multiple financial systems and its potential as a macro asset class are also seen as key factors driving the current market sentiment.
DYDX: Today's discussions about DYDX mainly focused on the dYdX Yapper Leaderboard launched by KaitoAI. The leaderboard aims to identify the most active community participants, with a total of $150,000 in rewards to be distributed over the first three seasons. This initiative has sparked broad community participation, with many users discussing the potential rewards and the incentive effect on the DYDX ecosystem. Meanwhile, progress on the ethDYDX to dYdX native chain migration and historical airdrop events have also been topics of discussion.
1. "What Is 'ICM'? Holding Up the $4 Billion Market Cap Solana's New Narrative"
Overnight, the hottest narrative in the crypto space has become "Internet Capital Markets," with a host of crypto projects and founders, led by the Solana ecosystem's new Launchpad platform Believe, releasing this phrase. Together with "Believe in something," it has become the new slogan heralding the onset of a bull market. What exactly is the so-called "Internet Capital Market," will it become a short-lived hype phrase like the Base ecosystem's previous Content Coin, and what related targets are available for selection?2.《LaunchCoin Surges 20x in One Day, How Did Believe Create a $200M Market Cap Shiba Inu After Going to Zero?|100x Retrospective》
LAUNCHCOIN broke through a $200 million market cap today, with the long-lost liquidity and such a high market cap "Memecoin" almost bringing half of the on-chain crypto community CT into the fray. The community is crazily discussing this token, with half of it being FOMO and the other half being FUD. This token, originally issued by Believe founder Ben Pasternak under his personal identity, transformed into a new platform token after a renaming. From once going to zero to a $200 million market cap, what happened in between?May 14 On-chain Fund Flow
Within 24 hours, GOONC's market cap soared to 70 million, could GOONC be the next billion-dollar dog on the Believe platform?
Bitcoin has broken $100,000, Ethereum has surpassed 2500, and is Solana's hot streak about to make a comeback?
The current market is in a state of macro euphoria, with GOONC riding the wave today, skyrocketing 10x in just a few hours, reaching a market cap of tens of millions of dollars, trading volume soaring past 50 million, and rumors swirling that the developer may be from OpenAI (unconfirmed but intriguing enough).
A ludicrous and absurd Solana meme that some actually buy into.
GOONC is a meme coin that has sprouted from the "gooning" subculture, offering no technological innovation or practical use, its sole function being speculation.
It takes inspiration from an NSFW term "gooning," which refers to a person being deeply immersed in certain content (you know what), eventually entering a nearly religious-like trance.
In Reddit (such as r/GOONED, r/GoonCaves) and some counterculture media outlets (such as MEL Magazine in 2020), "gooning" has gradually transitioned from an adult label to a meme-addicted, digital content and virtual self-indulgence synonym, arguably the epitome of Degen spirit.
GOONC is playing around with this concept, packaging the addictive nature, uselessness, and irony of gooning into a tradable financial product. The project team has made it clear: "We do not solve blockchain problems, we only trade absurdity." Blunt but oddly genuine.
GOONC launched on May 13, 2025, using the meme coin launch platform Believe App's LaunchCoin module on Solana. This tool is highly Degen: zero technical barriers, a few clicks to create a coin, perfect for projects like GOONC that can come up with ideas out of the blue.
The mastermind behind GOONC is also quite something and is the most talked-about, with KOL @basedalexandoor on X platform (alias "Pata van Goon") personally involved. His profile even caught the attention of Marc Andreessen, co-founder of a16z, making onlookers unable to resist speculating if GOONC has a hint of OpenAI lineage.
While this 'OpenAI Endorsement' is currently just community speculation, it is definitely a good card to play to fuel hype. Saying "we are pure speculation" on one hand, while tagging a few "AI + a16z" on the other.
GOONC took off as soon as it launched. After its launch on May 13, 2025, its market capitalization skyrocketed to $22 million within 4 hours, with a trading volume exceeding $25.6 million in 24 hours. According to platform data, the first day of trading saw an astonishing +41,100% surge, soaring from $0.0000001 to $0.02, becoming a "missed-the-boat" situation.
GOONC quickly formed an active trading community post-launch, with a lot of discussion and trading signals appearing on X platform (such as the 292x return signal provided by DeBot). Liquidity pools on exchanges like Raydium and Meteora grew rapidly, supporting high trading volumes and price increases.
The real climax occurred between May 13 and May 14, with the market cap rising to $5.5 million in the morning and directly surpassing $55 million in the afternoon. By the 14th, it briefly approached a $70 million market cap, with the trading volume soaring to $59 million. Some community members even posted screenshots claiming an increase of +85,000%, creating a new myth out of the ruins.
As of 1:30 pm on May 14, the price stabilized around $0.039, with a total market cap and FDV both around $39.6 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of $5.43 million. Active platforms include XT.COM, LBank, Meteora, and others.
Although there was a slight pullback from the peak ($0.07), the coin's popularity remains strong. For a coin that relies purely on "irony + community + X post" to thrive, this performance is already at a stellar level.
Currently, the background of the token's development team is not transparent, increasing the potential risk of a rug pull. Rugcheck.xyz warns that the creator of the GOONC contract may have permission to modify the contract (e.g., change fees or mint additional tokens), posing certain security risks.
Community members speculate that the meteoric rise of GOONC may be the "last hurrah".
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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