12-Hour Market Cap Surpasses $25 Million, Is $JOS Legit or Another "Rug Pull"?

By: blockbeats|2025/04/24 11:00:03
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4 月 23 日晚,AI 项目 JuliaOS 的代币在 Solana 链上以 65 万美元左右的市值发射,其背后 50% 以上的捆绑代币让链上玩家望而却步,而不到 24 小时便达到了 2500 万美元市值。JuliaOS 究竟是什么,其背后的捆绑地址又是怎么回事呢?

12-Hour Market Cap Surpasses 5 Million, Is $JOS Legit or Another

JuliaOS 是什么?

JuliaOS 是一个新的 AI Agent 的蜂巢集群框架,现在可以得知的团队信息只有Qubic的 COO Leslie Kivit 作为该项目的顾问,以及创始人 Adam Consuli 的推特,网上并不能找到有关这个名字的相关信息,只能从项目方的 Mod 处得知,团队来自挪威,而创始人拥有 6 年以上在金融交易和能源行业的 IT 经验。作为创始人的位置是 CTO 而非 CEO 可能证明这个团队更偏向技术为主而非营销。

而顾问 Leslie Kivit 来自 Qubic,这是一个结合预言机和智能合约实现免费交易的同时利用计算能力进行人工智能训练的一层网络。作为 AI 链曾在马德里举办过多次 AI 黑客松比赛,两个团队同样来自欧洲,Leslie Kivit 愿意作为团队中唯一 Doxx 的成员很有可能双方团队在线下是有一定信任度的。

参与过 AI 上个周期的项目的人对这个 AI Swarm 概念肯定不会陌生,上个周期使用 Python 写的 Swarms、TypeScript 的 Eliza、Rust 的 Arc 都提到了这个框架模式。而这些项目都曾拥有不错的市值。

团队对自己的技术十分有自信,宣称仅仅一个月,就开发了以下图表中的所有功能,并在 TG 中发表公告宣称这两天「周四、周五」会有一件大事将宣布。

社区还「贴心」的准备了自己与其他 Swarm 类项目技术层面对比,现在可以得知该框架现在可以支持的多链包括 ETH、Polygon、Arbitrum、Optimism、Base、Solana 等一系列主流链以及 Llama、Gemini、Mistral 等主流大模型。

而项目路线图中表示,团队也将从 AI Agent 出发,发展成 AI 驱动的 DAO 组织并在未来上线可以交易 AI 学习资料和 AI Agent 的市场。

该路线与大多的框架类 AI 项目相似,但此前大多 AI 项目并未达到预期。相反市场中最认可的概念其实是该项目使用的底层编程语言 Julia。

视觉团队

Orange Studio 是来自奈及利亚的全栈 Web3 创意工作室,他们主要负责 JuliaOS 的品牌推广、设计、动画和部分开发的部分。此前像是 Hape、AscendEX、Tron、SAND 等项目也与其合作过。

非主流编程语言 Julia 是什么?

Julia 是一种高性能、动态类型的高级编程语言,专为科学计算、数据分析和机器学习设计,与如今的 AI 所需的能力相契合。Julia 最早于 2012 年由 MIT 的四位研究员 Jeff Bezanson、Stefan Karpinski、Viral B. Shah、Alan Edelman 首次推出。

他们在 2012 年情人节发行了一篇《为什么我们创造 Julia》,其中提到了之所以创造 Julia 是因为他们太贪心了「我们想要 C 的速度,又不失 Ruby 的动态性,我们想要一种既适合通用编程又像 Python 一样易用;在统计方面像 R 一样便捷;在字符串处理上像 Perl 一样自然;在线性代数上如 Matlab 般强大;在程序组合上像 Shell 一样出色。」

到现在 13 年过去了在 PYPL 的 2025 年 4 月编程语言流行度排名,其排名第 23,在 AI Agent 高速发展的现在,尤其在 CryptoAI 中,Julia 被认为其更适合 Crypto 的快速更新的信息流。

预售的代币捆绑

即使 Julia 的 AI 框架概念在散户中确实有一定吸引力,但在链上交易代币,最令人担心的事情之一就是内幕,而第一眼看到如此大量的捆绑代币以及狙击代币,却没有任何公开预售的信息以及相关的代币分配规则着实令人不放心。

项目孵化的领头人 ALTpartisan 对此的回应是,因为需要在品牌概念尚未启动时进行大量市场营销,因此联系了彼此信任的社区在非常早期就进行投资。随后补充道「两个月前的市场看起来非常不确定,而项目需要 Runway。如果我们选择走 VC 路线,这个项目的起步市值将是 300 万美元,这也是我们为什么选择一个小型社区销售的原因。」

ALT 认为几乎没有一种方式能让所有类型的投资者都满意,而为了项目发展他已经选择了对一个正规项目最适合的路径。我们可以在社区中得知对这些社区的预售市值价格是跟代币发射时的 IMC「初始市值」相同且有一定的贩售限制,团队宣称对每个出售的代币地址都进行了监控,以便随时应对。

项目的理念以及首个 Julia 语言的 AI Agent 项目的概念似乎不错,但想要更好的发展项目需要给予社区更多的信任,更透明的团队以及代币分发制度将更好的帮助项目与社区相互理解,而匿名的团队与 Insider 将会把社区推的更远。在截稿的当下代币的市值横在了 1400 万美元,尽管团队给出的理由确有道理,但在这个市场情况下,我们需要倍加小心的进行投资选择。

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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating

On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.



On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.


Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.


In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.


Side Effects of ETFs


Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.



Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.


According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.


This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.


Chart showing the trend of net outflows for Grayscale among the 11 institutions


Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.



In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.


According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.



However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.


The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.


Robinhood Takes a Stand, Traditional Brokerages Join the Fray


On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.



With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.


In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.



Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.



Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.



User Data Breach: Is Coinbase Still Secure?


In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.


Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.


Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.


Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.


Visualization: ChatGPT, Source: Farside


In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.


Visualization: ChatGPT


Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.


CEXs are All in Self-Rescue Mode


Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.



Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.


Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.



Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.


With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.


However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.


In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.


The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.


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