Conversation with CZ: Ethereum is currently facing more of a PR crisis; Excellent entrepreneurs are always the scarcest resource
Original Article Title: "Wu Shuo Dialogue with CZ Zhao Changpeng: Childhood Experience, Binance Entrepreneurship Story, Most Important Article of a Lifetime, Solana's Eruption, Vitalik's Dilemma, Challenges of Listing on CEX"
Original Source: Wu Shuo Colin
The content of this article represents the interviewee's views and does not represent the views of Wu Shuo.
In this interview, Wu Shuo Colin and Binance founder Zhao Changpeng CZ engaged in a discussion on various topics. CZ recalled his happy childhood in China before the age of 12; after immigrating to Canada at 12, his family's financial situation changed, his mother transitioned from a teacher to a garment factory worker, which even affected his health; later, he dropped out of school early due to receiving a job offer.
Due to Binance's rapid success, CZ, who was once unknown, became the world's richest man in just a few years. However, he was later embroiled in a U.S. lawsuit and eventually imprisoned for four months. CZ has said every year that his biggest wish is to have six-pack abs. He also joked that he was closest to having six-pack abs only when he was released from prison because the food inside was really bad.
During the discussion, CZ talked about the reasons for Binance's early success, attributing it to personal experience accumulation and lucky timing. At that time, other exchanges were mainly trading mainstream coins, while Binance quickly launched trading for a large number of ERC20 tokens. He also discussed whether FTX could be saved and the listing challenges currently faced by CEXs; whether centralized exchanges must move towards compliance; and the cryptocurrency policy directions of Hong Kong and the U.S.
CZ shared his experience of writing the most important article of his life, "Principles"; discussed the current dilemma faced by Vitalik, and made jokes about Justin Sun; he analyzed why meme coins on Solana suddenly experienced a massive surge; introduced his future work and advice for entrepreneurs. Finally, CZ sent New Year's greetings to the Chinese community, believing that this year will be a very good year and hoping that everyone will achieve good results through steady efforts.
Listen to the full podcast:
Xiaoyuzhou: https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episodes/6795f930d74435e4a3dc2cfa
YouTube: https://youtu.be/vfl73WULagc
Childhood Life in China Before the Age of 12, Family Situation After Immigrating to Canada at 12
Colin: Welcome CZ to accept our interview. The first question is, you left China at the age of 12, do you still have memories of your childhood in China before the age of 12?
CZ: Yes, of course. I think I had a very happy childhood, and my memories are all very fond. At that time, my parents were both teachers, and I always lived on school campuses, such as elementary schools, middle schools, and the campus of the University of Science and Technology of China. I lived in a school environment, which left me with a very good impression. I had a carefree childhood. Although my family was not wealthy, as a child, I didn't feel a lack of money and always lived quite well.
Colin: I watched your later interviews and had a question. After moving to Canada, you mentioned that your parents were earning salaries close to the local minimum wage. Was life more financially constrained after moving to Canada? Did your parents continue to work as teachers there or did they pursue other jobs? Did you need to work to earn money by yourself?
CZ: When we first arrived in Canada, in China, we were considered a middle-class or comfortably well-off family with both parents receiving salaries. My father even saved money to send back to China while studying abroad, and after conversion, our life was still quite good. After moving to Canada, our quality of life did not decrease, but we were at the bottom of the income ladder in society. However, we had no problems with food, clothing, and shelter. Due to my mom's poor English, she couldn't continue as a teacher and could only work in a garment factory. She worked long hours sewing clothes, which wasn't great for her health, but it was the only job she could find.
In Canada, my father was a teaching assistant with a modest salary, but fortunately, the university provided housing subsidies for teaching assistants. We lived in a small house, but it was larger than where we lived in China, so it was somewhat of an improvement for me. We weren't particularly poor in Canada, but our income was close to the minimum wage.
Colin: What subject does your father teach?
CZ: He teaches Geophysics. This field requires a strong mathematical background with many complex formulas that require frequent calculations. My father is very good at math, and this may be why I am good at STEM subjects.
Reason for Dropping Out of University: Postponed Graduation for a Better Internship Opportunity
Colin: Both you and Vitalik immigrated to Canada and dropped out of university. Were you dropping out because you wanted to start a business, or were there other reasons?
CZ: When I dropped out of school, I was already a senior, which was different from dropping out in the first or second year. At that time, I was interning in Tokyo, and at the end of the internship, my boss offered me a job with a very good salary, which I compared and realized that it would be difficult to find a job with such a high salary after graduation. At the time, my boss had a project halfway done and hoped that I could delay my return to school by a year to continue working. Initially, it was just a few months' delay, equivalent to one semester, and I would still receive my regular salary. The offer was very generous, so I kept postponing, and in the end, two years passed without me going back to school.
Colin: So, you didn't decide to drop out and start a business right away; it was mainly because the job offer was too good.
CZ: Yes, unlike some people who decisively started their own businesses. I postponed my studies because of this good offer, and I never went back to school. Later, I found that without a degree, applying for a visa was a bit tricky, so I obtained a degree through distance education at a college. So now I have a degree, but I never graduated from my original university.
Discussion on the Early Rapid Development of Binance
Colin: I understand that you've founded several projects, reportedly 5-10. In 2017, you founded Binance. The early days of Binance were very challenging, and you must not have expected it to grow so big. Looking back now, what do you think were the most important reasons for Binance's explosive growth in just a year?
CZ: Many people think Binance became famous overnight, but they may not have considered the over 20 years of experience I had in the industry prior to that. I had been in the tech industry and exchange industry for over 20 years, and when I started Binance, I had been in the cryptocurrency field for about four to five years, building networks and teams. When I started Binance, I assembled a strong team; both the tech and product teams were excellent. Additionally, the community provided a lot of support, and people were not unfamiliar with me. It was also a stroke of luck; the timing was perfect.
In 2017, established exchanges like Coinbase, OKCoin, and Huobi mainly focused on Bitcoin trading, with very few Ethereum ERC-20 tokens. Our BNB was an ERC-20 token itself, so we initially supported such tokens and later listed many ERC-20 tokens. From a product perspective, our advantages were obvious. However, I believe the most important thing was our philosophy, which was different from previous exchanges. We were not just focused on making money but prioritized user protection, which was evident in the "94 Delisting" incident.
Back then, there was a regulation in China that stated any project that had conducted an ICO and incurred losses must refund the investors. However, many projects suffered heavy losses and were unable to repay the funds. On our platform, there are around four projects in a deficit state, and the project teams don't have enough funds to cover the user losses. After careful consideration, we decided to compensate for the user losses, which amounted to $6 million after calculation. It's worth noting that just two months ago, we had only raised $15 million in funding, and the company was still operating at a loss. The $6 million required for compensation represented 40% of the company's assets. Nevertheless, we still allocated this amount to cover the user losses, even though these were not projects issued by us. Regarding customer service, in 2017, customer service requests at other exchanges could take two to three months to process, but we promised to handle them within a day, and now we have shortened the response time to 5 minutes. It is for these reasons that Binance has developed rapidly, although luck has also played a part.
Early Security Pressure and System Performance Issues Faced by Binance
Colin: I was working at Bitmain at the time, and I feel that Binance must have faced significant pressure in its first year, especially in terms of security. The team was relatively small at the time, and the industry's security infrastructure was not yet robust. Did Binance face immense pressure in dealing with security issues such as hacker attacks?
CZ: Absolutely, for any exchange, the security pressure brought by hacker attacks has always been great. Security is crucial to the operation of an exchange, and without security measures, business operations are simply not feasible. Here's a little anecdote that many people may have forgotten. In the first four months after Binance went live, from July to mid to late October, all withdrawals from Binance were manually reviewed. Each withdrawal had to be processed manually, with a few processed every few hours.
There was no processing when the staff rested at night. The reason for manual review was the concern that any vulnerability could lead to a complete loss of funds through automated withdrawals. By October, Binance had already entered the top ten exchanges globally, but withdrawals were still done manually. However, the bigger challenge at the time was actually system pressure. Binance was growing too fast, with a continuous influx of users causing system lags. Although we boasted a fast matching engine speed, peripheral systems such as registration, KYC, deposits, and withdrawals all experienced lags, so at that time, more effort was put into optimizing system performance.
Analyzing the FTX Event – Can It Be Redeemed Now?
Colin: The FTX event was a significant event in the crypto world, and looking back now, it seems quite absurd in the history of crypto. Binance was also implicated in it. From today's perspective, is there still a possibility of redeeming FTX? It seems that its assets now seem sufficient to cover user compensations, although embezzling user assets is a heinous act, and the individuals responsible will undoubtedly be imprisoned, but the remaining assets appear to be able to fulfill the compensations.
CZ: My understanding is that, based on the price of cryptocurrency in USD at that time, FTX's existing assets were enough to cover the value of assets at that time converted to USD. However, if all the various cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum held by users at that time were returned to users in their original form, FTX's assets would not be sufficient to cover the appreciation of these coins since then. In other words, if FTX had no issues, the assets currently held by users might be three to four times more than what they actually have now. Following the current calculation method of converting to USD based on the price at that time, and comparing it to the value of FTX's assets converted to USD now, it would be sufficient. But if users had held onto those coins until now, the market value should be four to five times higher now. I am not entirely sure if my understanding is correct.
Colin: It seems that the gap is still too large to bridge, making it very difficult to make up for.
CZ: In fact, FTX did not completely cover all user assets; they only calculated based on the lower coin price at that time. If all the digital currency were returned to users, the early users would have received five times more than what they have now, which is the money the users deserve. This is similar to the Mt. Gox incident in 2014, where there were debts worth billions at that time, which is now a much higher amount due to the rise in coin price. Although it is said that FTX's current assets can cover the price of Bitcoin at that time, from the user's perspective, if they had continuously held the coins until now, the money they would receive now would be five times more. Therefore, users have still lost about seventy to eighty percent. Looking back, by November 2022 when FTX began to collapse, it was already too late. If the issue had been discovered earlier, there might have been a chance, but at that time, there was simply no way to detect it in advance.
The Dilemma of Centralized Exchanges in the Active On-Chain Economy?
Colin: There's also a recent hot topic that I would like to hear your opinion on. Binance was largely successful in the early days primarily because it listed many new coins with high price increases, such as BNB and Tron. Later, Binance's launchpad and launchpool were also very successful. However, in the past year, the on-chain economy has been very active, allowing many people to obtain the lowest price on-chain, while listing on exchanges has become a signal of price peaking, which is a stark contrast to the early days. I think that whether it's Binance or other exchanges, they are not quite sure how to deal with this. How do you view this situation?
CZ: I think there are at least two reasons for this situation. On the one hand, as the platform grows larger, it can only list more stable coins. If Binance lists a small new coin with a market cap of only $10 million, or even just a few hundred thousand or tens of thousands of dollars, the price volatility would be too high. Therefore, from the perspective of major exchanges, in order to avoid excessive price fluctuations, they can only choose coins with larger market caps. This is a natural limitation for major exchanges. However, major exchanges can also establish an innovation zone or support these small coins in Web3 wallets; there are still ways to address this. Personally, I do not think Binance has done particularly well in this regard. Over the past one or two years, Binance's focus has been diluted due to some issues in the United States and some personal matters. I have spent most of the past year dealing with personal matters in the United States.
On the other hand, MEMEcoins have been very popular in the past year. Most major exchanges missed this opportunity, and it was easier to participate on-chain, especially on the Solana network. There are some claims about this that I am not sure about. It is said that Solana was closely connected to FTX in the past. After FTX collapsed, many people on Solana lost a significant amount of money and lost exchange support. As a result, they chose to engage in pump and dump schemes. It is not very appropriate to do such things on the Binance network, both morally and legally. Additionally, over the past few years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), led by individuals like Gary Gensler, has basically classified various coins as securities. The only type of coin that is clearly not considered a security is one that lacks a practical use case, which is a MEME coin. Therefore, MEME coins are not easily sued. MEME coins have no other practical utility or commitment, making them ideal for pump and dump schemes. Since they are decentralized and not closely tied to exchanges, they have gained popularity on Solana. This is similar to how we were fortunate to catch the good timing in 2017; the past one or two years have been the era of MEME coins. I find this quite interesting and withhold judgment on whether it is good or bad. Since the industry is moving in this direction, as a Binance shareholder, industry influencer, or OG, as long as it benefits the industry, I will support it. Therefore, I also encourage everyone to support MEME coins.
Will Centralized Exchanges All Need to Move Towards Compliance?
Colin: Data shows that last year, Binance's fund inflows exceeded the sum of all other exchanges. This indicates that although Binance has faced challenges over the past year, its development has been very robust. However, centralized exchanges are currently facing compliance challenges. Profitability is difficult for compliant exchanges, and offshore exchanges face increasing regulatory risks. Exchange owners traveling to Japan or Europe could have problems, just like Telegram's owner, who was arrested as soon as he landed in France. How do you view the current plight of exchanges? Do you think they all have to move towards compliance in the future?
CZ: I think so. Once a platform reaches a certain scale, it must be compliant. From the regulators' perspective, small platforms may not be prioritized for oversight or may be temporarily overlooked, but large platforms are definitely key targets for regulation. Like Binance, which has been under regulatory scrutiny for a long time, it must take the compliant path. Binance has many restrictions, such as KYC verification required for Web3 wallets associated with the exchange. Although users control their assets in Web3 wallets (using MPC technology), some slightly smaller exchanges than Binance do not require KYC verification for their Web3 wallets. This is something Binance cannot do. These second-tier exchanges, although not small in scale, often do not perform KYC verification. Therefore, Binance is more restricted, and larger exchanges in general face more limitations, but compliance is the only way forward. Moreover, in the compliance process, regulatory enforcement is not balanced; not all platforms are treated equally.
Colin: It is indeed different. Right now, someone might donate crazily to Trump, like Justin Sun did. But during a Democratic administration, they might not have the same opportunity.
CZ: Exactly. However, I believe that regulations will eventually become more mature, especially considering how supportive the U.S. has become towards digital currencies. I think the U.S. will introduce a series of very positive regulatory terms for the digital currency industry. The regulatory terms proposed by the new SEC in the U.S. are very clear, much more proactive than before. As a result, the overall regulatory environment will improve, and the regulatory framework will become more robust. Platforms that are already licensed and compliant with regulations will actually have a greater opportunity to grow.
As you mentioned earlier, even though MEME coins are currently popular, in terms of capital inflow, Binance's inflow last year exceeded the total of other exchanges. This means many retail investors, especially those new to cryptocurrencies, tend to choose larger exchanges that appear to be the most regulated, have undergone multiple reviews, and are still operational. So many new users tend to choose these more stable platforms. MEME coins are indeed popular, but the majority of MEME coin players are OGs. Although there are newcomers as well, early adopters make up a significant percentage. After many people play with MEME coins, when they further invest in cryptocurrencies, they tend to buy Bitcoin, and when buying Bitcoin, they may still choose larger exchanges. Therefore, different areas will have different development speeds, regulatory pressures, and patterns. I think this is good; an industry should have multiple types of platforms.
Hong Kong's Efforts Still Insufficient; Will Face Increasing U.S. Pressure to Relax
Colin: How do you view the current regulatory policies in Hong Kong? You mentioned the U.S. earlier, saying the next two to four years will be a significant positive for the overall cryptocurrency industry. Currently, the entire China region may see Hong Kong as a breakthrough point in the cryptocurrency field, and the latest report from the Chinese central bank also encourages Hong Kong to actively explore cryptocurrency policies.
CZ: I think China's strategy is very wise in using Hong Kong as a pilot area. In the past four years, the U.S. has had a very unsupportive and even suppressive attitude towards digital currencies, while Hong Kong has been more friendly towards digital currencies. However, Hong Kong may be a bit behind in this regard. Hong Kong's existing regulatory terms have many restrictions. Taking Japan as an example, seven years ago, Japan also had many regulatory restrictions on listing and futures, with unclear regulations. However, approximately three to four years ago, Japan basically completely relaxed the restrictions on listings. Hong Kong has not reached this level of relaxation yet. But after recent communication with some senior officials in the Hong Kong regulatory authorities, I feel that Hong Kong is starting to show signs of relaxing regulations. Now that the U.S. is making progress in cryptocurrency regulation, Hong Kong cannot afford to fall behind. I believe Hong Kong will soon make significant positive adjustments. Regulatory policy adjustments need to be gradual; Hong Kong's regulatory terms were indeed tight before, but they should become more competitive later on. So, I am quite optimistic about Hong Kong's development in this regard.
One of the Most Important Articles in a Lifetime: "Principles"
Original Article: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gUU-tp4U9X43qIkX9niCgQ?token=386014621&lang=zh_CN
Colin: Next, I'd like to discuss the article you wrote before, "Principles." This article has been widely circulated, and many people feel that it summarizes your years of entrepreneurial experience. It contains many interesting points, such as your desire to collaborate with proactive individuals and aspects regarding work efficiency, such as preferring to communicate in writing rather than via phone calls, and opting for calls over meetings. Looking back on this article now, what key points do you most want to convey to the outside world? Over these years, do you have any new ideas to add? I heard you are writing a book, is it an extension of this article?
CZ: Yes, I spent about two to three years writing that article.
Colin: That long?
CZ: Yes, I didn't initially expect it to take that long, but I kept adding content as I wrote. After reading Ray Dalio's book "Principles," I felt inspired to write my own article. However, I couldn't get started at first. Later, I met with Ray and asked him how he wrote the book "Principles." He told me that he would reflect each evening on the decisions he made that day, why he made those decisions, and if any decision was guided by a principle, he would write down that principle. Hearing this, I started writing a little every day. I would review the meetings I had that day, the decisions I made, and the reasons behind those decisions. If some decisions were guided by universal principles, I would note them down. This process continued for two to three years until I completed the article, although it's not very long, probably around 10 pages.
Colin: This is a very important article in your life.
CZ: Yes, indeed, it took a lot of time. Ray's guidance gave me a direction, and I slowly wrote down my thoughts, trying to capture some unconventional aspects. For instance, common knowledge like a company should save money is not something I focused on. I have always observed myself and noted ideas that differ from others. For example, while most people believe in preferring face-to-face meetings over phone calls and choosing phone calls over messaging, my perspective is the opposite.
This article consumed a lot of my energy. Although the team helped me refine some parts, the core content was indeed written by me. Furthermore, I am currently writing a book about my personal experiences. Originally, I hoped to finish and publish it in the early part of this year, between the first and second quarters. Since I didn't have much to do while in the U.S. and couldn't meet many people, I dedicated a lot of time to writing. However, I've hit a bit of a roadblock now. Even though I'm not working, I'm still quite busy, and I'm not sure why.
Future Focus on Investment Participation and Early Entrepreneur Interaction
Colin: There was news before that you might be more involved in Binance Labs' investment work. Are you mainly focusing on investment-related matters now?
CZ: Yes, that's right. We are now preparing to rebrand Binance Labs, which may be announced this week (already announced, Yzi Labs). I am indeed doing some investments now, but in terms of investments, I don't see many projects. I prefer to interact with early-stage entrepreneurs because I am an entrepreneur myself and am willing to support other entrepreneurs. Therefore, I pay more attention to early-stage investment projects. Recently, I have been interacting frequently with founders from various industries, and everyone is very courteous. Many people come to meet me for a chat, and I try to offer advice wherever I can.
Through interacting with these founders, I have learned a lot. For the past seven to eight years, I have been focused on Binance's centralized exchange business. Now, I have come into contact with many new areas such as AI, life sciences, and many new things in the blockchain field. People may think I know everything about blockchain, but when you are busy operating a centralized exchange, you don't have time to delve into many new things, and I only have a superficial understanding. Now I have the opportunity to spend more time learning from these founders and understanding the new things they are working on, which I find very interesting.
Views on Ethereum's Challenges
Colin: Another interesting question, do you usually browse Twitter? Recently, Vitalik has been under intense attack, and yesterday Justin Sun even offered him advice. What is your view on the current challenges facing Ethereum? Any suggestions?
CZ: I think this is more of a public relations crisis, a PR issue. Ethereum itself is actually still very strong. Looking at its market cap, apart from Bitcoin, it is larger than other coins. Although Solana has seen rapid growth, its market cap is still behind that of Ethereum. To be honest, Justin Sun has always been fond of riding on hot topics, and he has done well in PR. However, Justin Sun offering advice to Vitalik is like a small exchange offering advice to a large exchange; there is still a gap in business scale. Of course, Justin Sun is very smart and has his strengths; every founder has their outstanding qualities.
Vitalik is a technical genius, and this cannot be overlooked or denied. Innovations like ERC-20, NFTs, Soul-bound Tokens are all his inventions that originated from Ethereum, and he has made significant contributions to the entire industry. Although the price of Ethereum has not risen much in the short term, its overall market cap is still quite substantial.
From my perspective, I support every entrepreneur in the industry. Both Vitalik and Justin Sun have had a tough journey. For those involved in speculation, it's challenging to ensure only gains without losses; it's impossible for prices to always go up, as the industry is bound to be volatile. I advise everyone to maintain a long-term investment mindset and not let their emotions be swayed by price movements. Since its inception, Ethereum has seen an overall increase in value greater than Bitcoin, which is quite remarkable. Vitalik recently tweeted a few times, perhaps not at the best timing.
Colin: Feeling a bit anxious.
CZ: Furthermore, his way of speaking may not be very well-received; coming from a technical background, he is quite straightforward, and being young adds to that directness. For example, when he mentions certain aspects as under his control or direction, it triggers more backlash. However, as industry practitioners, we should be more tolerant of him. We shouldn't put undue pressure on him for minor issues. Entrepreneurship is genuinely challenging.
Addressing the Challenges Faced by Crypto Entrepreneurs
Colin: Moreover, this industry requires diversity; not everyone should focus solely on Solana or create MEME coins. Also, not everyone should be like Justin Sun. The industry should have various development directions. You mentioned that you are mainly focusing on communicating with and supporting entrepreneurs now, but it seems that crypto entrepreneurship is facing some difficulties. A popular saying lately is that a good product doesn't need a token, and a good token doesn't necessarily need a product. However, crypto entrepreneurship seems to have an issue. Besides financial services, it appears challenging to make money in other fields, making the entrepreneurial path quite narrow. Do you feel this way? What advice or thoughts do you have for these entrepreneurs?
CZ: This is the first time I've heard that saying today. However, my perspective is entirely different; I believe there are many opportunities in the crypto industry right now. Many projects can both excel in their own right and have outstanding token performance. Conversely, I think that if there is only a token without an actual project to support it, it is challenging to understand how its value can be sustained in the long run. Even for MEME coins, there needs to be value behind them; they cannot rely solely on hype. Therefore, I think there are many things that can be done in the industry. The trading volume on decentralized exchanges is increasing, with more people using them. However, every blockchain experiences congestion during high transaction volume periods, even though Solana claims to be fast; it has recently faced congestion issues. Additionally, there is still significant room for improvement in wallet usability.
Many industries have yet to be served by blockchain, such as the scientific research field, where many scientists require funding for their research. While there may be many failures, once successful, the returns could be substantial. This model is viable; it's just not fully realized yet. Now, some politicians are also starting to release MEME coins. After releasing them, how to provide value support for these MEME coins is something that needs to be explored.
From my perspective, I have always seen myself as an entrepreneur. I see countless opportunities and always feel like there's too much to do. Good entrepreneurs are always the scarcest resource. People who speculate on coins may complain about why the coins they bought didn't skyrocket immediately. But if you extend the time frame a bit, a few months ago when Bitcoin was at $60,000, everyone was very happy, thinking it had reached a new high. Now that it's at $100,000, everyone is still complaining. I think one should not expect gains every day; one should take a long-term view.
Discussion on Bitcoin Price Trends
Colin: What do you think is the highest price Bitcoin can reach in this cycle?
CZ: Many people have asked me this question, but I really can't say. However, I think Bitcoin has not peaked in this cycle yet. Trump has just taken office, and a series of new regulations in the U.S. have not been introduced. I think there will be many positive developments in the future. I have always been very optimistic about the entire industry. Even in the most severe bear market, I remain optimistic, and the same goes for the bull market. So I have always been quite optimistic, but my views may not be entirely accurate.
Shift in Attitude Towards U.S. Digital Currency Policy
Colin: In your last interview in Dubai, I remember Trump had not taken office at that time. You mentioned that you didn't want to have any relationship with the U.S. back then. Has your attitude changed now that you seem very confident today? But if you get closer to Trump or the U.S., and in two or four years the Democratic Party regains power and the policies fluctuate, how would you deal with that?
CZ: Yes, the last interview should have been before the U.S. election, probably at the end of October or early November. At that time, the U.S. election had not yet begun, so the situation in the U.S. was not clear. It was uncertain who would be elected, and even if someone was elected, it was unclear how optimistic Trump was about digital currency.
But there have been significant changes in the past few months. Not only was Trump elected, but he also issued related policies, which was unexpected before. Now, the newly appointed officials in the U.S., especially those in key government positions, are very supportive of digital currency. From this transition, it is clear that the influence of digital currency is significant. Many young people hold digital currency, and if the system is unfriendly towards digital currency, it will directly affect their wealth, which will impact their votes. This is an instinctive response. So it is quite clear that digital currency can no longer be ignored. Personally, I feel that the previous view that suppressing digital currency would gain more support is wrong, as evidenced by the recent election results. Therefore, I believe that in the next four years, digital currency will experience further development, and the probability of returning to the previous suppression attitude in four years is very low.
Just like the early days of the Internet, there were doubts about its benefits and drawbacks. However, as it developed, its widespread acceptance became undeniable. Therefore, the risks four years from now are, first, relatively small. Second, it is currently evident that the Republican Party in the United States has a strong pool of talent, such as the Vice President, who also has high prestige. So we'll have to wait and see what happens four years from now. But currently, the United States has a positive attitude towards digital currency, which is a very favorable development for the entire industry. All countries are now actively advancing blockchain regulatory provisions, and these provisions are becoming increasingly friendly, which is very encouraging. Binance currently does not serve U.S. users, but there is an independent company called Binance US. Although it has Binance in its name, it is a completely separate entity from Binance. Due to some issues in the past, its scale has decreased significantly, but it is still operational. We hope that it can grow healthily in the United States and continue to thrive amidst the favorable conditions in the U.S.
I believe that Binance US has a competitive product. It has twice reached 45% to 50% of Coinbase's global trading volume, but on both occasions, it experienced declines due to other third-party objective reasons. So, as long as regulatory provisions are fair, it is highly competitive, and that aspect doesn't particularly worry me.
Sharing Daily Life
Colin: I have some friends who would like to ask you a few questions. First, how do you spend your day? Second, your previous annual New Year's resolution was to develop six-pack or eight-pack abs. How is your progress now? Third, which is your favorite city?
CZ: Alright. Regarding my daily routine, I am now much more relaxed than before. I usually schedule about seven to eight meetings a day, make a few phone calls, but now I can exercise every day, go to the gym, and currently enjoy two sports.
Both these sports are board-related; one is skiing, and the other is kiteboarding. When it's windy, I play for one to two hours every day, and the rest of the time is spent on meetings and the like. My life now is more like that of a retired investor, much better than when I was the Binance CEO. Speaking of six-pack abs, when I had just come out of prison, I could vaguely see a six-pack abs, and I even took a photo.
Colin: Is it because you're eating lighter?
CZ: The food there was really terrible, so I ate very little. When I just got out, I could vaguely see a six-pack abs. Someday, when I have the courage, I might post that photo I casually took in the bathroom; it's not a glamorous photo. It's been very difficult to maintain a six-pack abs since coming out of prison because I did not eat well before, and suddenly having delicious food made it hard to restrain myself. Building abs requires dietary control, but I currently lack strong dietary discipline, so the six-pack abs are gone again. That was probably the closest I've been to having a six-pack abs. What was the third question again? Ah, the favorite city.
I like many cities, each with its own unique characteristics. Right now, I feel very comfortable living in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the UAE. The business environment and the digital currency environment here are good, and the country's management and public security are also very good. Of course, there are also some downsides, as this is a desert, and summers are indeed very hot. However, winters are very pleasant, just like it is right now. I also really like cities like Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore. There are also many nice cities in Europe, but currently, Europe is progressing slowly in the field of digital currency, so I haven't visited much. I haven't visited South America and the United States much because they are far away. I am mostly active in the Middle East and Asia right now. In Thailand, the traffic is congested, but I still quite like it for other reasons.
Colin: Can only travel by motorcycle.
CZ: Yes, but usually when I go to a place, I mostly stay at the hotel. I don't spend much time on the road; I meet many people at the hotel.
New Year's Greetings to Chinese Entrepreneurs and Investors
Colin: Finally, thank you, CZ, for taking the time. I hope we will have the opportunity to continue our conversation next time. As the Chinese New Year is approaching, could you say something to Chinese entrepreneurs and investors?
CZ: Sure, thank you very much, Colin, for giving me this opportunity. I think we can definitely communicate more frequently in the future. Previously, in many Asian communities, I usually had He Yi in charge of the Asian market, and I mainly focused on the English market; that's how we divided the work. Therefore, my communication with the Chinese community may not have been enough. Now that I have "retired," I will pay attention to both sides as an individual.
Here, my advice to everyone is to approach this industry, technology, and industry development with the right mindset and patience. Whether you are an investor or an entrepreneur, the entire industry is on the rise. Although there may not be significant progress every day, the overall trend is very favorable on a monthly or annual basis. Everyone should be patient and not rush, whether in entrepreneurship, launching a coin, or investing, steady progress in your own work is key. I think this year will be a very good year. So, I wish a Happy New Year to all friends and supporters in the Chinese community. Additionally, in the future, I will spend more time engaging with the Chinese community, and we can communicate more in the future.
Colin: Okay, thank you, CZ.
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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One Month Left in Office, Has Trump and Musk's Political Alliance Broken Down?
Recently, a high-profile dispute at the White House once again brought the U.S. government into the spotlight. The head of the Department of Government Efficiency, Musk, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary Bennett engaged in a heated argument due to ideological differences, almost escalating into a physical confrontation. In the end, Trump accepted Bennett's appointment proposal, raising concerns about cracks in the relationship between Trump and Musk. Behind this conflict is not only a power clash between Silicon Valley and Washington but also a revealing of the complex game from "close allies" to "power balancing" between Trump and Musk.
Looking back to the beginning of the year, Trump's most significant political reform involving Musk was the establishment of the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) to promote radical reform under the guise of "streamlining the government." Its core objectives include reducing government spending, digitizing the bureaucratic system, and replacing human decision-making with algorithms. The core team consists of 6 technical elites aged 19-25. Since Trump took office on January 20th, DOGE has swiftly carried out its restructuring, from shutting down the U.S. International Development Agency to significantly reducing the number of federal government employees, and even obtaining taxpayer privacy information to enhance fiscal efficiency. Under Trump's direction and support, Musk has bravely faced the challenges and spearheaded a radical reform storm in the United States.
Related Reading: "Terminating hundreds of contracts in 18 days, Musk and six post-00s revolutionize the United States" "Cutting billions of dollars in contracts again, what peculiar government departments has Musk's D.O.G.E identified?"
According to DOGE's official website data, as of April 20, 2025, DOGE has saved approximately $160 billion in total, averaging about $993.79 saved per taxpayer, with savings in various areas:
Contract Terminations: 8,454 contracts terminated, saving about $30 billion. For example, terminating the Risk Management Agency's lease in Topeka, Kansas, with an annual rent of $121,800, is expected to save approximately $964,000 over multiple years.
Grant Cancellations: 9,699 grants terminated, saving about $33 billion. For example, terminating grants from the U.S. International Development Agency to the Global Vaccine and Immunization Alliance Foundation, saving a total of $1.75 billion.
Lease Terminations: 643 leases terminated, saving about $3 billion.
However, an NPR analysis points out that some contract terminations did not result in actual savings. For example, 794 contract cancellations were expected to bring no savings as the funds were already fully committed. Additionally, the DOGE calculated savings using the potential highest value of the contract rather than actual expenditures, leading to controversy.
As early as the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Musk began frequent interactions with Trump. At that time, Musk contributed $259 million, mobilized all Silicon Valley resources, and with his personal influence endorsement, became a key supporter for Trump's return to the White House. After Trump took office, as his "angel investor," Musk naturally gained unprecedented political status and power.
On February 7, Musk publicly expressed his support for Trump on social media. He said his love for Trump was "the maximum love that a straight man can give to another man."
On March 4, while attending Trump's State of the Union address, Musk was wearing a tie borrowed from Trump.
As Musk massively laid off federal employees from government agencies, a wave of vandalism against Tesla cars, intimidation of owners, and protests at dealership stores erupted nationwide. Tesla factories faced peaceful demonstrations and acts of destruction, including charging station fires. Vandalism of Cybertrucks surged across the U.S., with some owners even graffitiing their own Tesla vehicles to protest against Musk.
Reports of Tesla car and dealership vandalism as well as protest activities suggest that opposition to Musk has reached a boiling point. Bell Analyst Ben Carlo stated on CNBC, "When people's cars are at risk of being scratched or burned, even those who support Musk or are indifferent to Musk may have second thoughts about whether to buy a Tesla."
Musk has also stated multiple times that running his own businesses is "very challenging." Tesla's stock price has experienced its most severe drop in five years, and his social media company X has also suffered multiple outages.
However, such swift reforms are bound to harm the interests of a considerable portion of people. From the day Musk entered politics, opposition voices have been constant. Tesla's stock has plummeted since Musk took office, nearly halving its market value, marking the most severe decline in five years. This has led to Musk's personal assets evaporating by approximately $121 billion since the beginning of the year.
As Musk's biggest political backer and ally, Trump inevitably had to stand up for him when Musk came under attack.
On the afternoon of March 11th, local time in the U.S., Trump held a 30-minute press conference on the White House driveway. The press conference looked more like a large-scale Tesla car show—accompanied by Musk, Trump answered questions about the U.S. stock market, Canadian tariffs, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict while test-driving five different types and colors of Tesla cars.
"The one I like is that one," Trump pointed to a bright red Model S priced at about $80,000, saying. In the end, Trump chose the Model S and said he would write an $80,000 check to buy the car in full.
Trump also criticized those who were boycotting Tesla, believing that they were harming a great American company. He claimed that if the boycotters continued to treat Tesla this way, he would root out these people and "curse" them to "hell." White House spokesperson Harrison Fields also stated: "The despicable acts of violence being continuously carried out by radical left-wing activists against Tesla are no different from domestic terrorism."
Under Trump's "endorsement," Tesla's stock price rebounded during trading on Tuesday, rising 3.79% at the close.
To show loyalty, on March 24th, at Trump's third cabinet meeting, Musk wore a red hat with the words "Trump is always right."
During this period, the two were still intimate comrades-in-arms dedicated to advancing reform. Trump needed a "sharp tool" to expand his territory, while Musk needed a platform to realize his political ambitions. Both were highly aligned in their goals and interests.
Since Trump announced his high tariffs policy, a conflict arose between Trump's political goals and Musk's personal interests, leading to a crack in their relationship. The high tariffs caused a sharp drop in the U.S. stock market in a short period, and Musk's assets have shrunk by over $100 billion since the beginning of the year. Musk, as an entrepreneur, views issues from an economic rather than political perspective, supporting barrier reduction and free trade. He has also repeatedly expressed his opposition to the tariff policy.
On April 5, during the Italian Alliance Assembly held in Florence, Musk, in a video call interview with Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, expressed, "Ultimately, I hope that Europe and the United States can reach an agreement. In my view, ideally, we should move towards zero tariffs, effectively establishing a free trade area between Europe and North America." On April 7, Musk shared a video on Twitter featuring the late free-market economist Milton Friedman discussing the benefits of free trade. Musk did not add any text, but this move was widely interpreted as a criticism of Trump's tariff policies.
Musk's brother, Kimbal Musk, also criticized Trump's tariff policy on Twitter, pointing out that "Taxing consumption means less consumption, which also means fewer job opportunities, leading to even less consumption and fewer job opportunities." He believes that taxation is a "structural, permanent tax on American consumers."
Particularly targeted at trade advisor Peter Navarro, Musk has also made many criticisms and sarcastic comments. On April 8, he replied to a post quoting Navarro's interview where Navarro referred to Tesla more as an "assembler" than a "manufacturer," criticizing its components coming from China, Japan, and Taiwan. Musk directly responded in a heated manner, stating, "Navarro is a complete idiot, what he said here is obviously false," followed by a community note proving the Tesla Model Y is the "most American-made car." One retort apparently wasn't enough, as Musk further referred to Navarro as "dumber than a sack of bricks" in another post.
Their contradictory stances on the tariff issue gradually fermented in the intricate power struggle.
On April 23, local time, it was reported by insiders that on April 17, Musk and Treasury Secretary Bezos had a heated clash during a meeting in the West Wing of the White House. Bezos lost control of his emotions and erupted with profanity, to which Musk provocatively responded with a "raise your voice." The confrontation even escalated to personal attacks, with Bezos angrily accusing Musk of exaggerating the DOGE budget cut issue, leading to no progress. Musk, in turn, directly retorted that Bezos was a "Soros puppet" and mocked him for his previous hedge fund debacle. The argument alarmed Trump and visiting Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and it took assistant intervention to separate the two.
The direct cause of this conflict was the controversy over the appointment of the IRS Commissioner. As Elon Musk, serving as the head of the U.S. Department of Efficiency, proposed the appointment of Gary Sharply as the Acting Commissioner of the IRS without the approval of Treasury Secretary Bennett, Bennett viewed this as a violation of his authority. He lobbied President Trump to revoke the appointment and instead support his own deputy, Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Falkend, for the position of IRS Commissioner.
The outcome of this power struggle seemed to favor Bennett as President Trump eventually supported Bennett's proposal, revoked Musk's nomination of Sharply, and appointed Falkend as the Acting Commissioner of the IRS.
The fact that two top U.S. officials could be so enraged as to publicly curse each other at the White House gates despite their public image was due to their long-standing animosity. Back when Trump first took office, Musk had strongly advocated for nominating Howard Lutnick as Treasury Secretary, but Trump ultimately chose Bennett and appointed Lutnick to lead the Department of Commerce. Perhaps from the beginning, Trump had strategically set up a situation where his subordinates would check each other, siding with whoever aligned more with his own ideas. This set the stage for future conflicts.
The conflict between the two was fundamentally a power struggle and game of influence between two factions within the Trump administration. The reformist faction represented by Musk sought to reshape the landscape through new policies, while the traditional faction represented by Bennett resisted actions that harmed their own interests. Trump's handling of this event was seen as a sign of Musk's diminished influence within the government.
It is worth noting that, regarding tariff policies, Bennett, unlike Musk's clear opposition, had publicly supported tariff policies, believing that implementing new tariffs in the U.S. was necessary. He also refuted the idea that new tariffs would cause an economic downturn. Perhaps the consistency in policy preferences was also a reason why Trump gradually leaned towards Bennett and distanced himself from Musk. After all, to Trump, a businessman by background, permanent interests matter more than permanent friends.
Musk's role was constrained by the 130-day term limit for special government employees, which began counting from Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, and is expected to expire at the end of May. Anonymous sources within the White House hinted at the end of February that Musk "will stay," but on March 31, Trump himself openly acknowledged Musk's prioritization of his commercial duties and showed no signs of insisting on retention. Perhaps as the mission of DOGE is accomplished, Musk's 130-day government employee term enters its final phase, and Trump will gradually sideline Musk from the power center, shifting to new allies who align more with his current interests. In retrospect, it's a poignant reminder of how fleeting alliances can be.
The world's richest person, Musk, experienced the thrill of a "Tech Disruption Workplace" at the center of American politics. He ignited a fire for Trump's "New Sheriff in Town," touching the interests of countless people. He reformed the behemoth of the American government at an incredible speed, leaving behind not only a controversial outline of "Algorithmic Governance" but also exposing the deep-seated contradictions between capital and power in American politics. This radical experiment of "Tech Transforming Politics" seems to be nearing its conclusion. When Musk truly departs, that red hat proclaiming "Trump Is Always Right" may perhaps become the most dramatic footnote to this brief "political marriage."
$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.