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2030 Hindsight on 2025: The Year Wall Street Took Over Bitcoin
Original Title: "2030 Retrospective on 2025: The Year Wall Street Officially Took Over Bitcoin"
Original Author: Daii, Airdrop Reference Founder
One day in 2030, when BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF's AUM surpassed that of the S&P 500 index fund, Wall Street traders suddenly realized: the thing that they once mocked as a "dark web toy" now held the global capital by the throat.
But all the turning point started in 2025 — the year when the price of Bitcoin surged past $250,000 amidst the institutional whale hunting, yet no one could clearly say who it belonged to anymore. On-chain data showed that over 63% of the circulating supply was locked in institutional custody addresses, and Bitcoin exchange liquidity dried up to only support three days of trading volume.
The above is a fantasy; let us return to the present for now.
A substantial amount of funds continues to flow out from Bitcoin ETFs, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $80,000. The explanation for this phenomenon mainly revolves around two aspects:
1. From a policy perspective, it was due to the U.S.-China trade war initiated by Trump;
2. From a fund perspective, it was because 56% of short-term holders — hedge funds — closed their arbitrage positions.
However, analysts believe that the current Bitcoin bull market is in the "distribution phase."
The "distribution phase" of a Bitcoin bull market usually refers to the late stage before and after the price peak, where whales gradually sell off their chips, transferring Bitcoin from early holders to new market entrants. This phase signifies the market transitioning from a frenzy of upward movement to the top area and is a crucial juncture for the bull-bear shift.
No more suspense; let's give the answer first: the current market liquidity structure has changed.
· OG retail and OG whales are playing the role of sellers;
· Institutional whales and new retail entrants through ETFs are becoming the main buyers.
In the cryptocurrency field, "OG" is an abbreviation for "Original Gangster" (and is also often interpreted as "Old Guard"), specifically referring to the earliest participants, pioneers, or long-standing core group in the Bitcoin space.
In short, old money is exiting, and new money is entering. Among the new money, institutions are dominant.
Next, we will provide you with a detailed analysis from the perspectives of market structure, current cycle characteristics, roles of institutions and retail investors, cycle timeline, and more.
1. Typical Market Structure: Whale Distribution to Retail at the End of a Bull Market
A typical Bitcoin bull market at the end phase exhibits a pattern where whales distribute chips to retail investors, meaning early large holders sell coins to latecomer retail investors at high prices.
In other words, retail investors often buy at high prices in a euphoric atmosphere, while the "smart money" whales take the opportunity to sell in batches at the peak, realizing profits. This process has played out multiple times in historical cycles:
For example, as the 2017 bull market approached its peak, the Bitcoin balance held by whales saw a net decrease, indicating a significant amount of chips moved away from whale hands. This was because at the time, there was a massive influx of new demand into the market, providing enough liquidity for whales to distribute their holdings, as detailed in: The Shrimp Supply Sink: Revisiting the Distribution of Bitcoin Supply.
Overall, the market structure at the end of a traditional bull market can be summarized as follows: early holders progressively sell off, increasing market supply, while retail investors buy in large quantities driven by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) sentiment. This distribution behavior often comes with signs such as increased Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, movement of old coins on-chain, foreshadowing the market is about to peak and reverse.
2. Characteristics of This Bull Market Cycle: Structural New Changes
The distribution phase of the current bull market cycle (2023-2025) differs from the past, especially in the behaviors of retail and institutional investors.
2.1 Unprecedented Institutional Participation in This Cycle
The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the aggressive Bitcoin purchases by publicly traded companies have made the market participants more diverse, no longer solely driven by retail investors. The entry of institutional funds has brought a deeper pool of capital and more stable demand, directly reflected in the reduced market volatility compared to the past — analysis shows that the maximum drawdown of the current bull market is significantly smaller than in previous cycles, with peak retracements typically not exceeding 25%-30%. This is attributed to the intervention of institutional funds stabilizing volatility.
At the same time, market maturity has increased, with each cycle seeing a diminishing price increase, leading to a more stable trend. This can also be observed from indicators such as the growth rate of the realized cap: this cycle's realized cap has only expanded a small portion of the previous peak, indicating that the frenzy has not yet fully unleashed (see: Thinking Ahead).
Realized Cap is a key metric to measure the market's capital inflow situation. Unlike the traditional Market Cap, Realized Cap is not simply the current price multiplied by the circulating supply, but considers the price of each Bitcoin at its last on-chain transaction. Therefore, it better reflects the actual scale of funds invested in the market.
Of course, the above indicators may also indicate that the market is entering a more mature and stable development stage.
2.2 Retail Investors' Behavior in This Round is Also More Rational and Diverse
On the one hand, experienced retail investors (individual investors who have experienced multiple market cycles) are relatively cautious, taking profits earlier after a certain price increase, which is different from the past when retail investors chased the price all the way to the top.
For example, data from early 2025 shows that small holders (retail investors) net transferred approximately 6,000 BTC (about $6.25 billion) to exchanges in January, starting to cash out early, while during the same period, whales only marginally net increased by about 1,000 BTC, essentially staying put. This divergence indicates that many retail investors believe it's a phase of a peak, choosing to take profits, while whales (seen as "smart money") remain on hold, apparently expecting a higher profit margin.
On the other hand, the enthusiasm of new retail investors is still accumulating. Indicators such as Google Trends indicate that public attention temporarily dropped after the price reached a new high and "reset," without reaching the peak of mass hysteria seen in the late stages of past cycles. This suggests that the current bull market may not have entered the final frenzy stage yet, with remaining upside potential in the market.
2.3 Institutional Investors' Behavior Has Become a Key Feature of This Bull Market
The previous bull market of 2020-2021 was the first time a large number of institutions and publicly traded companies entered the market, leading to an increase in whale holdings—a phenomenon where institutions and other new "whales" bought large amounts, causing Bitcoin to flow from retail hands to these whale accounts.
This trend has continued in the current cycle: large institutions are heavily buying Bitcoin through channels such as OTC markets, trust funds, or ETFs, making traditional whales no longer net sellers, to some extent delaying the distribution phase's arrival. This has made the distribution of this bull market more gradual and decentralized, rather than the previous pattern where retail investors were the only buyers: the market's depth and breadth have increased, and new funds are sufficient to absorb the chips sold by long-term holders.
A Glassnode report points out that a significant amount of wealth has already transferred or is transferring from long-term holders to new investors, marking a sign of maturity in the Bitcoin market—long-term holders have realized record profits (up to $21 billion in a single day), and new investors have enough demand to absorb these sell-offs, see Bitcoin sees wealth shift from long-term holders to new investors – Glassnode.
It is evident that in this bull market, the interaction between retail investors and institutions has created a more resilient market environment.
3. Evolution of Roles: Institutional and Retail Investors' Impact on Liquidity
As the market participant structure evolves, the roles of institutions and retail investors in the allocation phase have also undergone significant changes.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju summarized the current allocation pattern as follows: "OG Retail" (Original Gangster Retail) + existing whales → new retail investors (through ETFs, MSTR, and other channels) + new whales (institutions).
In other words, retail investors and whales who experienced the early stages of the cycle are gradually selling off, and the party stepping in to buy includes not only traditional retail investors but also ordinary investors entering through investment vehicles like ETFs and institutions acting as whale entities.
This diversified participation pattern is starkly different from the traditional "whale → retail" linear distribution model.
· In this cycle, OG Retail (early entrant individual holders) may hold a significant amount of Bitcoin. They choose to cash out and exit at the peak of the bull market, providing some selling pressure and liquidity to the market.
· Similarly, OG whales (early large holders) will also gradually sell off to realize profits multiple times over. In response, institutional whales as new buying forces absorb this selling pressure massively. They buy through custody accounts and ETFs, with Bitcoin flowing from old wallets to these institutions' custody wallets.
· Furthermore, some traditional retail investors now indirectly hold Bitcoin through ETFs and publicly traded company stocks (such as MicroStrategy's stock), representing a new form of "retail buying the dip."
This role transition has had a profound impact on market liquidity and price trends.
3.1 More Bitcoin Moving Off Exchanges
On one hand, the selling behavior of OG holders usually leaves significant on-chain footprints: increased activity in old wallets, large transfers flowing to exchanges, and more.
For example, in this bull market, it has been observed that some long-dormant wallets have become active, moving coins to exchanges in preparation for sale, indicating that old holders are starting to distribute chips. Ki Young Ju pointed out that the activities of OG players are reflected through on-chain and exchange data, whereas the movement of "paper Bitcoins" (such as ETF shares, Bitcoin-related stocks) is only reflected in custody wallet on-chain records during settlement. In other words, institutional fund buying often occurs off-exchange or through custody, with direct on-chain reflections being the increase in balance of custody addresses, rather than direct exchange movements as with traditional exchanges.
The current exchange's Bitcoin balance is 2.22 million coins, which is also a reflection of this characteristic.
3.2 New Whales, New Retail Investors Show More Resilience
On the other hand, institutional investors, as newly emerged whales, not only provide massive buying support but also enhance the market's resilience to sell pressure and liquidity depth.
Unlike the panic selling often seen during retail-dominated periods in the past, institutional funds tend to buy the dip and hold for the long term. When the market experiences a pullback, the intervention of these professional funds often helps stabilize the price. For example, some analysis attributes the reduced volatility of this bull market to institutional participation: when retail investors sell, institutions are willing to buy to ensure market liquidity, resulting in much smaller price retracements.
Although the launch of Bitcoin ETFs has brought significant incremental funds to the market, some ETF holders (such as hedge funds) may primarily engage in arbitrage trading, leading to higher fund liquidity. Recent outflows of ETF funds indicate that some institutional funds are only engaging in short-term arbitrage rather than holding long term. The recent drop in Bitcoin below $80,000 faced selling pressure from hedge funds closing out arbitrage positions.
However, newly entered retail investors have shown strong resilience, not panic selling at each adjustment but willing to continue holding, with Bitcoin's short-term holder metric showing greater resistance to price drops.
Overall, the interaction between OG retail investors + OG whales and new institutional whales + new retail investors has formed the unique supply-demand pattern in the current market: early holders provide liquidity, while institutions and new buyers absorb chips, making the distribution process in the later stages of the bull market smoother and more traceable.
4. Market Cycle Timeline: Historical Trends and Prospects for This Bull Market
From historical data, the Bitcoin market demonstrates a roughly four-year cycle, each containing a full cycle of bear market - bull market - transition. This is highly related to the Bitcoin block reward halving event: after the halving, new coin issuance sharply decreases, followed by a roughly 12-18 month period of a significant price surge (bull market), and then entering a bear market correction near the peak.
4.1 History
Looking back at the timeline of several major bull markets:
· The first halving occurred at the end of 2012, and the Bitcoin price peaked in December 2013, about 13 months later;
· The second halving in 2016, with the bull market peak near $20,000 in December 2017, about 18 months later;
· In May 2020, during the third halving, Bitcoin experienced a double peak near $70,000 at two high points (April and November) around 17-18 months later by the end of 2021.
Based on this, it is speculated that the fourth halving in April 2024 may trigger a new bull market, with the peak likely to occur approximately one to one and a half years after the halving, around the second half of 2025, ushering in the final distribution phase (end of the bull market).
Of course, cycles do not mechanically repeat, and changes in market conditions and participant structure may affect the duration and peak of this bull market.
4.2 Optimistic
Some analysts believe that the macro environment, regulatory policies, and market maturity will have a significant impact on this cycle.
For example, Grayscale's research team pointed out in a late 2024 report that the current market is only in the mid-term stage of a new cycle. If the fundamentals (user adoption, macro environment, etc.) remain strong, the bull market may extend into 2025 or even longer. They emphasize that the newly introduced spot Bitcoin ETF has broadened the channels for fund inflows, and the clarity of the future U.S. regulatory environment (such as the potential impact of the Trump administration) may further boost the crypto market valuation.
This means that this bull market is expected to be longer than previous cycles, and the upward trend may extend beyond the traditional time window.
On the other hand, there is also on-chain data supporting the view of a longer bull market. For example, the current cycle's Realized Cap has not yet reached half of the peak of the previous cycle, indicating that the market's enthusiasm has not been fully released. Some analysts therefore predict that the final peak of this bull market may far exceed the previous cycle, with peak expectations commonly raised to $150,000 or even higher.
4.3 Conservative
However, some opinions suggest that the peak will occur within 2025.
For instance, CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju predicts that the final distribution phase of the Bitcoin bull market (various OG holders and institutions concentrating on selling to the final buyers) will take place within the year 2025. His assessment is based on the early distribution phase already entered and the observed influx of new retail funds, believing that it is not necessary to switch to a bearish view prematurely before the final distribution is completed.
Combining historical patterns and current indicators, it can be speculated that this bull market will most likely enter its final stages in the second half of 2025 when, as prices reach a phase peak, various holders will accelerate chip distribution to complete the final distribution process.
Of course, the precise timing and magnitude are difficult to predict, but based on the cycle length (around 1.5 years post-halving) and market signs (retail frenzy level, institutional fund flows, etc.), 2025 may become a key year.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin evolves from a geeky toy to a trillion-dollar strategic asset, this bull market cycle may reveal a harsh truth: the essence of financial revolution is not to eliminate old money but to reconstruct the genetic chain of global capital with new rules.
The current "distribution phase" is indeed the coronation ceremony of Wall Street formally taking over the crypto world. When OG whales hand over their chips to BlackRocks, this is not the prelude to a collapse but the march of restructuring the global capital landscape—Bitcoin is transforming from retail's myth of sudden wealth to the "digital strategic reserve" on institutional balance sheets.
The most ironic part is that while retail investors are still calculating their "exit scam passwords," firms like BlackRock have already included Bitcoin in their 2030 balance sheet template.
The ultimate question of 2025: is this the peak of a cyclical cycle or the birth pangs of a new financial order? The answer lies in the icy blockchain data—each outflow from an OG wallet is contributing to the custodial addresses of BlackRocks; each ETF's net inflow is redefining the notion of "value storage."
For investors navigating through the cycle, here is a piece of advice: the greatest risk is not missing out but interpreting the rules of 2025 with the cognition of 2017. When "holding addresses" turn into "institutional custody accounts," when the "halving narrative" becomes a derivative of the Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, this century's handover has transcended the bull-bear dichotomy—
History tends to repeat itself, but this time, what takes the stage is not retail tears but the incessant chain of institutional treasury on-chain transfers.
This trend towards institutionalization can perhaps be likened to the evolution of the Web 1.0 era—where the internet, originally belonging to geeks, ultimately fell into the hands of FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) giants.
History's cyclical nature is always brimming with dark humor.
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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Ika Receives Strategic Investment from Sui Foundation, Total Funding Exceeds $21 Million
Switzerland Zug, April 28, 2025, Chainwire
The world's fastest parallel MPC network, Ika, is set to launch on the Sui blockchain, announces a strategic investment from the Sui Foundation. Previously, Ika successfully completed a record-breaking 1.4 million SUI NFT art event on Sui. Ika is the world's first sub-second MPC network, capable of achieving zero-trust interoperability among hundreds of signing nodes, unprecedented in scale and rock-solid security.
Ika's core values of performance, speed, and high decentralization align perfectly with Sui. With its upcoming launch on the Sui blockchain, Ika will bring its unparalleled MPC technology into the Sui ecosystem, providing Sui Move smart contract developers with secure cross-Web3 interoperability. This further solidifies Sui's position as the preferred solution in cross-chain DeFi, decentralized custody, chain abstraction, AI-agent defense, native Bitcoin programmability, leveraging the first truly scalable and secure MPC signature scheme.
Ika addresses key bottlenecks of existing MPC networks and delivers unparalleled performance through innovative 2PC-MPC encryption scheme and Sui's Mysticeti consensus protocol:
1. Record Throughput: Ika's transaction processing capability is up to 10,000 times higher than current MPC networks, supporting unprecedented transaction volumes.
2. Ultra-Low Latency: While traditional network signatures may experience delays of 30 seconds or more, Ika can generate signatures in sub-seconds, supporting cross-chain real-time applications.
3. Tremendous Scalability: Ika breaks the conventional limit of 4-8 nodes, and the 2PC-MPC can scale to hundreds or even thousands of signers, enhancing decentralization without sacrificing performance.
4. Zero-Trust Security: Ika's architecture ensures that even in the most extreme scenarios, user assets remain secure, setting a new standard for decentralized security.
Ika's ultra-fast MPC network supports various applications on the Sui blockchain, and several Sui developers have utilized Ika to build tech, including:
· DeFi Interoperability: Ika's sub-second speed and scalability enable instant secure operations within the Web3 ecosystem, bringing liquidity from chains like Bitcoin and Ethereum into Sui. Sui developers Full Sail and Rhei have announced upcoming tech launches based on Ika.
· Decentralized Custody: Ika provides a secure, decentralized custody solution for digital assets on Sui, delivering unparalleled security for both institutional and individual users. Sui developers Aeon and Human Tech have announced the integration of Ika into their technology.
· Chain Abstraction: Ika helps Sui developers abstract away multi-chain complexity for users, combining with Sui's zkLogin feature to deliver a seamless user experience. Sui developers Covault and Lucky Kat have announced the integration of Ika into their technology.
· Programmable Bitcoin: Ika unlocks new possibilities for native BTC on Sui, enabling programmable and secure DeFi and custody. Sui developers Native and Nativerse have announced the upcoming launch of Ika-based technology.
· AI Agent Protection: Ika enhances AI applications on Sui by providing secure MPC protection, ensuring AI agents do not possess unrestricted power and safeguarding user asset security. Sui developers Atoma and Ekko have announced the upcoming launch of Ika-based technology.
The strategic investment in Ika by the Sui Foundation underscores Sui's commitment to driving cutting-edge technology for high performance and decentralization. This amplifies the technical synergy within the Sui ecosystem, propelling Sui and Ika to the forefront of the Web3 revolution, jointly advancing the future of secure, scalable, decentralized infrastructure.
Ika has raised over $21 million in funding, with a peak private valuation of $6 billion FDV, backed by support from Sui Foundation, DCG, Big Brain Holdings, Blockchange, Node Capital, Amplify Partners, Liquid2 Ventures, FalconX, Tykhe Block Ventures, Lightshift, Token Bay Capital, Collider, Zero Knowledge Ventures, NoLimit Holdings, Rubik Ventures, Dispersion Capital, Insignius Capital, Impatient Ventures, Cerulean Ventures, Earl Grey Capital, HDI Ventures, Flowdesk, TPC Ventures, Purechain Capital, Solr DAO, Heroic Ventures, Naval Ravikant, NotVCs, G-20 Group, Artifact Capital, DSRV, Encapsulate, and many other key players in the Web3 space.
Ika also demonstrated the strong support of Sui users by launching the "MF Squid Market" NFT art event, which became the largest and most successful NFT event in Sui's history, raising over 1.4 million SUI and establishing an active grassroots community.
The IKA token is set to native launch on the Sui blockchain, unlocking new decentralized security features and utilities. As the native token of the Ika MPC Network, IKA will play a key role in its ultra-fast, scalable infrastructure, used for paying MPC signature services, enabling seamless transactions within the Web3 ecosystem. Leveraging Sui's unparalleled speed and performance, Ika enhances the security and scalability of the entire ecosystem, introducing the most promising MPC technology in blockchain to the fastest-growing L1 of Web3.
Ika is the world's fastest parallel MPC network, offering sub-second latency, unprecedented scale and decentralization, and zero-trust security. As the preferred choice for interoperability, decentralized custody, and chain abstraction, Ika will fundamentally transform digital asset security and multi-chain DeFi.
Sui is the first Layer 1 blockchain and smart contract platform designed from the ground up to provide fast, private, secure, and inclusive digital assets. Built on the Move programming language, its object-centric model supports parallel execution, sub-second finality, and rich on-chain assets. Through horizontally scalable processing and storage capacity, Sui supports widespread applications at low cost with unparalleled speed. Sui represents a significant advancement in blockchain technology, offering creators and developers a platform to build exceptional user experiences.
Contact:
Ika PR
pr@ika.xyz (mailto:pr@ika.xyz)
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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1.Binance Alpha Launches HIPPO, BLUE, and Other Tokens
2.Believe Ecosystem Tokens See General Rise, LAUNCHCOIN Surges Over 250% in 24 Hours
3.Tiger Securities Introduces Cryptocurrency Deposit and Withdrawal Service, Supports Mainstream Cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH
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5.Binance Wallet's New TGE Privasea AI Participation Requires a 198 Point Threshold, with a Point Consumption of 15
Source: Overheard on CT (tg: @overheardonct), Kaito
PUMP: Today's discussions about PUMP focus on its new creator revenue-sharing model: the platform will allocate 50% of PumpSwap revenue to token creators, sparking varied reactions from users. Some criticize the move as insufficient or even misleading, while others view it as a positive step the platform is taking to reward creators. Meanwhile, PUMP faces market pressure from emerging competitors like LetsBONKfun and Raydium, which are rapidly gaining market share. Users also express concerns about PUMP's sustainability and potential regulatory risks in the U.S., with discussions extending to the platform's impact on the entire memecoin ecosystem.
COINBASE: Today, Coinbase became the first crypto company to join the S&P 500 Index, replacing Discover Financial Services, sparking widespread industry attention. The entire crypto community views this milestone as a significant development, signaling that crypto assets are further integrating into the mainstream financial system. The news has sparked lively discussions on Twitter, with many users pointing out that this may attract more institutional investors to enter the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets.
XRP: XRP became the focal point of today's crypto discussion, with its significant market movements and strategic advances drawing attention. XRP has surpassed USDT to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, sparking market excitement and discussions about its future potential. The surge in market capitalization and price is believed to be related to increasing institutional interest, deepening strategic partnerships, and its role in the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, XRP's integration into multiple financial systems and its potential as a macro asset class are also seen as key factors driving the current market sentiment.
DYDX: Today's discussions about DYDX mainly focused on the dYdX Yapper Leaderboard launched by KaitoAI. The leaderboard aims to identify the most active community participants, with a total of $150,000 in rewards to be distributed over the first three seasons. This initiative has sparked broad community participation, with many users discussing the potential rewards and the incentive effect on the DYDX ecosystem. Meanwhile, progress on the ethDYDX to dYdX native chain migration and historical airdrop events have also been topics of discussion.
1. "What Is 'ICM'? Holding Up the $4 Billion Market Cap Solana's New Narrative"
Overnight, the hottest narrative in the crypto space has become "Internet Capital Markets," with a host of crypto projects and founders, led by the Solana ecosystem's new Launchpad platform Believe, releasing this phrase. Together with "Believe in something," it has become the new slogan heralding the onset of a bull market. What exactly is the so-called "Internet Capital Market," will it become a short-lived hype phrase like the Base ecosystem's previous Content Coin, and what related targets are available for selection?2.《LaunchCoin Surges 20x in One Day, How Did Believe Create a $200M Market Cap Shiba Inu After Going to Zero?｜100x Retrospective》
LAUNCHCOIN broke through a $200 million market cap today, with the long-lost liquidity and such a high market cap "Memecoin" almost bringing half of the on-chain crypto community CT into the fray. The community is crazily discussing this token, with half of it being FOMO and the other half being FUD. This token, originally issued by Believe founder Ben Pasternak under his personal identity, transformed into a new platform token after a renaming. From once going to zero to a $200 million market cap, what happened in between?May 14 On-chain Fund Flow
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