Has Pump's Bullet Hit the Bullseye, Is Solana's Story Over?

By: blockbeats|2025/02/27 10:15:02
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Original Title: "Did Pump's Bullet Hit Solana Right Between the Eyes?"
Original Source: ChainCatcher

Pump's Bullet Hit Right Between the Eyes

Just a moment ago, Alon, co-founder of Pump.fun, posted that Pump.fun's official X account was hacked and used to release a scam token called "PUMP," warning users to be cautious of the risk.

As the most active meme coin launch platform in the Solana ecosystem, Pump.fun once became a myth of retail investors' wealth creation with a dual-phase mechanism of "internal hatching + external eruption." The token first accumulated liquidity within the platform through the Bonding Curve mechanism. When the trading volume exceeded the $69,000 threshold, it automatically migrated to the leading DEX, Raydium, to establish a liquidity pool, completing the closed-loop from project initiation to market hype. This precisely designed rule set has been operating wildly since 2024:

From April 1 last year to today, tokens launched from Pump.fun contributed $346 billion in trading volume to Raydium, accounting for half of the DEX's total volume. Out of the total $197 million fees collected by the platform, an astonishing $104 million came from Pump.fun's trades.

Has Pump's Bullet Hit the Bullseye, Is Solana's Story Over?

However, when celebrities like Trump entered with "flash-like" tokens (such as TRUMP, MELANIA), the game of pass-the-parcel began to reveal its naked harvesting logic. On-chain data shows that over 70% of meme coins displayed a "peak upon pool creation" trend during the external phase, with an average survival time of less than 48 hours.

A more dangerous signal comes from the comprehensive retreat of liquidity. On February 24, among the tokens graduated from Pump.fun, only one had a market value barely exceeding a million dollars, and the on-chain speculative frenzy has almost frozen. Raydium's meme coin trading depth has shrunk by over 90% from its peak, and Solana's on-chain stablecoin market value has seen a net outflow of over $1 billion in the past 30 days, marking the largest fund outflow since the FTX crash.

This collapse is not incidental. When project teams, trading platforms, and celebrities form a "harvesting iron triangle," when the mathematical model of the Bonding Curve turns into a tool for liquidation, retail investor confidence has long been worn away in the repeated "sell-offs from the start" theatrics. The malfunction of Pump.fun is not only a microcosm of Solana's liquidity crisis but also a brutal interrogation of the entire crypto world's meme narrative—when the bubble deflates, the revelry ends, who will clean up this capital-devastated wasteland?

SOL Hits High and Plunges Over 50%, Ecosystem in Turmoil

As one of the most prominent public chain tokens of 2024, Solana rode the wave of Pump and meme to surge ahead, with a nearly 200% increase throughout the year.

However, since Trump's token release on Solana on January 18, this wave seems to have finally hit the shore: SOL's price first hit a historic high of $295 on January 19, then made a sharp turn downwards, with a decline of over 50% at one point.

With only 3 days left until Solana's largest-ever token unlock (worth $2 billion), there will be 11.2 million SOL unlocked for circulation, with most of them acquired from the FTX auction at a cost of $64 each, potentially creating significant selling pressure.

In addition to the poor token price performance, according to Defillama data, Solana's ecosystem TVL has dropped from its peak of $12.19 billion to today's $7.22 billion, and daily transaction fee revenue is also steadily decreasing.

Furthermore, the 24-hour net inflow data of the Solana ecosystem shows that $260 million flowed out in just two days on January 18 and 19, and the subsequent inflows have also been decreasing, far from the levels seen during the Pump period.

Moreover, a series of other indicators paint a bleak picture, with mainstream protocol tokens in the Solana ecosystem showing a downtrend over the past seven days:

Chart of Solana Ecosystem Performance on Rootdata

Overall, the ecosystem is presenting a scene of "the tree falling and the monkeys dispersing."

This inevitably begs the question: Has Solana's story come to an end?

Solana Labs Co-founder toly is also Afraid of a Crash!

Facing the risk of a token price collapse, the Solana ecosystem is going through its biggest fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) since the FTX rug pull. Some analysts have estimated that, throughout the entire meme coin hype cycle, scammers have pocketed over $10 billion.

Facing the unavoidable reality, many community members have also responded.

As a co-founder of Solana Labs, toly has always advocated for benign technical development and innovation. He has also repeatedly called on builders to return to innovation and create high-quality projects. Although not directly attacking, his conversations with other community members in X have repeatedly revealed his dissatisfaction with Pump. Faced with questions from long-time supporters, he even made the response, "The assholes that mess with markets to max extract can go f』 themselves." And the group to which this refers is self-evident.

Crypto influencer @cobie has also repeatedly pointed out the issues with the PVP mode. He stated, "The current market's development context is that market participants actively rush into these scams like moths, and most people know these are scams, but the goal is to sell to the bagholders at triple the price. They just want to get rich quick in 2 weeks, not 2-4 years. Players hope to also win big in the next move."

Of course, the community is also making attempts at self-rescue. Solana introduced the SIMD-0228 proposal on February 26, setting a 50% target staking rate. If the staking rate exceeds 50%, the issuance will decrease, and the yield will decrease; if it is less than 50%, the issuance will increase, and the yield will increase. The minimum inflation rate is 0%, and the maximum inflation rate is based on the current issuance curve. The proposal aims to shift the SOL issuance to a market-driven model.

In addition, the Solana spot ETF has become another lifesaver—according to prediction platform Polymarket data, the market believes that the approval probability by 2025 is as high as 85.4%, and the probability of approval by June has also increased to 34%. If this comes true, following the cumulative billions in funds from Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF, Solana may see a multi-billion-dollar injection of liquidity.

Solana's dilemma is by no means unique but a microcosm of the entire industry's "speculation biting back at innovation."

As summarized by influencer @0xNing0x: "We are now in the settlement moment of this cycle. The P young talents are the MVPs, Solana, Pump.fun, Jupiter are the best supports, TRUMP is the AFK player, AI16Z is the AFK player, JLP holders are the AFK players. On the losing side, SVP is the Base and Virtual, Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, ZkSync, Starknet are the noob top, mid, jungle, and support."

Currently, Solana may only have two possible paths forward: either rely on external capital such as an ETF to forcibly extend its life, but potentially deepen its dependence on the financial casino path; or follow Toly's advocated "bitter medicine" approach, endure short-term pain, and rebuild developer confidence.

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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating

On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.



On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.


Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.


In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.


Side Effects of ETFs


Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.



Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.


According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.


This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.


Chart showing the trend of net outflows for Grayscale among the 11 institutions


Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.



In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.


According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.



However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.


The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.


Robinhood Takes a Stand, Traditional Brokerages Join the Fray


On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.



With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.


In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.



Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.



Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.



User Data Breach: Is Coinbase Still Secure?


In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.


Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.


Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.


Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.


Visualization: ChatGPT, Source: Farside


In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.


Visualization: ChatGPT


Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.


CEXs are All in Self-Rescue Mode


Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.



Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.


Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.



Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.


With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.


However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.


In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.


The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.


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