How to Get Rich in Crypto Without Relying on Luck? Financial Veteran Raoul Pal's Macro Insights and Investment Path

By: blockbeats|2025/05/12 03:30:01
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Original Title: Raoul Pal: How to Get Rich in Crypto (without getting lucky) | E120
Original Source: When Shift Happens
Original Translation: KarenZ, Foresight News

Raoul Pal, the former Goldman Sachs executive, author of the book "Global Macro Investor," and the founder of Real Vision, is renowned for his accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crisis. Recently, in a conversation with "When Shift Happens" and a speech at the Dubai Sui Basecamp, Raoul Pal delved into how to accumulate wealth steadily in the cryptocurrency field. He discussed topics such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Meme coins, AI, NFTs, the Sui ecosystem, Strategy Bitcoin Strategy, investment strategies, macro trends, and market developments.

Raoul Pal's Insights from When Shift Happens

1. How to Get Rich in Crypto without Relying on Luck?

How can one get rich in Crypto without relying on luck? Simply buy Bitcoin and adopt the DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy. Newcomers often fall into the trap of seeking fast wealth, which is actually full of risks. When one starts to envy others' 100x returns, they have already entered a dangerous territory. At this point, if they lose rationality and succumb to greed, they are very likely to mess up their investments. The Crypto space is full of risks, such as DeFi attacks and wallet thefts, which require investors to remain vigilant and stay rational.

2. About Meme Coins

Regarding Meme coins, Raoul Pal mentioned that he does not hold Fartcoin but holds SCF (Smoking Chicken Fish) and DODE. Although SCF has dropped by 90%, it is currently showing a good rebound trend. He specifically warns investors that whether holding Fartcoin, WIF, or BONK, and other Meme coins, they should not occupy a large percentage in their investment portfolio because these coins have up to an 85% chance of going to zero. He was even surprised that LUNA did not evolve into a Meme coin, as he thought people would crazily buy into it.

3. Stay Away from Market Panic, Embrace Value Investing

If investors feel panicked about the market, Pal suggests calmly returning to life and staying away from the trading screen. Those 5-minute candlestick charts, 1-hour candlestick charts actually do not provide substantial help for investment decisions. Many people fantasize about becoming successful traders, earning 100x returns, but the reality is, those who truly accumulate wealth in this field are the investors who persist in buying and holding long term.

4. Beware of Crypto Yield Risk

Regarding Crypto Yield, such as earning rewards through staking, there is also risk involved. For ordinary investors, when faced with an opportunity that seems to offer a 20% return, they must be acutely aware of the risks involved.

5. How to View Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Purchase Strategy?

Strategy's Bitcoin strategy is creating leverage in the system. Strategy acquires Bitcoin by issuing convertible bonds, which is essentially selling options at a lower cost. After arbitrageurs (option traders) purchase these options, they hedge on the trading platform to deal with Bitcoin price volatility and the risk of MicroStrategy stock options. At the same time, arbitrageurs also take advantage of the fluctuation in the ratio between MicroStrategy's NAV and Bitcoin price for arbitrage, and engage in trading using market tools such as perpetual contracts and spot price differentials, futures and spot differentials.

Currently, the buyers of Strategy's convertible bonds are mostly TradFi hedge funds and other institutions; sovereign wealth funds like Norway's central bank may only value the Bitcoin element in them. Large hedge funds like Citadel, Millennium, Point72 are also engaged in arbitrage. These institutions are experienced in risk management, may receive systemic support, control position size reasonably, and are less likely to be liquidated. In sharp contrast, those traders who use excessive leverage face enormous risks, and cases of trading failures due to excessive leverage in the market are common.

6. Raoul Pal's Capital Allocation

Regarding capital allocation, Raoul Pal states that Sui accounts for 70%, far surpassing Solana now. Sui's adoption and developer activity have been impressive. In addition, he also owns some DEEP (DeepBook), which is a liquidity layer protocol in the Sui ecosystem.

Seven, The Value and Potential of NFTs

As an innovative technology that allows for the permanent storage and trading of non-fungible assets, Pal is optimistic about the future of NFTs. Taking a macro perspective, the current size of the Crypto industry is $3 trillion. Assuming it grows to $100 trillion in the next 10 years, it will create $97 trillion in massive wealth. Even with a conservative estimate of reaching $50 trillion, it will still generate an incremental wealth of $47 trillion.

This wealth will flow to different people. Art is the upstream of everything, and digital art as an emerging field is poised to become a significant destination for wealth. In the realm of digital art, we have XCOPY and Beeple, which have sparked the generative art movement. I have spent a lot of time talking to some very famous individuals who are very interested in this field. After earning enough money, Crypto OGs have a strong desire to collect art. For example, owning a CryptoPunk symbolizes your identity and can connect you with like-minded individuals. From institutions to ultra-high-net-worth individuals, to ordinary people, everyone is starting to realize the importance of digital art. We are still in the early stages. I hold a lot of art, and I think this is a span of over 10 years.

Eight, Ethereum's Advantages and Prospects

Regarding Ethereum, the network capacity of Ethereum has surpassed the current system requirements and may adjust some mechanisms in the future, returning to Layer1. The position of EVM is like Microsoft, where many banks, insurance companies, and large enterprises around the world rely on Microsoft, not Apple or Google.

Once you have an enterprise sales model, it is almost impossible to remove it from the company because you don't want to change it, and you don't want to take risks. From the Lindy effect (the longer something has existed, the more likely it is to continue to exist in the future), Ethereum has stood the test of time and can meet the needs of the financial market well. Will Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan build on Solana? Unlikely. Ethereum may bring a whole new narrative to the market and is expected to outperform Bitcoin in the short term. Looking ahead five years, unless they mess up everything, its importance will become more and more prominent.

Concepts like the Bitcoin Lightning Network and payments have limited impact on price appreciation; the core value of Bitcoin lies in its role as a store of value, and the same will happen with ETH.

Nine, About AI

The development trend of AI is rapid, and its performance has surpassed 99% of analysts. After deep consideration, Pal believes that the rise of AI has raised profound questions about consciousness and the future role of humans. He advises people to actively engage, deeply understand, and skillfully apply AI technology.

Secondly, we don't know what this means for employment, how we create wealth, and so on, but I know, what is the thing that humans are best at? What is the thing that humans can do that AI cannot? It is to be human.

I have developed an AI, Raoul, that can read the news daily, which is also written by AI, and I have also built a chatbot trained on its own voice, with training data covering all of its X content, YouTube content, and 100 books. Today, Real Vision users are already able to interact with this chatbot. Pal predicts that soon these two technologies will merge, bringing a transformation that will have a profound impact on the podcast and media industry, where every piece of media content individuals encounter will have a unique personality. Moreover, human memory and behavior may ultimately become the "fuel" for AI, achieving a kind of "immortality" in a sense.

10. Market Attention and Selection of Quality Projects

This is a game of attention. People's focus on key tokens is scattered, and the duration of many narratives is also relatively short. Pal emphasizes that holding Bitcoin has always been a wise choice. In addition, buying Solana at the bottom of the cycle and buying SUI last year are also good strategies.

Investors should focus their attention on the top 10 or top 20 tokens, with a particular focus on projects that can sustainably increase network adoption, as these projects often have higher investment value. According to Metcalfe's Law, project potential can be assessed based on active users, total transaction value, and user value.

The Bitcoin network has a large number of users and participation from sovereign nations, which is why Bitcoin is more valuable. Ethereum has a large user base and a rich ecosystem of applications. Although the emergence of Layer 2 has made the situation slightly more complex, it still holds significant value. Investors should actively look for projects with double-digit growth in user numbers and valuable applications, such as Solana during the bottom of the cycle, where the developer community continues to grow, the user base remains stable, and the emergence of Bonk further enhances market confidence in Solana (Note: The host mentioned in a previous conversation with Toly that Mad Lads was a turning point for Solana); Sui is similar.

Raoul Pal's Keynote Speech at Sui Basecamp in Dubai

1. Macro Core Factors: Liquidity and currency devaluation. Cryptocurrency and the economy follow a four-year cycle driven by the debt refinancing cycle. Since the global debt peaked in 2008, we have been maintaining economic operations by borrowing to pay off old debts.

2. Population Aging and Economic Growth: Population aging has led to a slowdown in economic growth, requiring more debt support to sustain GDP growth. This phenomenon is widespread globally, and the dynamic can be clearly observed through a debt-to-GDP correlation chart.

How to Get Rich in Crypto Without Relying on Luck? Financial Veteran Raoul Pal's Macro Insights and Investment Path

3. Liquidity Drives Everything: The Fed's net liquidity is a key indicator. From 2009 to 2014, liquidity was mainly provided through balance sheet expansion, and later tools like bank reserve adjustments were added. Currently, total liquidity (including M2) is crucial, with astonishing explanatory power for the trends of Bitcoin (90% correlation) and Nasdaq (97% correlation).

4. Currency Devaluation Mechanism: Currency devaluation is akin to a global tax, with a global 8% implicit inflation tax per year, plus 3% explicit inflation, meaning you need an 11% annual return to maintain wealth. This explains why young people are flocking to the crypto space—traditional assets (real estate, stocks, etc.) are providing insufficient returns, forcing them to choose high-risk assets for excess returns.

5. Wealth Disparity and Crypto Opportunity: The wealthy hold scarce assets, while the poor rely on labor income (which loses purchasing power annually). The crypto system has disrupted this pattern—young people are seeking breakthroughs through high-risk assets.

6. Crypto Asset Performance: Annualized at 130% since 2012 (including three major pullbacks), Ethereum at 113%, Solana at 142%. Bitcoin has seen a cumulative surge of 2.75 million times, a rarity in the investment field, with crypto assets gradually becoming an attractive "supermassive black hole" for funds.

7. Sui Ecosystem Holds Tremendous Potential. DEEP (DeepBook Liquidity Layer Protocol) has recently shown the best performance. The SOL/SUI ratio indicates SUI's relative strength.

8. Analysis of Current Market Misjudgments: People often interpret the current market narrative (such as tariff fears) based on liquidity conditions from three months ago, but this approach is biased. In reality, the financial conditions tightened in the fourth quarter of 2024 (with rising U.S. dollar rates and oil prices), resulting in a three-month lagging effect. The Economic Surprise Index (U.S. versus global comparison) indicates that the current economic weakness is only a temporary phenomenon. Looking back at the 2017 Trump tariff cycle, the dollar first rose and then fell, followed by liquidity driving a significant price surge in assets.

9. Global M2 and Asset Relationship: When global M2 hits a new high, asset prices should rise in tandem. Taking Bitcoin as an example, its price trend usually shows a breakthrough, a pullback, and then accelerates in the "Banana Zone." Compared to the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin saw a 23x increase in that year. Although the current market is different, a significant increase is still expected. The market is currently in the correction phase after the breakthrough of the first part of the "Banana Zone," about to enter the second part, which typically sees the rise of altcoins.

10. Business Cycle and Bitcoin Trend: The ISM Manufacturing Index is an important leading indicator. When this index breaks through 50, it signifies a return to economic growth, increased corporate earnings, active reinvestment of funds, and a rapid rise in Bitcoin price. If the ISM index reaches 57, the Bitcoin price may even reach $450,000. As the business cycle heats up and household cash increases, risk appetite rises, and at this point, the investment logic for altcoins is similar to that of junk bonds and small-cap stocks.

Note: Raoul Pal is also a member of the Sui Foundation Board.

Original Article Link

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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating

On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.



On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.


Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.


In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.


Side Effects of ETFs


Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.



Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.


According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.


This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.


Chart showing the trend of net outflows for Grayscale among the 11 institutions


Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.



In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.


According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.



However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.


The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.


Robinhood Takes a Stand, Traditional Brokerages Join the Fray


On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.



With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.


In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.



Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.



Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.



User Data Breach: Is Coinbase Still Secure?


In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.


Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.


Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.


Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.


Visualization: ChatGPT, Source: Farside


In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.


Visualization: ChatGPT


Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.


CEXs are All in Self-Rescue Mode


Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.



Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.


Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.



Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.


With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.


However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.


In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.


The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.


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