DeepSeek Suddenly Liquidates Bitcoin

By: blockbeats|2025/01/27 10:15:03
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Original Title: "DeepSeek Sudden Burst Shocks Bitcoin"
Original Source: Carbon Chain Value


The development trend of Ai+Crypto seems to be rapidly unfolding. However, the way this unfolding is happening is a bit different from what everyone had imagined. It is unfolding in the form of a sudden burst. Ai first burst the traditional capital market, and then burst into the Crypto market.

On January 27, the emerging Chinese Ai giant model DeepSeek's download volume surpassed ChatGPT for the first time. Topping the U.S. APPStore charts. Triggering global attention and coverage from the technology, investment, and even media sectors.

DeepSeek Suddenly Liquidates Bitcoin

Behind this event, not only does it make people think of the possibility of reshaping the future development landscape of Chinese and American technology, but it also conveys a brief sense of panic to the American capital market. As a result, Nvidia fell by 5.3%. ARM fell by 5.5%. Broadcom fell by 4.9%. TSMC fell by 4.5%. Additionally, Micron, AMD, Intel all experienced corresponding declines. Even the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by -400 points. It is expected to mark the largest single-day decline since December 18. According to incomplete statistics, the U.S. stock market is expected to evaporate over $1 trillion in market value during Monday's trading, shedding a third of the total cryptocurrency market value.

Following the trend of the U.S. stock market, the cryptocurrency market also witnessed a sudden drop due to DeepSeek's actions. Bitcoin broke below $100,500, with a 24-hour drop of 4.48%. ETH fell below $3,200, with a 24-hour drop of 3.83%. Many are still puzzled as to why the cryptocurrency market experienced a rapid plunge. It may be related to reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut and other macro factors.

So where does the market panic come from? DeepSeek did not develop with a massive capital and a huge number of GPUs like OpenAI, Meta, or even Google. OpenAI was founded 10 years ago, has 4,500 employees, and has raised $6.6 billion in funding to date. Meta spent $600 billion to develop an AI data center almost the size of Manhattan. In contrast, DeepSeek, founded less than 2 years ago, has 200 employees, development costs of less than $10 million, and did not spend a fortune accumulating Nvidia's GPU.

Some can't help but ask: How can they compete with DeepSeek?

DeepSeek has disrupted not only the cost advantage on the capital/technology front but also people's inherent traditional beliefs and ideologies.

The Product VP of DropBox exclaimed on social media platform X that DeepSeek is a classic disruptive story. Existing enterprises are optimizing existing processes, while disruptors are rethinking fundamental methods. DeepSeek asked: What if we do this smarter instead of putting more hardware in?

It's worth noting that currently, the cost of training top-tier AI large models is extremely expensive. Companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, etc., spend upwards of $100 million on computations alone. They need large data centers equipped with thousands of $40,000 GPUs. It's like needing an entire power plant to run a factory.

Suddenly, DeepSeek appeared and said, "What if we do this with $5 million?" They didn't just talk the talk; they walked the walk. Their model is on par with or even surpasses GPT-4 and Claude in many tasks. How did they do it? They rethought everything from scratch. Traditional AI is like writing each number with 32 decimal places. DeepSeek is like, "What if we only use 8 decimal places? It's still accurate enough!" Memory requirements reduced by 75%.

The Product VP of DropBox said the staggering result is that training costs decreased from $100 million to $5 million. The required GPUs decreased from 100,000 to 2,000. API costs dropped by 95%. It can run on gaming GPUs without data center hardware. Most importantly, they are open source. It's not magic; it's just incredibly clever engineering.

Some have even stated that DeepSeek has completely disrupted traditional notions in the field of artificial intelligence: "China only knows how to do closed-source/proprietary technology. Silicon Valley is the global center for AI development, with a huge lead. OpenAI has an unparalleled moat. You need to spend tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars to develop SOTA models. The value of the model will continue to accrue (the fat model hypothesis and the scalability assumption mean that model performance is linearly related to training input costs (computation, data, GPU). All these traditional views, even if not completely overturned overnight, have been shaken."

The prominent US equity investment firm Archerman Capital, in its briefing on DeepSeek, stated, "First, DeepSeek represents a victory for the entire open-source relative to closed-source, and contributions to the community by DeepSeek will quickly translate into prosperity for the entire open-source community. I believe that the open-source power, including Meta, will further develop open-source models based on this. Open-source is a collective effort of many people contributing to achieve great things."

Secondly, OpenAI's groundbreaking approach may currently seem a bit rudimentary, but we cannot rule out the possibility that a new paradigm shift will occur once a certain threshold is reached. This could widen the gap between closed source and open source, although this is hard to predict. Looking at the historical experience of AI development over the past 70 years, computational power has been crucial and may continue to be so in the future.

Furthermore, DeepSeek aims to make open-source models as good as closed-source models, with even higher efficiency. This reduces the need to spend money on OpenAI's API, as private deployment and independent fine-tuning will provide greater room for downstream applications. In the coming one or two years, we are likely to witness a more diverse range of inference chip products and a more prosperous LLM application ecosystem.

Lastly, the demand for computational power will not decrease. The Jevons Paradox illustrates how, during the first Industrial Revolution, the efficiency improvement of steam engines actually increased the total consumption of coal in the market. Similarly, from the era of brick-sized cell phones to the era of Nokia phones, it was precisely because they became cheaper that they became widespread, and it was because they became widespread that the total market consumption increased.

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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating

On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.



On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.


Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.


In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.


Side Effects of ETFs


Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.



Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.


According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.


This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.


Chart showing the trend of net outflows for Grayscale among the 11 institutions


Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.



In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.


According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.



However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.


The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.


Robinhood Takes a Stand, Traditional Brokerages Join the Fray


On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.



With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.


In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.



Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.



Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.



User Data Breach: Is Coinbase Still Secure?


In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.


Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.


Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.


Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.


Visualization: ChatGPT, Source: Farside


In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.


Visualization: ChatGPT


Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.


CEXs are All in Self-Rescue Mode


Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.



Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.


Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.



Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.


With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.


However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.


In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.


The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.


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