Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment Warms Up, MCP Emerges as New AI Frontier

By: blockbeats|2025/04/26 11:05:04
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Original Article Title: "Crypto Market Sentiment Improves, MCP Emerges as New AI Track|Frontier Lab Crypto Market Weekly Report"
Original Source: Frontier Lab

Market Overview

Overall Market Summary

This week, the cryptocurrency market was in an upward trend, with both the total market cap and the vast majority of Altcoins showing an uptrend. The recent low market sentiment has been significantly alleviated, with the market sentiment index rising from 55% to 79%, entering the bullish zone overall. The stablecoin market cap continued its uptrend from last week, continuing to rise this week (USDT reached 145.7 billion, USDC reached 61.9 billion, with increases of 0.62% and 2.32% respectively), indicating that institutional funds have increased their entry positions. The growth was primarily driven by U.S. funds, showing that this week's uptrend has significantly boosted U.S. investor sentiment, accelerating their entry into the market.

This week's uptrend was mainly influenced by the easing of the U.S.-China tariff policy, Trump's statement that he does not intend to fire Fed Chairman Powell, and the appointment of the new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, who holds a friendly attitude towards the crypto industry, thereby promoting a strong rebound in the market this week. However, the market still faces uncertainty from the looming U.S. economic downturn and tariffs, so this week's uptrend can only be seen as a rebound from the oversold period, rather than a market trend reversal.

Next Week Predictions

Bullish Targets: SOL, SNX

SOL: Comprehensive Recovery of the Solana Ecosystem, Rise of Meme Tokens, Stablecoins, and Decentralized Exchanges Driving Market Recovery

Meme Token Market Recovery

This week, with the recovery of the market, the trading volume of Solana on-chain Meme tokens has significantly increased. The amount of Meme tokens bought has consistently exceeded the amount sold, driving the rapid recovery of on-chain Solana data. This indicates that despite the previous retreat of the Meme trend causing losses to on-chain users, investor interest in Meme tokens remains strong. Additionally, after Pump.fun launched PumpSwap, PumpSwap's daily trading volume gradually increased, maintaining levels between 3 billion and 4.8 billion USD, accounting for 9% to 19% of Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume. This indicates a gradual recovery of the Meme market. The activity in the Meme token market helps boost SOL's price in the short term.

Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment Warms Up, MCP Emerges as New AI Frontier

Solana On-Chain Meme Coin Trading Activity (Data Source: https://dune.com/pseudocode88_aux/solana-meme-token-analysis)

PumpSwap Daily Trading Volume (Data Source: https://dune.com/pseudocode88_aux/solana-meme-token-analysis)

On-Chain Stablecoin Supply Growth

The supply of stablecoins on the Solana blockchain has been rapidly increasing, surpassing $12.8 billion, reaching an all-time high. This growth reflects investors' confidence in the Solana ecosystem and the demand for on-chain liquidity support. The ample supply of stablecoins provides crucial liquidity support for on-chain financial activities on Solana, fostering the development of the on-chain ecosystem. This liquidity not only enhances on-chain transaction activity but also provides investors with more trading and investment opportunities.

Solana On-Chain Stablecoin Overview (Data Source: https://defillama.com/chain/solana)

Solana On-Chain DEX Trading Volume Growth

The decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Solana blockchain has seen a trading volume of over $3.5 billion in the past 24 hours, indicating a recovery in on-chain activity. The supply of stablecoins has also been steadily increasing, recently surpassing $18.2 billion. This reflects investors' confidence in the Solana ecosystem and provides more liquidity support for the on-chain transactions.

Solana On-Chain DEX Trading Volume (Data Source: https://defillama.com/chain/solana)

Solana Decentralization Policy

The Solana Foundation has introduced a new policy to enhance decentralization. For newly added validators in its delegation program, if certain validators have been eligible for Solana Foundation delegation on the mainnet for at least 18 months and have a stake outside of the foundation delegation of less than 1000 SOL, three of them will be removed. This policy aims to reduce reliance on the foundation delegation and encourage community-backed validators.

Institutional Company Entry Buy-In

Canadian publicly traded investment firm SOL Strategies issued a $5 billion convertible bond to purchase and stake SOL. Following the announcement by SOL Strategies, the firm's stock price rose by 23.5%. SOL Strategies intends to emulate Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy by continually issuing convertible corporate bonds to buy into BTC, with the goal of boosting its stock price. Therefore, if SOL Strategies' move is successful, it will provide significant support and bullish sentiment for SOL's price. Moreover, the recent emerging trend is that gradually traditional companies are also beginning to buy and hold SOL through various means.

Benefits of SOL Spot ETF News

The approval of SOL's spot ETF application has been continuously delayed, but with the appointment of the new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, the situation may change. Paul Atkins has a friendly stance towards the crypto industry and has prioritized building a clear digital asset regulatory framework, which is good news for the approval of the SOL spot ETF and may further drive up the SOL price.

SNX: From Depegging Crisis to Recovery Hope, How Synthetix Is Rebuilding Market Confidence

Recently, the algorithmic stablecoin sUSD issued by Synthetix experienced a severe depegging event due to adjustments to Synthetix's debt management mechanism in SIP-420 proposal. The sUSD price plummeted to a low of $0.68, and Synthetix's token SNX also dropped to a low of $0.55. Synthetix's Total Value Locked (TVL) hit a low of $72.23 million. Market investors' confidence in Synthetix has been shaken.

Remedial Measures

· Liquidity Incentive: Synthetix is boosting the yield to 49.18% by staking sUSD/sUSDe LP on Convex to attract more liquidity.

· Deposit Incentive: Through the Infinex project, Synthetix incentivizes users to deposit sUSD, distributing 16,000 OP rewards weekly to users depositing over 1,000 sUSD, with the incentive program lasting for six weeks.

· Staking Incentive: Users are allowed to stake sUSD in the 420 pool, and by staking for one year, they can receive 5 million SNX as an incentive.

· Negative Incentive and Staking Optimization: Stakers are required to deposit a certain proportion of sUSD, and failure to meet the requirement will result in a pause in debt forgiveness, with a proportion increase upon anchor deviation. Additionally, SNX pool staking has been implemented to expand sUSD supply, introduce support for multiple collateral and off-chain order matching in Perps V4.

Market Reaction

Driven by these measures, the price of sUSD has rebounded to a high of $0.88, and the SNX price has also risen to $0.74. Furthermore, Synthetix's Total Value Locked (TVL) has increased from $72.23 million to $89.25 million, representing a 23.56% growth.

Subsequent Impact

While the anchoring issue of sUSD has not been fully resolved, Synthetix's proactive measures have brought hope of recovery to the market. If the sUSD price can recover to $1, investor confidence in Synthetix may be restored, thereby facilitating further price appreciation of SNX.

Synthetix TVL Overview (Source: https://defillama.com/protocol/synthetix#information)

Bearish Targets: REZ, OMNI

REZ: Underperformance of Restaking Background Triggers 8.64% Token Unlock or Institutional and Team Dump

Renzo is a liquidity restaking protocol based on the EigenLayer ecosystem, aiming to simplify complex re-collateralization mechanisms for end users and achieve rapid collaboration with EigenLayer node operators and Active Validation Services (AVS). Due to the recent poor performance of the Ethereum ecosystem and the prolonged bearish trend of ETH, the ETH staking rate has also experienced a decline, leading to a loss of market attention for the Restaking track project. On April 30, REZ will see the unlocking of 8.64 billion REZ tokens, accounting for 8.64% of the total locked amount, with only a 21% current circulation rate, and the linear unlocking chart disclosed in its whitepaper indicates that the primary recipients of this unlock are institutional investors and the project team. As the Restaking project currently has low popularity and participation, coupled with the poor performance of the Ethereum ecosystem, this significant unlock may trigger substantial sell-offs, thereby impacting the price of the REZ token.

OMNI: Large Token Unlock Approaching, Market Sell-Off Risk Intensifies

Omni is Ethereum's interoperability layer, establishing low-latency communication among all Ethereum Rollups, enabling Ethereum to operate as a cohesive system in the modular era. Omni is also a standalone public chain project. Due to the recent downturn in the Ethereum ecosystem and poor performance of various Layer-2 projects in this cycle, Omni, as the project linking various Layer-2 solutions, has lost its value. On May 2nd, OMNI will have 16.63 million OMNI tokens unlocked, accounting for 16.64% of the total locked amount, while the current circulating supply is only 19%, doubling the circulating token amount based on the existing circulation. Through the linear unlock schedule published in its whitepaper, it can be seen that this unlocking is mainly targeting institutional investors and the project team. Due to Omni's current lack of popularity, this large unlock may trigger significant sell-offs, thereby affecting the price of the OMNI token.

Market Sentiment Index Analysis

The market sentiment index has risen from 55% last week to 79%, entering the overall bullish range.

Hot Topic Track

MCP: Can It Lead the Future Development Direction of Crypto✖️AI

Current Status

MCP stands for Model Context Protocol and was launched by Anthropic on November 25, 2024. After its launch, it did not receive much market attention. Following Deepseek's impact on existing AI software, the market gradually began to focus on optimization algorithms and resource scheduling issues, changing the previous development approach of AI relying on accumulating computing power. As a result, MCP standardized the idea of how external data and applications interact with large language models (LLMs) and provide context, gradually gaining market attention.

Recently, with the MCP-related token Dark on Solana's chain performing well after its listing on Binance Alpha, investors in the market have shown an increased interest in and investment in MCP-related tokens, making MCP one of the few concentrated hot topic tracks in the short term.

Concept of MCP

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) is an open-source standard introduced by Anthropic, originally as an extension of the Claude ecosystem, aimed at addressing the fragmentation issue of AI model interactions with external tools and data. It has now evolved to MCP serving as a secure and standardized way for large language model-driven AI agents to interact with external systems to access real-time data. In practical use, MCP can act as a universal adapter, enabling AI to access content repositories, business tools, and development environments.

The core objective of MCP is to enhance efficiency through standardization, transitioning AI agents from "understanding" to "implementation," providing developers with efficient tools, and allowing businesses and non-technical users to easily customize their agents. This way, MCP can become a bridge connecting virtual intelligence with the real world, thereby driving personalized innovation and development across industries.

Working Principle and Technology of MCP

MCP Technology

The technical foundation of MCP is JSON-RPC 2.0, a lightweight and efficient communication standard that supports real-time bidirectional interaction, similar to high-performance WebSockets. It operates through a client-server architecture:

· MCP Host: The user-interfacing application, such as Claude Desktop, Cursor, or Windsurf, responsible for receiving requests and displaying results.

· MCP Client: Embedded within the host, establishes a one-to-one connection with the server, handles protocol communication, ensuring isolation and security.

· MCP Server: A lightweight program that provides specific functionality, connecting to local (e.g., desktop files) or remote (e.g., cloud-based API) data sources.

The transmission methods include:

· Stdio: Standard input-output, suitable for local rapid deployment, such as file management, with latency as low as milliseconds.

· HTTP SSE: HTTP Server-Sent Events, supporting remote real-time interaction, such as cloud-based API calls, suitable for distributed scenarios.

Working Principle

MCP adopts a client-server architecture, wherein the MCP host needs to communicate and collaborate through the MCP client and MCP server to retrieve data or perform operations. To ensure efficiency and security, MCP assigns a dedicated client to each server, forming one-to-one isolated connections. Its core components include:

· Host: User entry point, such as Claude Desktop, responsible for initiating requests and displaying results, serving as the interactive "facade".

· Client: Communication intermediary, interacting with the server using JSON-RPC 2.0, managing requests and responses to ensure isolation.

· Server: Function provider, connecting to external resources and performing tasks, such as reading files or calling APIs.

Various Flexible Transport Methods:

· Stdio: Local deployment, suitable for quick access to desktop files or local databases, with latency as low as milliseconds.

· HTTP SSE: Remote interaction, supporting cloud-based API calls, with strong real-time capabilities.

MCP Advantages

MCP addresses challenges in current AI applications through standardized interfaces:

· Real-time Access: AI can fetch the latest data in an extremely short time.

· Security and Control: Direct data access avoids intermediate storage, achieving up to 98% reliability in permission management; users can restrict AI to access specific files only.

· Low Compute Load: No need to embed vectors, reducing computing costs by approximately 70%.

· Flexibility and Scalability: Connection numbers decreased from the traditional 1 billion times to 20,000 times, significantly simplifying the configuration process.

· Interoperability: One MCP Server can be reused by multiple models.

· Vendor Flexibility: Switching LLM does not require infrastructure refactoring, similar to USB-C compatibility.

· Self-Agent Support: Supports AI dynamic access tools for executing complex tasks.

MCP Ecosystem Projects

Dark

Dark is an experimental MCP network based on Solana, focusing on Trusted Execution Environment (TEE). Through the automatic integration of new tools and on-chain interactions, Dark aims to innovate in decentralized technology. However, most of the project's features have not been launched yet and are currently in the concept speculation phase. It has its own token, DARK.

SkyAI

SkyAI is a native AI infrastructure based on the BNB Chain, offering cross-chain data access and AI agent deployment. The project is still at the conceptual stage, with no actual products launched yet. It has its own token, SKYAI, with a market capitalization of 43 million USD, making it the leading project in the MCP space.

Solix

Solix is a DePIN Network utilizing MCP, focusing on intelligent bandwidth sharing. Users can share bandwidth through a browser extension and receive rewards, covering 63 countries worldwide. The project has achieved rapid technical implementation but needs to validate user engagement and the sustainability of its economic model. The project is currently at a stage where no tokens have been issued.

HighKey

HighKey is a DeFAI project compatible with MCP and DARP protocols, focusing on DeFi arbitrage and advanced analytics. It has issued its token, HIGHKEY, with a relatively small market cap of only $5.68 million. The project's development features are clear, but there is still room for improvement in user experience and differentiation.

DeMCP

DeMCP is a decentralized MCP project focusing on trust and security, providing SSE proxy services. It has not issued any tokens at the current stage and is still in development, needing to demonstrate its actual product.

UnifAI

UnifAI is a DeFAI project offering on-chain and off-chain task execution capabilities. Its flagship product, UniQ, simplifies complex on-chain operations. Although no tokens have been issued yet, it has launched a reward points program.

Future Development Direction

Currently, Web3 AI projects based on the MCP protocol are mostly in the early stages of development, with no substantial products launched yet, although some have issued tokens. While the MCP protocol is currently a hot spot in the AI subfield, given the past failure of the AI Agent track, there is still a need for caution regarding whether MCP track projects are just a short-lived AI meme asset issuance or can truly develop products that drive the AI track forward. Therefore, the future development direction of MCP should mainly focus on the implementation and application of decentralized technology. With the rapid advancement of AI and blockchain technology, MCP will continue to optimize its technical architecture to support more efficient computation and data sharing. Additionally, MCP will strive to enhance interoperability, simplify the developer experience, and promote the widespread adoption of decentralized applications.

Market Theme Overview

Data Source: SoSoValue

Based on weekly return rate statistics, the AI track performed the best, while the Cefi track performed the worst.

AI Track: In the AI track, TAO, RENDER, FET, WLD, FARTCOIN have a relatively large market share, totaling 86.32%. Their respective weekly price changes are: 50.96%, 18.93%, 53.36%, 33.58%, 29.95%. The average price changes are higher than those of projects in other tracks, leading to the best performance in the AI track.

Cefi Track: In the Cefi track, BNB, BGB, OKB have a relatively large market share, totaling 89.97%. Their respective weekly price changes are: 2.35%, 2.51%, 2.29%. The average price changes are lower than those of projects in other tracks, resulting in the worst performance in the Cefi track.

Next Week's Major Crypto Events

Wednesday (April 30th): U.S. Q1 Actual GDP Annualized QoQ Revised, U.S. March Core PCE Price Index YoY, U.S. April ADP Employment Change

Thursday (May 1st): U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI

Friday (May 2nd): U.S. April Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls, U.S. April Unemployment Rate

Summary

This week, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a significant uptrend, shifting from a bearish sentiment to a positive one. This change was primarily influenced by the easing U.S. policies and the new SEC chairman's friendly stance towards the crypto industry. With the evolving policy environment, investor confidence in the market has been gradually restoring, leading to capital inflows into the crypto market and driving price hikes. However, the market still needs to be cautious of economic downturns and tariff policy uncertainties, which may continue to affect market trends. While investors enjoy market growth, they should remain cautious to cope with potential fluctuations.

Projects like Solana and Synthetix have shown potential for recovery, especially in terms of technological upgrades and community support. The rapid development of Solana and the innovative initiatives of Synthetix have attracted more investor attention, and these projects are expected to further expand their market influence by 2025. However, projects like Omni face selling pressure from token unlocks, which may have a negative impact on their prices. Investors should allocate their investment reasonably based on the specific circumstances of projects and market conditions to mitigate potential risks.

Although the overall industry trend is currently positive, the market still faces uncertainty due to the impending economic downturn and tariffs in the U.S. Therefore, this week's uptrend can only be seen as a rebound from oversold conditions in the previous period, and it does not necessarily indicate a market trend reversal. Next week will see the release of various macroeconomic data, including:

· US Q1 Actual GDP Annualized Rate Revision;

· US March Core PCE Price Index YoY;

· US April ADP Employment Change; US April ISM Manufacturing PMI;

· US April Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls; US April Unemployment Rate.

These data points can all impact future market trends. It is recommended that investors maintain a moderate position, practice risk management, and await clarification of policies, which will be the best strategy to deal with the current market.

This article is contributed content and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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Traditional finance is still stuck in a "human-to-human" model, while Catena aims to achieve "AI-to-AI" interaction.

Never Underestimate the Significance of the US Stablecoin 'Infrastructure Bill'

Original Title: "Never Underestimate the Significance of the US Stablecoin 'Genius Act'"Original Author: 0xTodd, Partner at Nothing Research


If the US stablecoin bill, the "GENIUS Act," passes smoothly this time, its significance will be tremendous. I even think it's significant enough to enter the top five in Crypto history.



Although abbreviated as the GENIUS Act, which translates directly to the Genius Act, it is actually the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins, which translates to "Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Dollar Stablecoins."


The proposal is lengthy, with several key points summarized for everyone:


· Mandatory 1:1 Full Asset Backing: Assets include cash, demand deposits, and short-term US Treasuries. At the same time, misappropriation and rehypothecation are strictly prohibited.


· High-Frequency Disclosure: Reserve reports must be published at least monthly, introducing external audits.


· Licensing Requirement: Once the circulating market cap of the issuer's stablecoin exceeds $100 billion, it must transition into the federal regulatory system within a specified timeframe, adopting banking-grade regulation.


· Introduction of Custody: The custodian of the stablecoin and its reserve assets must be a regulated qualified financial institution.


· Clear Definition as a Payment Medium: The bill explicitly defines stablecoin as a new type of payment medium, primarily regulated by the banking regulatory system, rather than restricted by the securities or commodities regulatory system.


· Embracing Existing Stablecoins: A maximum 18-month grace period after the bill's enactment, aimed at encouraging existing stablecoin issuers (such as USDT, USDC, etc.) to promptly obtain licenses or become compliant.


After finishing the main content, let's talk about the significance of this matter with an excited heart.


Over the years, when others asked, "After working in the Crypto industry for 16 years, what application have you created?"


In the future, you can confidently tell others—Stablecoins.


First, Clearing Concerns is a Prerequisite


Some people have held opposing views. In the past, people's impression of stablecoins was that they were an opaque black box. Every few months, there would be FUD — whether Tether's assets were frozen or Circle had a significant black hole deficit.


In fact, if you think about it, Tether easily rakes in billions of dollars a year just from the interest on those underlying government bonds. Circle, slightly less, also made a $1.7 billion profit last year.


They basically made money while standing there. From a motivational standpoint, they have no malicious intentions. In fact, they are the most eager for compliance.


Now, this opaque black box will become a transparent white box.


In the past, the only complaint was that Tether's funds might have been frozen by the United States. Now, they will be directly placed into U.S. compliant custodial institutions, with high-frequency disclosures, so you can rest assured.


【No need to worry about a rug pull】 is such a huge advantage—I think especially all Crypto people understand this.


Second, Mastering the Standard is Very Important


Stablecoins were once almost on the verge of being overtaken by CBDCs. In any country, if a central bank digital currency really exists, it is highly likely not built on a blockchain, at most it is built on some internal central bank consortium chain, which to be honest, is meaningless.


When CBDCs were at their peak, that was the most dangerous time for stablecoins.


If CBDCs had become a reality back then, stablecoins today would have been relentlessly suppressed into a dark corner, and blockchain would only be able to play a minimal role.


The remaining half-dead stablecoins would even have to learn the standards of central bank digital currencies, completely relinquishing their standard-setting power.


And now, stablecoins have won (or are about to).


Instead, everyone should learn the 【Blockchain + Token】 standard.


Nowadays, many blockchains actually have no meaningful applications on top, only stablecoin transfers. For example, with Aptos, the only scenario I use Aptos for is transfers between Binance and OKX.


And now, stablecoins will be legislated, what does that mean?


That's right, blockchain will become the only standard.


In the future, every stablecoin user will be the first to learn how to use a wallet.


As an aside, I actually think Ethereum's concerted push for EIP-7702 is quite forward-thinking. While other chains are all about memes, thank you Ethereum for sticking to account abstraction.



EIP-7702 is about Account Abstraction, which can support, for example:


· Social Account Registration Wallet

· Paying GAS with Native Coin

· And more


This paves the way for future new users to heavily use stablecoins, solving the last-mile problem.


Third, Deposit Enters a New Era


Furthermore, once stablecoins receive legislative support, deposits and withdrawals will become even easier.


Let's imagine a scenario: previously, hindered by the gray nature of stablecoins, but after the bill passes, many traditional brokerages can support stablecoins themselves. The money from a US stock investor can be converted into stablecoins in minutes and instantly deposited into Coinbase. Believe it or not.



Let's imagine another scenario: if the brilliant bill smoothly passes through the House of Representatives, next, you will see:


Due to the extremely lucrative nature of this trading, existing stablecoin leaders and newly entering traditional giants will crazily start promoting their stablecoin products.


And an outsider, due to these promotions, will start using stablecoins. And then one day, after finding out that the wallet account has been created, will explore Bitcoin inside. Is mining Bitcoin difficult?


Stablecoins are a huge Trojan horse. The moment you start using stablecoins, you unwittingly step half a foot into the Crypto world.


Fourth, Conclusion


As a large reservoir for digesting US debt, although stablecoins cannot directly absorb debt, they at least provide ammunition for the US debt secondary market. These functions are quite important, and slowly, stablecoins are becoming a part of the US debt market's body. Therefore, once the US legislation is passed and experiences the benefits, there is no turning back.


And, we are also confident that stablecoins are indeed one of the great innovations in our industry. People who have used stablecoins will find it hard to return to the traditional cash-banking system.


Once the bill is passed, users can't go back. In the future, concerns are about to be resolved, standards will be mastered, and the era of large deposits seems to be on the horizon.


Original Article Link

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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating

On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.



On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.


Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.


In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.


Side Effects of ETFs


Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.



Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.


According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.


This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.


Chart showing the trend of net outflows for Grayscale among the 11 institutions


Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.



In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.


According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.



However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.


The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.


Robinhood Takes a Stand, Traditional Brokerages Join the Fray


On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.



With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.


In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.



Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.



Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.



User Data Breach: Is Coinbase Still Secure?


In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.


Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.


Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.


Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.


Visualization: ChatGPT, Source: Farside


In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.


Visualization: ChatGPT


Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.


CEXs are All in Self-Rescue Mode


Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.



Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.


Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.



Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.


With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.


However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.


In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.


The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.


Arthur Hayes: Why I'm Betting on ETH While the Market Is Obsessed with SOL

"I personally have also allocated 20% to gold, expecting the price of gold to potentially rise to $10,000-20,000 by the end of this market cycle."

Key Market Insights for May 16th, how much did you miss out on?

1. On-chain Flows: $111.3M inflow to Ethereum this week; $237.6M outflow from Berachain 2. Largest Price Swings: $ETHFI, $NEIRO 3. Top News: Data: Solana Network's revenue reached $7.9M on the 13th, surpassing the sum of all other L1 and L2 chains

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