TrumpCoin Enriches Chinese, Sparks Division in US Crypto Community
On the eve of the inauguration of the President of the United States, Trump pulled off a major stunt for the American people and the world. In the final two days before the Emoluments Clause of the U.S. Constitution took effect for himself, the Trump family siphoned off billions of dollars from the crypto world through a MEME coin.
The "U.S. President Leads Coin Launch" was truly an unprecedented event, and the extent of the $TRUMP token's circulation and wealth creation effect was unparalleled. In just one weekend, its daily trading volume on the Binance platform surpassed one hundred billion dollars, even briefly surpassing BTC. From Wall Street's financial institutions to the elders on the Bund, the whole world was inquiring about how to join this feast.
Interestingly, this true-blue American "MEME Coin" unexpectedly made Chinese crypto enthusiasts one of the largest beneficiary groups. Since the token was issued during the night in the Eastern U.S. time zone, most American citizens did not seize the trading opportunity immediately. According to on-chain data and social media information, over half of the addresses that profited over a million dollars were from the Chinese community. At the same time, due to legal controversies and disagreements, Trump's "playful move" also sparked serious divisions within the crypto community.
Coin Launch Timeline Review
On January 18, the incoming U.S. President, Trump, announced on his social media account the launch of his personal Meme coin $TRUMP, where users could obtain the Meme token by visiting the official website. The website stated that TRUMP was the only "Official Trump Meme Coin."
The gettrumpmemes website indicated that 80% of the TRUMP coin's supply was held by entities affiliated with the Trump Group, CIC Digital, and CIC-owned entity Fight Fight Fight LLC. The website also stated that the initial supply of TRUMP coins on the first day was 2 billion, with an estimated total supply of 10 billion over three years, distributed gradually over three years. CIC Digital and its affiliates would receive income generated from TRUMP transactions, locked up for 3-12 months, and unlocked over the next 24 months.

Initially, the market had doubts about this news, speculating that Trump's account might have been hacked. However, hours later, the post remained unaltered and without denial, and the TRUMP coin surged rapidly. Twelve hours after the token was launched, its trading price reached around $30, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $300 billion. By 8 p.m. on January 19, Beijing time, according to CoinMarketCap data, the price of the TRUMP coin had risen to a peak of $85.2 within a day and a half of its launch, with a total circulating market cap of $852 billion. Trump's net worth soared by $68.16 billion (approximately 4.9893 trillion RMB), over ten times higher than before the coin launch. On the 19th, Binance, Coinbase, and OKX also announced the listing of TRUMP (OFFICIAL TRUMP) for spot trading. Aside from Trump and sol, which was used to purchase Trump, all other tokens experienced a sharp decline, with ETH dropping to a low of $3,127, down 12% from the early hours of the 18th. Other meme tokens, AI agent tokens, etc., all experienced varying degrees of decline.

Image Source: CoinMarketCap
As $Trump was reaching the peak of his popularity and experiencing extreme FOMO, Trump's wife, Melania, also took advantage of the situation by launching her own cryptocurrency on the Solana blockchain, called MELANIA. On the 20th, Melania posted on social media, stating, "Melania Official Meme is live," along with a purchase link.

The Trump family's coin launch seemed to strike the market like a follow-the-leader move. While MELANIA surged to a market value of $120 amid the FOMO sentiment, all other coins experienced a sharp decline. TRUMP's market value plummeted from $75 billion to $35 billion, SOL dropped from $176 to $235, and Bitcoin saw a 6% drop in a short period. The crypto community angrily criticized the Trump family for treating cryptocurrency as their family's "ATM," blurring the line between governmental role and commercial interests. Many media outlets questioned the Trump family's coin issuance behavior and opposed and criticized this fundraising activity.
Riding the Hype While Holding the Bag: The Wealthy Asian Crypto Trader vs. the American Retail Investor Buying for Faith
Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the Global Times in China, commented on Trump's coin launch, stating, "Capitalism! It turns out the presidency can be monetized this way! Mr. Trump has truly broadened my horizons as someone living in a socialist country." But perhaps what surprised this former professional media person even more was that, apart from the "pump and dump," the ones who profited the most from this presidential coin issuance were the Asian on-chain traders.
The chart below shows the TRUMP price trend based on US Eastern Time, with the coin's launch on Friday, January 17th at 9 p.m. From the chart, it can be observed that the significant price surges on January 18th and 19th mainly occurred during the Asian trading hours.

New York Time TRUMP Price Trend Chart
On January 18th, just one hour after the TRUMP coin launch and as its market cap crossed the $100 million mark, the community compiled a list of the top profit-taking addresses for TRUMP. It was found that 10 Chinese Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) made profits exceeding $1 million each.

Image Source: ChainNews
When TRUMP's market cap rose to $15 billion, just 4 hours after the coin was launched, Chinese KOL 0xSun announced his TRUMP PnL on X, with a total cost of 3010 SOL and a profit of $10 million. A day later, 0xSun transferred TRUMP to a CEX and last updated his PnL, showing a profit of $27.5 million.

"It's been 4 hours, but also 3 years since I entered the circle and started living on the chain, sitting still for over 10 hours a day on average," 0xSun wrote in a tweet. As TRUMP's market cap soared past $30 billion, in the Chinese community, apart from astonishment and regret for not getting in at the bottom, some were also reflecting on why they missed this opportunity. Xinfini founder Christian provided an answer, stating that without a certain amount of initial capital and going all in at the first opportunity on the Solana chain, one could not achieve great results with TRUMP.

In contrast, the performance of U.S. retail investors appeared more passive. The number of open profit-taking positions in the English-speaking community on Trump's coin issuance was much lower, with even top meme KOL Ansem exiting at a loss.
The address marked as Ansem made a purchase on the morning of January 19th Beijing time, when TRUMP's market cap had already exceeded $30 billion. At that time, the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Kraken had just launched TRUMP spot trading. On January 20th, as Robinhood announced support for TRUMP, Ansem further bought TRUMP, and on January 21st, Ansem sold all TRUMP, with a total loss kept within $80,000.

U.S. YouTuber voidzilla directly criticized in a video, saying, "This behavior is unprecedented in terms of stupidity and fraud, using the days leading up to the presidential inauguration to promote a hype project. Such a scam is simply mind-boggling. With only two days left until the inauguration, he should have been busy writing his inaugural speech instead of launching a meme coin. At a crucial moment in the presidential election, using power to hype like this not only breaks historical records but also blatantly tramples on all moral boundaries."
However, the President's brand was still irresistibly attractive to retail investors. Just on January 18, Moonshot added approximately 400,000 new users. Twitter was filled with posts about how to use Moonshot to purchase TRUMP, with some users even complaining about its complexity. In one discussion about the purchasing process, someone recommended using the Phantom wallet, to which another user replied, "I just wanted to deposit some cash or dollars, but it forces me to buy SOL, Bitcoin, or something like that."
Additionally, due to the inability of U.S. banks to process large deposits or fund transfers over the weekend, further restricting American investors' profits in TRUMP, the delayed fund flow caused U.S. retail investors to miss a crucial entry window, becoming liquidity providers in the later stages of the price surge.
On one hand, Asia-based traders who are always on-chain found the asset at the right time and heavily entered the market. On the other hand, the U.S. trading group had compliant channels for purchasing Moonshot combined with adoration for their national leader, causing them to overlook early chips and be willing to serve as exit liquidity for the President and whales.
How Much Money Did the Trump Family Make from the Cryptocurrency Market?
After Trump's wife, Melania, released a token under her name, the price of $Trump also plummeted from $78 to $35. With the news of $Trump being listed on RobinHOOD, the price rose again. The coordinated news and market-making activities in recent days make one sigh at the terrifying conspiracy of capital behind the scenes, quietly utilizing every exit liquidity to the fullest. This is not the first time the Trump team has made money in the blockchain field, but it is the most sensational. So, how much money did the Trump team make in the cryptocurrency field.
Cryptocurrency Political Donations
As the first president to accept cryptocurrency political donations, he unprecedentedly accepted not only BTC on his official website but also mainstream altcoins like ETH and SOL, as well as meme coins like Dogecoin. In the end, the value of cryptocurrency received exceeded $4 million, while his industry supporters in the crypto field also received millions in traditional investments.

Raking in $20 Million in NFTs was Just a Small Start
In December 2022, Trump announced the launch of the first set of Trump-themed NFTs. These trading cards featured Trump playing various roles, with a total of 45,000 cards priced at $99 each. Within 24 hours, the NFTs sold out, directly bringing Trump $4.5 million. This also allowed the then non-pro-cryptocurrency Trump to taste success. Similar products were released continuously by the Trump team on Polygon, including four series "one of which is a rare special edition," as well as a series on Bitcoin. The sale of nearly 200,000 Trump trading card NFTs and royalties brought the Trump team over $20 million in revenue.

The key figure behind the scenes of this series is CIC Digital LLC, a company founded by former President Trump's lawyer John Marion and former advisor Nick Luna in 2021. The issuer of the "Trump Digital Trading Cards" NFT INT LLC stated on its website that it is an independent entity and that "NFT INT LLC" does not belong to, is not managed by, or under the control of Donald J. Trump. Instead, it obtained authorization to use Trump's name and likeness by purchasing it from CIC Digital LLC to create and sell this NFT series. However, upon further investigation of NFT INT LLC, their website lists a contact address at a UPS store in Park City, Utah, USA. However, the registered address is in Cheyenne, the capital of Wyoming, also known as the "American Little Cayman Islands," located approximately 480 kilometers away from Park City, indicating that this company is likely one of the many ghost companies.
《Trump's NFT 10x in 2 days, was the former president the issuer himself?》

Targeted Hunt for DeFi Newbies, $300M Not Enough to Fill the Gap

World Liberty Fi was jointly launched by former President Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump. Donald Trump Jr. emphasized that this is not just a meme coin but a project dedicated to providing top-notch decentralized financial and banking tools while strictly adhering to relevant regulations to ensure user safety. Interestingly, with the buzz surrounding Trump's $Trump Memecoin, the Trump family's DeFi project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), sold out its 20 billion tokens in its public sale this morning at a price of $0.015 per token, raising a total of $300 million. Among the participants was Justin Sun, the owner of the well-known Tron chain, who contributed $30 million and announced an additional $45 million investment in the name of Tron DAO.
As the initially allocated 20% of the public sale was sold out, WLFI generously opened up an additional 5% allocation for the community to purchase. If this additional allocation is also filled, the on-chain address holding the $300 million could receive an additional $75 million.

It is worth noting that WLFI, in the two days leading up to the $Trump launch, suddenly reduced its accumulation of nearly 17,000 Ethereum held in the address for months to 1,200 Ethereum "transferred to Coinbase or another address." This was followed by a significant depletion of on-chain assets during the $Trump vampire attack, as many ETH whales switched to Solana. Starting on the 19th, multiple purchases of Ethereum were made, and the current holdings have exceeded 42,000 Ethereum, executing a successful swing trade that turned Ethereum's losses into gains. This action also caused Ethereum to surpass one-third of the total assets held in that address.

The Ultimate Weapon, an unprecedented Crypto large-scale consolidation event

This is probably the chart you've seen the most in recent days: the US President launching a Memecoin. While it seemed impossible, the idea came to life with Trump, where the Trump family, having worked hard for three generations, finally amassed a family fortune of $4 billion. After releasing the Memecoin, the market capitalization reached $80 billion within two days, surpassing over a hundred years of struggle with just two days of global frenzy. At its peak, $Trump reached a market cap of $800 billion. Considering 20% of circulating supply, the actual market cap was $160 billion, but now it has dwindled to $60 billion. Additionally, the $10 billion of liquidity sucked in the market mostly vanished. Regardless of the market's reaction to the US President's influence, the impact of a single token on a market averaging $1 to $2 trillion is significant.

The entity responsible for the $Trump issuance is a company under the Trump family's umbrella, apart from the aforementioned Trump CIC Digital LLC, mainly known as Fight Fight Fight LLC. These two companies held 80% of the $Trump token allocation. While the total vesting period spans three years, the unlocking will occur in six phases, with the majority (40%) beginning to unlock in the third month. Although it is unknown how much insider traders benefited besides this 80%, based on the listing from Coinbase to Robinhood and the announcement by Moonshot that direct deposits from Robinhood are accepted, $Trump is likely to use the support of Trump's followers, funds from the traditional stock market, and plenty of newbies to sustain its hype and market cap for a considerable time. Thus, if 4% of the chips unlock after three months
Even if the market value is now half, it can still achieve a liquidity exit of tens of billions of dollars.

Meanwhile, the token of Trump's wife, the First Lady of the United States, $MELANIA, is similar to the token issued by Trump himself in that it is "unrelated" to Trump. The token is issued by MKT World, LLC, and information found in online records shows that Melania's position at the company is both a member and a manager. The company's address at 3505 SUMMIT BLVD. WEST PALM BEACH, FL 33406 is very close to the Trump family's residence in Florida.

The tokenomics of $MELANIA are somewhat different from $TRUMP. Team share 35%, treasury 20%, community 20%, public issuance 15%, liquidity 10%. The biggest difference lies in the token unlock rules, where Trump's team share requires a 3-year lockup, but Melania's team only needs to lock up for 30 days. Starting from day 30, the team share will unlock 10% first, followed by a gradual linear unlock from months 2-13 until the end of the 13th month. This short-term and unclear chip allocation has caused the token's market value to plummet rapidly from $15 billion all the way down by 33 billion, almost only 20% of the peak. Such hasty token unlock rules and rapid declines resemble a meme coin. It inevitably raises speculation as to whether this is just a means for $Trump to shake out weak hands.

Regardless, the Trump team had retained some rationality in their accumulation until a few days ago. However, Trump's recent actions have left people stunned. Regardless of the numerous disclaimers or exploitation of legal loopholes, it is an undeniable fact that before taking office as the President of the United States to "Make America Great Again," he first aimed to "Make Crime Great Again."

Pro-China Cryptocurrency Group Starts a Fight, Is the "Trump Crypto Faction" Also Divided?
In fact, not everyone supports Trump's direct coin issuance behavior. Previously, the Trump team's NFT issuance to earn $20 million was considered relatively "mild," and many community members had not yet reacted.
However, today's nature is completely different. In order to circumvent presidential investment restrictions, on the eve of taking office in "Goose City," the Trump couple directly utilized coin issuance, locking up coins, and early high-point buy-in sell-off, allowing the entire interest group behind them to achieve "risk-free profits" at the fastest speed.
There can be many harvesters in the crypto world, but the one who cannot be is the President. Many have expressed strong concerns about this.
VC investor Nick Tomaino wrote on Platform X: "Trump holds 80% of Trump Coin and scheduled the issuance just a few days before the inauguration ceremony. This is undoubtedly a predatory act, and many people may be harmed as a result."
Anthony Scaramucci, a banker who briefly served as White House Communications Director during Trump's last term (fired after 10 days), also criticized on Platform X: "Trump meme coins are harmful to the cryptocurrency industry, and we cannot deceive ourselves."

Image Source Community
More embarrassingly for the crypto world, initially, we made one political donation after another, we chanted "Fire Gary Gensler," we longed for a pro-crypto industry president, we hoped the crypto industry would receive more attention and liquidity.
Has it been achieved? Yes, it has. According to community and exchange platform staff, a well-known exchange platform usually had only a few hundred registered users and $700,000 in OTC transaction volume. However, on January 20, the number of registered users reached 120,000, and the OTC volume also reached $100 million. And the number of new user registrations on a top-tier exchange platform in three days also exceeded several million.
But the way it was achieved was not by treating Bitcoin as a U.S. national strategic reserve, not by approving a new batch of mainstream currencies through an ETF, not by enacting new crypto laws, but by launching meme coins that dried up most of the crypto world's liquidity.

Image Source: Community WeChat
It is neither dignified nor ethical. Many in the crypto community who once supported Trump have now openly expressed their opposition.
"What he did is absolutely absurd." Nic Carter, founding partner of the cryptocurrency investment firm Castle Island Ventures, once publicly admitted to being a Trump supporter, but he still said, "Launching a meme coin to explore this is just plain stupid."
Even during the election period, the crypto-friendly media outlet Bitcoin Magazine, which had previously been pro-Trump, publicly referred to TRUMP as a shitcoin on social media.

It is important to note that Trump was marketed as the "First Bitcoin President of the United States," and Bitcoin Magazine played a significant role in this. At the official Bitcoin 2024 conference hosted by the magazine, Trump took the stage to give a speech and announced the launch of a Bitcoin strategic reserve to ensure the U.S. becomes the world's crypto hub and a Bitcoin superpower. He also planned to dismiss the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Trump's crypto-friendly policies all began with this speech.
"In my view, this is nothing but a pump-and-dump, self-enrichment scam, an unethical act, and the investors involved (should I say 'fans') are extremely foolish." However, the authors of Bitcoin Magazine are now bluntly criticizing this. Related reading: "Bitcoin Magazine Criticizes $TRUMP: Trump Likes Cryptocurrency, as Long as It Can Be Used for Personal Gain"
The media's values are top-down, and although Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey was a Trump campaign advisor in the past, he is said to be among the pro-Trump crypto community members who tried to dissuade Trump from launching a coin.
He has repeatedly clarified on social media, "I have no association with Trump's memecoin, was not informed in advance, and have no financial interest," and "My advice and advocacy are all beneficial to Bitcoin and the nation."

As a cryptocurrency advisor during the election period, David Bailey's current position is more like a lubricant between Trump and the community. Even though he doesn't agree with Trump's coin issuance plan, he still tries to appease the community: "I am very grateful for everything Trump has done for Bitcoin and the entire industry and everything he is going to do," "Events such as Ross's release will be realized," "I will continue to do my best to support the President and his family's acceptance of Bitcoin and provide honest advice when needed"...

This also means that now the cryptos around Trump have split into two factions in terms of ideology.
One faction is Bitcoin Magazine, while the other faction opposite to Bitcoin Magazine is commonly referred to as the "Crypto Committee," whose members are personally appointed by Trump.
The chairman of the Crypto Committee is David Sacks, known as one of the founders of PayPal, who later became famous by creating Yammer and selling it to Microsoft for $1.2 billion. In the crypto circle, David Sacks' most important identity is as an investor in the crypto venture capital firm Multicoin and a Solana maximalist.
"One of the dumbest attacks against me this year is to say that I dumped SOL tokens on retail. If that were true, they should be rolling in money now. Congratulations to all SOL holders." Even when FTX blew up, Sacks never sold SOL.
Since $TRUMP is deployed on the Solana chain and when Trump issued $TRUMP coins, David Sacks has always remained silent on these "zero-sum meme coins." Therefore, many people believe that the chairman of the Crypto Committee was involved.

Another piece of evidence is that David Sacks has a "criminal record." In March 2024, David Sacks once posted about a memecoin named $Sacks after his own name.
Although when people started buying, he tweeted nine times telling them not to buy, this has already confirmed the evidence that he "once issued a coin," which is exactly the same as the $TRUMP coin issuance method. (According to community feedback, David Sacks recently deleted his posts about $Sacks.)

Image Source Community
This has made many people start to dislike David Sacks, feeling that his approach is too hasty and overly eager to profit through this aggressive means. Even if Sacks did not directly participate, as the chair of the Crypto Council, he should still be held responsible for this incident. There are even rumors that some have suggested that the entire leadership of David Sacks' Crypto Council be replaced with a new team.
According to a Washington cryptocurrency influencer who preferred to remain anonymous, almost everyone in the crypto field is currently vying for a seat on this council. Many crypto giants like a16z, Coinbase, Paradigm, Ripple, Kraken, and Circle are very interested in this, seeking to have a say in reforming U.S. crypto policy.
After all, the ordinary member seats on this Crypto Council are all very coveted positions, with David Sacks' words and actions as the council chair being crucial.
This is not the first time the Trump team has shown an unstable state. During the previous presidential term, there was a great deal of internal factional struggle and turnover within the Trump administration, with resignations being commonplace.
In addition to the competition for seats on the Crypto Council, in this term, the Trump team's internal political risk is also evident in other aspects.
Although not naming names, Messari founder Ryan Selkis tweeted urging Trump to dismiss the individuals behind the $MELANIA project. "The project team lacks expertise, may cause significant economic and reputational damage, and the project decisions do not adequately consider Trump's interests." Selkis pointed out the issues with $MELANIA.

Compared to the $TRUMP coin, the launch of Melania Trump's $MELANIA was indeed more hasty. The front-end code is incomplete, the images were not compressed, the website was only built the day before the project's launch, and the legal text is also not precise. Many netizens speculate that $MELANIA and $TRUMP have many differences in their approaches, possibly not operated by the same team.
「If my source is not mistaken, $TRUMP was propelled by the Crypto Tsar, while $MELANIA was created by the worldliberty team. However, it can be assured that these two coins were not created by the same team.」 More than one community member revealed.
The Erosion of Trust, How Long Does It Take?
TRUMP emerged during the time when Trump was about to take office, originally a shocking event that stunned the world and exhilarated the cryptocurrency community. We have always hoped that cryptocurrency could demonstrate a more compliant, stable, and secure image to the world, and under such aspirations, $TRUMP carried too many expectations of the cryptocurrency community—it emerged from the hands of the soon-to-be U.S. president, and who could not imagine that this would be the beginning of the new U.S. government further embracing cryptocurrency? How much new attention could this beginning attract to cryptocurrency with a historical positive image?
TRUMP emerged from Trump's hand, but unfortunately, it did not come from the hand of the "U.S. President" Trump, but from the hand of the "Businessman" Trump. The "U.S. President" Trump had the ability to issue and promote $TRUMP and even the entire cryptocurrency market with higher ethical standards and more comprehensive legal compliance standards, but the "Businessman" Trump displayed blatant greed and disregard for ethics, treating the cryptocurrency market as a cash cow for his own influence, eagerly issuing asset after asset to seize more benefits.
In the end, Trump only mentioned the cryptocurrency industry for votes. Did he really consider how to better promote the industry's development? What we have seen is a "big shot" who is completely self-centered, disregards basic industry rules and ethics, and considers himself superior to the entire cryptocurrency market. In Trump's eyes, the cryptocurrency market may not be much different from setting up a stall in front of his own house. As long as someone is willing to pay for his influence, he might think, what's wrong with his actions, and what's not right?
Melania's issuance of coins has become a helpless self-mockery within the cryptocurrency community—Trump and his family are mocking how foolish our unrealistic expectations are.
From a speculator's perspective, this is certainly a speculative heyday, with no better narrative and sense of predestination. But is it really good for the industry?
What Trump will lose is not only the trust of the cryptocurrency community in him but also the moral integrity and responsibility of a U.S. president.
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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1.Binance Alpha Launches HIPPO, BLUE, and Other Tokens
2.Believe Ecosystem Tokens See General Rise, LAUNCHCOIN Surges Over 250% in 24 Hours
3.Tiger Securities Introduces Cryptocurrency Deposit and Withdrawal Service, Supports Mainstream Cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH
4.Current Bitcoin Rally Possibly Driven by Institutions, Retail Traders Yet to Join
5.Binance Wallet's New TGE Privasea AI Participation Requires a 198 Point Threshold, with a Point Consumption of 15
Source: Overheard on CT (tg: @overheardonct), Kaito
PUMP: Today's discussions about PUMP focus on its new creator revenue-sharing model: the platform will allocate 50% of PumpSwap revenue to token creators, sparking varied reactions from users. Some criticize the move as insufficient or even misleading, while others view it as a positive step the platform is taking to reward creators. Meanwhile, PUMP faces market pressure from emerging competitors like LetsBONKfun and Raydium, which are rapidly gaining market share. Users also express concerns about PUMP's sustainability and potential regulatory risks in the U.S., with discussions extending to the platform's impact on the entire memecoin ecosystem.
COINBASE: Today, Coinbase became the first crypto company to join the S&P 500 Index, replacing Discover Financial Services, sparking widespread industry attention. The entire crypto community views this milestone as a significant development, signaling that crypto assets are further integrating into the mainstream financial system. The news has sparked lively discussions on Twitter, with many users pointing out that this may attract more institutional investors to enter the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets.
XRP: XRP became the focal point of today's crypto discussion, with its significant market movements and strategic advances drawing attention. XRP has surpassed USDT to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, sparking market excitement and discussions about its future potential. The surge in market capitalization and price is believed to be related to increasing institutional interest, deepening strategic partnerships, and its role in the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, XRP's integration into multiple financial systems and its potential as a macro asset class are also seen as key factors driving the current market sentiment.
DYDX: Today's discussions about DYDX mainly focused on the dYdX Yapper Leaderboard launched by KaitoAI. The leaderboard aims to identify the most active community participants, with a total of $150,000 in rewards to be distributed over the first three seasons. This initiative has sparked broad community participation, with many users discussing the potential rewards and the incentive effect on the DYDX ecosystem. Meanwhile, progress on the ethDYDX to dYdX native chain migration and historical airdrop events have also been topics of discussion.
1. "What Is 'ICM'? Holding Up the $4 Billion Market Cap Solana's New Narrative"
Overnight, the hottest narrative in the crypto space has become "Internet Capital Markets," with a host of crypto projects and founders, led by the Solana ecosystem's new Launchpad platform Believe, releasing this phrase. Together with "Believe in something," it has become the new slogan heralding the onset of a bull market. What exactly is the so-called "Internet Capital Market," will it become a short-lived hype phrase like the Base ecosystem's previous Content Coin, and what related targets are available for selection?2.《LaunchCoin Surges 20x in One Day, How Did Believe Create a $200M Market Cap Shiba Inu After Going to Zero?|100x Retrospective》
LAUNCHCOIN broke through a $200 million market cap today, with the long-lost liquidity and such a high market cap "Memecoin" almost bringing half of the on-chain crypto community CT into the fray. The community is crazily discussing this token, with half of it being FOMO and the other half being FUD. This token, originally issued by Believe founder Ben Pasternak under his personal identity, transformed into a new platform token after a renaming. From once going to zero to a $200 million market cap, what happened in between?May 14 On-chain Fund Flow
Within 24 hours, GOONC's market cap soared to 70 million, could GOONC be the next billion-dollar dog on the Believe platform?
Bitcoin has broken $100,000, Ethereum has surpassed 2500, and is Solana's hot streak about to make a comeback?
The current market is in a state of macro euphoria, with GOONC riding the wave today, skyrocketing 10x in just a few hours, reaching a market cap of tens of millions of dollars, trading volume soaring past 50 million, and rumors swirling that the developer may be from OpenAI (unconfirmed but intriguing enough).
A ludicrous and absurd Solana meme that some actually buy into.
GOONC is a meme coin that has sprouted from the "gooning" subculture, offering no technological innovation or practical use, its sole function being speculation.
It takes inspiration from an NSFW term "gooning," which refers to a person being deeply immersed in certain content (you know what), eventually entering a nearly religious-like trance.
In Reddit (such as r/GOONED, r/GoonCaves) and some counterculture media outlets (such as MEL Magazine in 2020), "gooning" has gradually transitioned from an adult label to a meme-addicted, digital content and virtual self-indulgence synonym, arguably the epitome of Degen spirit.
GOONC is playing around with this concept, packaging the addictive nature, uselessness, and irony of gooning into a tradable financial product. The project team has made it clear: "We do not solve blockchain problems, we only trade absurdity." Blunt but oddly genuine.
GOONC launched on May 13, 2025, using the meme coin launch platform Believe App's LaunchCoin module on Solana. This tool is highly Degen: zero technical barriers, a few clicks to create a coin, perfect for projects like GOONC that can come up with ideas out of the blue.
The mastermind behind GOONC is also quite something and is the most talked-about, with KOL @basedalexandoor on X platform (alias "Pata van Goon") personally involved. His profile even caught the attention of Marc Andreessen, co-founder of a16z, making onlookers unable to resist speculating if GOONC has a hint of OpenAI lineage.
While this 'OpenAI Endorsement' is currently just community speculation, it is definitely a good card to play to fuel hype. Saying "we are pure speculation" on one hand, while tagging a few "AI + a16z" on the other.
GOONC took off as soon as it launched. After its launch on May 13, 2025, its market capitalization skyrocketed to $22 million within 4 hours, with a trading volume exceeding $25.6 million in 24 hours. According to platform data, the first day of trading saw an astonishing +41,100% surge, soaring from $0.0000001 to $0.02, becoming a "missed-the-boat" situation.
GOONC quickly formed an active trading community post-launch, with a lot of discussion and trading signals appearing on X platform (such as the 292x return signal provided by DeBot). Liquidity pools on exchanges like Raydium and Meteora grew rapidly, supporting high trading volumes and price increases.
The real climax occurred between May 13 and May 14, with the market cap rising to $5.5 million in the morning and directly surpassing $55 million in the afternoon. By the 14th, it briefly approached a $70 million market cap, with the trading volume soaring to $59 million. Some community members even posted screenshots claiming an increase of +85,000%, creating a new myth out of the ruins.
As of 1:30 pm on May 14, the price stabilized around $0.039, with a total market cap and FDV both around $39.6 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of $5.43 million. Active platforms include XT.COM, LBank, Meteora, and others.
Although there was a slight pullback from the peak ($0.07), the coin's popularity remains strong. For a coin that relies purely on "irony + community + X post" to thrive, this performance is already at a stellar level.
Currently, the background of the token's development team is not transparent, increasing the potential risk of a rug pull. Rugcheck.xyz warns that the creator of the GOONC contract may have permission to modify the contract (e.g., change fees or mint additional tokens), posing certain security risks.
Community members speculate that the meteoric rise of GOONC may be the "last hurrah".
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After Surging 40%, Has Ethereum Price Peaked Upon Exiting the Craze?
Whether you are an insider or an outsider, these days you must be familiar with the news about Ethereum. The reason is simple, causing Ethereum enthusiasts to sigh with emotion and almost throwing off-guard those who defend Ethereum, Ethereum, with a "3-day surge of 40%," climbed to the top of the Douyin Hot List.
As we all know, Ethereum launched the Pectra upgrade on May 7th. This most significant network upgrade since early 2024 integrates the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade, significantly improving Ethereum's performance through 11 improvement proposals. The account abstraction feature (EIP-7702) allows users to flexibly manage wallets through social media accounts or multi-signature schemes, reducing the user threshold, attracting more users and developers. The staking mechanism optimization increases the validator ETH cap from 32ETH to 2048ETH and introduces a flexible withdrawal method, making it easier for institutions and individuals to participate in network security, enhancing the market's confidence in Ethereum's long-term value.
At the same time, Pectra optimized the interaction efficiency of Layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum and Optimism, making transactions faster and cheaper, leading to a surge in on-chain activity. As a crucial step for Ethereum's transition from "2G" to "5G," the Pectra upgrade not only enhances network vitality but also "recharges confidence" in the market, directly driving the price increase.
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It's not just Ethereum itself, as Wall Street also brought important bullish news.
The world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, proposed to the SEC allowing Ethereum ETFs for staking. This proposal is expected to elevate Ethereum ETFs from a mere investment tool to a bond-like "interest-bearing asset," bringing investors both capital appreciation and passive income, igniting market optimism about Ethereum's future potential.
Specifically, BlackRock has proposed to amend its S-1 filing to allow investors to create and redeem ETF shares directly with Ethereum instead of the U.S. dollar (i.e., in-kind redemption). This move, combined with its $2.9 billion BUIDL Fund launched in March 2024, aims to deepen the integration of traditional finance with blockchain. The BUIDL Fund is a tokenized fund operating on the Ethereum network, investing in traditional assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds. This setup is highly attractive to institutional investors, as they can not only benefit from Ethereum's price appreciation but also earn stable cash flow through staking.
Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's Head of Digital Assets, stated in a CNBC interview in March 2025 that the addition of staking functionality will significantly enhance the appeal of the Ethereum ETF. He admitted that when the Ethereum spot ETF was launched in July 2024 without staking functionality, the market demand was lackluster, and staking could be the key to reversing this trend.
Meanwhile, the SEC's shifting stance on cryptocurrency regulation has also fueled this upward trend. During the tenure of the previous SEC chairman, the regulatory approach was tough, and staking was strictly viewed through the Howey test as a potential unregistered security. Therefore, when approving the Ethereum spot ETF in May 2024, staking functionality was explicitly prohibited.
However, with Trump back in the White House and Paul Atkins taking over the SEC, there has been a noticeable relaxation in crypto regulation. Apart from BlackRock, ETF issuers such as Invesco Galaxy, VanEck, WisdomTree, and 21Shares have also submitted applications for similar staking and in-kind redemption.
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If staking ETFs are approved, the benefits are likely to go beyond price appreciation. The introduction of staking functionality could redefine the role of crypto assets, making them more similar to traditional financial products that provide returns and value appreciation, thereby driving Ethereum closer to mainstream finance.
Currently, the SEC still needs to address several decisions related to crypto ETFs, including whether to approve ETFs for Solana, XRP, Litecoin, and even Dogecoin. With the calls for an "altcoin season" growing louder, Ethereum's strong performance may just be the beginning of a larger crypto market frenzy.
In addition, the Trump family-related DeFi project WLFI is also bullish on this wave of rise, with frequent on-chain activities. According to on-chain data analyst @ai_9684xtpa's monitoring, a WLFI-related address is currently borrowing coins to go long on ETH, borrowing 4 million U from Aave to buy 1590 ETH at an average price of $2515 per ETH.
For this epic surge of Ethereum after half a year of silence, the community has indeed gained more confidence and hope, which has also led to a revival of the entire altcoin market. However, amidst the joy, there are also voices of pessimism. Below is a summary conducted by BlockBeats based on community discussions.
The optimists point out that the current market structure is similar to the eve of the bull markets in 2016 and 2020, predicting a life-changing surge in the next 3-6 months, where some altcoins may even achieve astonishing single-day gains of up to 40%.
@liuwei16602825 stated that this surge signifies the return of the bull market as a sure thing. There is no need to worry about a pullback. The driving force behind the surge uses a high-cost isolated operation, fearing a drop more than any retail investor and will definitely do everything to support the price.
Related Reading: "Ethereum Leads the Surge Triggering the 'Altcoin Season' Speculation, How Do Traders View the Future Market?"
The bears mainly believe that this surge is different from the bull market of 2021, as the current market lacks the confidence of large-scale retail investors entering and holding positions for the long term, with funds rotating too quickly.
@market_beggar observed that a Bitfinex E/B whale has started to close positions and believes that if this whale maintains its high-speed position-closing operation for the next few days, it can be inferred that the whale no longer sees the upside potential of ETH, preparing to take profits and exit. The closing time will be a key focus going forward.
@FLS_OTC stated that there are still many uncertainties at the macro level, and the liquidity cannot support a major bull market. At this stage, it is a "last hurrah," not a complete reversal, and will continue to remain in a short position.
@off_thetarget believes that after ETH transitioned from POW to POS, it lost the "gold standard" of mining machine power cost support. The staking economic model led to a breakdown in value anchoring. Additionally, the L2 ecosystem (such as Starknet, zkSync, etc.) suffered from liquidity fragmentation, failing to establish an effective capital inflow mechanism, causing the collapse of the split disc pattern. Furthermore, the ETH community's excessive pursuit of technical narratives divorced from real-world needs resulted in a weak ecosystem growth. Therefore, he believes that ETH's intrinsic value system has crumbled, and the price is bound to plummet to the 800-1200 range, with a decisive short position at 1800.
@Airdrop_Guard, based on the core logic of the "High Probability Trading Strategy," where three sets of underlying logic different trading systems (such as volume depletion, price supply-demand, long/short position funding rate, etc.) simultaneously issue a short signal at the same point (2580), creating a high-probability trading opportunity. He emphasizes that these systems must be based on different algorithms and logics (rather than mere technical indicator overlays). The current ETH trend aligns with the short conditions in multiple independent dimensions of his trading system, hence the decision to short.
Overall, Bitcoin still maintains over 54% market dominance, and institutional funds' continued preference for it may limit the altcoin's upward potential. The market's future direction will depend on multiple factors, such as Bitcoin's price trend, global macroeconomic conditions, and whether funds can effectively rotate from Bitcoin to the altcoin sector.
Although Ethereum's recent leadership in the market has brought about optimistic sentiment, investors still need to remain rational as different sectors of altcoins are likely to show divergence in trends. Whether this round of Ethereum's rise will usher in a true altcoin frenzy may require more time and conducive conditions.
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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