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Glassnode: How Severe is This Sell-off? Is it a Normal Retracement?
Original Article Title: Profiling the Sell-Off
Original Source: Glassnode
Original Translation: Tao Zhu, Golden Finance
Abstract
· Bitcoin investors suffered substantial losses during the economic downturn, with the BTC price dropping to $93,000 at one point.
· However, when we standardize these losses into BTC terms, the severity of the loss seems consistent with other local adjustments.
· The majority of locked losses come from the short-term holder group, as the profitability of local top buyers rapidly declined.
· The altcoin industry experienced the most significant relative losses during the economic downturn, with global altcoin market cap going through one of the largest depreciations in history.
Significant Depreciation
Last week, Bitcoin investors experienced a sharp price fluctuation. The BTC price initially dropped to a low of $93,000, then briefly rebounded to $102,000, and is currently trading close to $98,000. This indecisive price action was primarily in response to President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, providing investors with an uncertain macro backdrop. Additionally, the continued strength of the US dollar has led to a slightly tense liquidity environment.
While Bitcoin's price has been highly volatile in recent weeks, it has not strayed too far from its starting point during this period, as daily fluctuations and sideways movement continue.
How has the composition of Bitcoin investors evolved during this cycle? Bitcoin's liquidity has significantly increased, with larger capital flows balancing the inertia of increasingly large assets. Furthermore, even in a relatively unstable macro backdrop, an increasing number of steadfast, patient holders are contributing to the stability of Bitcoin's price.
On the other hand, the altcoin industry has faced significant selling pressure, with many assets struggling to achieve widespread adoption or align their product with the market, making the market environment more challenging. This has ultimately led to a sharp decline in token prices, with the performance of all altcoin subsectors in recent weeks lagging behind Bitcoin.
To explore the downtrend in the altcoin space, we can utilize Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to project token returns' correlations into a two-dimensional space. This visualization helps identify tokens that exhibit similar performance (clustered together) or different performance (far apart) based on their return behavior.
We can observe that most ERC-20 tokens are densely clustered together, highlighting a widespread sell-off where many altcoins experienced similar behavior, lacking distinctiveness across different sectors.
In other words, few tokens have been able to escape this week's downward trend, they have essentially all moved lower in unison.
We can assess the magnitude of the decline by evaluating the global altcoin market cap's 14-day change. Over the past two weeks, the altcoin market cap has fallen by $234 billion, with the absolute decline greater on a few days.
The severity of this decline highlights the scale of the sell-off event, reasonably considered an event within the altcoin bear market.
It is quite interesting because Bitcoin does not seem to exhibit the same relative weakness, indicating a growing divergence between BTC and the rest of the digital asset space.
Viewed in percentage terms, the altcoin decline is still significant, with only 41 out of 1662 trading days having a greater decline. However, on this relative scale, it does indeed align more closely with the previous downturn event experienced throughout the entirety of 2024.
Compared to the sell-offs in May 2021 (Great Miner Migration) and the collapse of LUNA/UST and 3AC at the end of 2022, the current decline is much smaller.
Check Bitcoin Losses
Despite Bitcoin's price remaining relatively stable over the week, the actual losses locked in by Bitcoin investors during the price fluctuations represent one of the largest losses in the current bull market cycle. As the market dropped to $93,000, investors locked in approximately $520 million in losses, marking one of the largest sell-off events to date.
Therefore, we can see this as a significant sell-off event amidst the macro bull market uptrend. Only the losses locked in during the yen carry trade liquidation on August 5, 2023, were greater on a single day (actual loss being -$1.3 billion).
As Bitcoin's scale grows, we must also consider that, compared to previous price ranges, the absolute measure of actual losses may be misleading. When evaluating these losses in terms of BTC denomination, this actually normalizes market size, making the severity of losses appear more "typical."
The magnitude of this recent loss surge is similar to the partial sell-off event before the full-year 2024, indicating that this may still be considered a normal event during a bull market correction/consolidation phase.
Loss Analysis
During a bull market, long-term investors usually reap significant profits. Therefore, the main source of realized losses is the group of short-term holders, which represents a recent cohort of investors with the highest average cost basis.
Typically, there are no losses for long-term holders during a bull market. Losses for the LTH group usually begin as the cycle transitions from a bull to a bear market and accelerate as the market downturn intensifies, culminating in a final capitulation event usually near the macro cycle lows.
Conversely, relatively price-sensitive short-term holders often incur significant losses during both bull and bear market downturns. The total realized losses from this week's adjustment by short-term holders amount to $520 million, similar in magnitude to the retracement seen throughout the entire 2024-25 cycle so far.
Further analysis of short-term holder losses reveals that the majority of losses are attributed to investors who purchased the token within the past month. The breakdown by coin age is as follows:
· 24-hour realized loss: $68.5 million
· 1 day to 1 week realized loss: $286.3 million
· 1 week to 1 month realized loss: $479.1 million
· 1 month to 3 months realized loss: $14.5 million
· 3 months to 6 months realized loss: $112 million
This reinforces the notion that a significant portion of on-chain transaction volume and realized losses are often related to investors who have recently entered the market, making them most sensitive to volatility and price fluctuations.
Future Outlook
With the price volatility, we can employ a set of on-chain derived pricing levels to explore some potential paths and thresholds for future prices.
To assess key support areas, we can use the MVRV Z-score on a 1-year rolling window. This particular transformation can provide a clearer picture of recent market dynamics, with the model capturing only recent market behavior.
· +1σ: $118,000 (red)
· Mean: $96,300 (yellow)
· -1σ: $8.01K (Blue)
Currently, the price is finding strong support near the mean. If the price drops below the -1σ level, it could potentially become a key threshold for the next major defense support for the bulls. Conversely, the +1σ level could act as a resistance as investors have amassed significant unrealized gains and may look to realize them into market strength.
As we have identified that the majority of the losses are coming from the short-term hodler cohort, emphasizing their investment positioning while the market trades around the mid MVRV support range is a prudent move.
Historically, the short-term hodler's average cost basis has also acted as a strong support level during the uptrend of a bull market. The current trading price from this pricing model is around $92.2K, a critical zone for the market to avoid further downside.
We can similarly adopt a ±1σ range based on a full retrospective Z-score transformation to evaluate the typical upper and lower limits of price behavior.
· Short-Term Hodler Cost Basis +1σ: $13.1K
· Short-Term Hodler Cost Basis -1σ: $7.1K
Currently, the spot price is trading within the upper and lower limits and hovering above the STH cost basis. This indicates that the bulls are still in control, but the price is approaching their first line of defense and almost tested the STH cost basis in a recent sell-off event.
When overlaying the price trajectory on the URPD volume distribution chart, the significance of defending the STH cost basis and the MVRV 1Yr Z-Score pricing region becomes increasingly apparent. Significant volume voids can be seen below these levels, indicating little token turnover in this price range.
Furthermore, the -1σ band of the STH cost basis sits at the upper limit of this volume void, suggesting that if the price were to drop to this level, it could be a relatively sensitive area.
Summary
Over the past few weeks, the price of Bitcoin has experienced both sharp fluctuations and a tendency to stabilize. It has surged to a high of $10.5K at one point and dropped to a low of $9.3K at another, but by the end of this week, the price remains around $9.8K.
This volatile price action has resulted in significant losses, totaling $520M, one of the largest losses in this cycle when measured in USD. However, when assessing the severity of the downturn through standardized metrics, the sell-off still aligns roughly with other local corrections.
In contrast, the altcoin industry experienced a widespread sell-off and failed to find its footing. Most tokens went through a highly correlated downtrend, with hardly any industry spared.
This led to one of the largest altcoin sell-offs in history, highlighting a significant disconnect between Bitcoin and the typical rotation of capital into altcoins seen in previous market cycles.
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
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Ika Receives Strategic Investment from Sui Foundation, Total Funding Exceeds $21 Million
Switzerland Zug, April 28, 2025, Chainwire
The world's fastest parallel MPC network, Ika, is set to launch on the Sui blockchain, announces a strategic investment from the Sui Foundation. Previously, Ika successfully completed a record-breaking 1.4 million SUI NFT art event on Sui. Ika is the world's first sub-second MPC network, capable of achieving zero-trust interoperability among hundreds of signing nodes, unprecedented in scale and rock-solid security.
Ika's core values of performance, speed, and high decentralization align perfectly with Sui. With its upcoming launch on the Sui blockchain, Ika will bring its unparalleled MPC technology into the Sui ecosystem, providing Sui Move smart contract developers with secure cross-Web3 interoperability. This further solidifies Sui's position as the preferred solution in cross-chain DeFi, decentralized custody, chain abstraction, AI-agent defense, native Bitcoin programmability, leveraging the first truly scalable and secure MPC signature scheme.
Ika addresses key bottlenecks of existing MPC networks and delivers unparalleled performance through innovative 2PC-MPC encryption scheme and Sui's Mysticeti consensus protocol:
1. Record Throughput: Ika's transaction processing capability is up to 10,000 times higher than current MPC networks, supporting unprecedented transaction volumes.
2. Ultra-Low Latency: While traditional network signatures may experience delays of 30 seconds or more, Ika can generate signatures in sub-seconds, supporting cross-chain real-time applications.
3. Tremendous Scalability: Ika breaks the conventional limit of 4-8 nodes, and the 2PC-MPC can scale to hundreds or even thousands of signers, enhancing decentralization without sacrificing performance.
4. Zero-Trust Security: Ika's architecture ensures that even in the most extreme scenarios, user assets remain secure, setting a new standard for decentralized security.
Ika's ultra-fast MPC network supports various applications on the Sui blockchain, and several Sui developers have utilized Ika to build tech, including:
· DeFi Interoperability: Ika's sub-second speed and scalability enable instant secure operations within the Web3 ecosystem, bringing liquidity from chains like Bitcoin and Ethereum into Sui. Sui developers Full Sail and Rhei have announced upcoming tech launches based on Ika.
· Decentralized Custody: Ika provides a secure, decentralized custody solution for digital assets on Sui, delivering unparalleled security for both institutional and individual users. Sui developers Aeon and Human Tech have announced the integration of Ika into their technology.
· Chain Abstraction: Ika helps Sui developers abstract away multi-chain complexity for users, combining with Sui's zkLogin feature to deliver a seamless user experience. Sui developers Covault and Lucky Kat have announced the integration of Ika into their technology.
· Programmable Bitcoin: Ika unlocks new possibilities for native BTC on Sui, enabling programmable and secure DeFi and custody. Sui developers Native and Nativerse have announced the upcoming launch of Ika-based technology.
· AI Agent Protection: Ika enhances AI applications on Sui by providing secure MPC protection, ensuring AI agents do not possess unrestricted power and safeguarding user asset security. Sui developers Atoma and Ekko have announced the upcoming launch of Ika-based technology.
The strategic investment in Ika by the Sui Foundation underscores Sui's commitment to driving cutting-edge technology for high performance and decentralization. This amplifies the technical synergy within the Sui ecosystem, propelling Sui and Ika to the forefront of the Web3 revolution, jointly advancing the future of secure, scalable, decentralized infrastructure.
Ika has raised over $21 million in funding, with a peak private valuation of $6 billion FDV, backed by support from Sui Foundation, DCG, Big Brain Holdings, Blockchange, Node Capital, Amplify Partners, Liquid2 Ventures, FalconX, Tykhe Block Ventures, Lightshift, Token Bay Capital, Collider, Zero Knowledge Ventures, NoLimit Holdings, Rubik Ventures, Dispersion Capital, Insignius Capital, Impatient Ventures, Cerulean Ventures, Earl Grey Capital, HDI Ventures, Flowdesk, TPC Ventures, Purechain Capital, Solr DAO, Heroic Ventures, Naval Ravikant, NotVCs, G-20 Group, Artifact Capital, DSRV, Encapsulate, and many other key players in the Web3 space.
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Ika is the world's fastest parallel MPC network, offering sub-second latency, unprecedented scale and decentralization, and zero-trust security. As the preferred choice for interoperability, decentralized custody, and chain abstraction, Ika will fundamentally transform digital asset security and multi-chain DeFi.
Sui is the first Layer 1 blockchain and smart contract platform designed from the ground up to provide fast, private, secure, and inclusive digital assets. Built on the Move programming language, its object-centric model supports parallel execution, sub-second finality, and rich on-chain assets. Through horizontally scalable processing and storage capacity, Sui supports widespread applications at low cost with unparalleled speed. Sui represents a significant advancement in blockchain technology, offering creators and developers a platform to build exceptional user experiences.
Contact:
Ika PR
pr@ika.xyz (mailto:pr@ika.xyz)
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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating
On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.
On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.
Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.
Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.
Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.
According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.
This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.
In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.
According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.
However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.
The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.
On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.
With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.
In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.
Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.
Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.
In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.
Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.
Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.
Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.
In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.
Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.
Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.
Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.
Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.
Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.
With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.
However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.
In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.
The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.
Arthur Hayes: Why I'm Betting on ETH While the Market Is Obsessed with SOL
May 16 Key Market Information Gap, A Must-Read! | Alpha Morning Report
Key Market Intelligence on May 14th, how much did you miss out on?
1.Binance Alpha Launches HIPPO, BLUE, and Other Tokens
2.Believe Ecosystem Tokens See General Rise, LAUNCHCOIN Surges Over 250% in 24 Hours
3.Tiger Securities Introduces Cryptocurrency Deposit and Withdrawal Service, Supports Mainstream Cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH
4.Current Bitcoin Rally Possibly Driven by Institutions, Retail Traders Yet to Join
5.Binance Wallet's New TGE Privasea AI Participation Requires a 198 Point Threshold, with a Point Consumption of 15
Source: Overheard on CT (tg: @overheardonct), Kaito
PUMP: Today's discussions about PUMP focus on its new creator revenue-sharing model: the platform will allocate 50% of PumpSwap revenue to token creators, sparking varied reactions from users. Some criticize the move as insufficient or even misleading, while others view it as a positive step the platform is taking to reward creators. Meanwhile, PUMP faces market pressure from emerging competitors like LetsBONKfun and Raydium, which are rapidly gaining market share. Users also express concerns about PUMP's sustainability and potential regulatory risks in the U.S., with discussions extending to the platform's impact on the entire memecoin ecosystem.
COINBASE: Today, Coinbase became the first crypto company to join the S&P 500 Index, replacing Discover Financial Services, sparking widespread industry attention. The entire crypto community views this milestone as a significant development, signaling that crypto assets are further integrating into the mainstream financial system. The news has sparked lively discussions on Twitter, with many users pointing out that this may attract more institutional investors to enter the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets.
XRP: XRP became the focal point of today's crypto discussion, with its significant market movements and strategic advances drawing attention. XRP has surpassed USDT to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, sparking market excitement and discussions about its future potential. The surge in market capitalization and price is believed to be related to increasing institutional interest, deepening strategic partnerships, and its role in the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, XRP's integration into multiple financial systems and its potential as a macro asset class are also seen as key factors driving the current market sentiment.
DYDX: Today's discussions about DYDX mainly focused on the dYdX Yapper Leaderboard launched by KaitoAI. The leaderboard aims to identify the most active community participants, with a total of $150,000 in rewards to be distributed over the first three seasons. This initiative has sparked broad community participation, with many users discussing the potential rewards and the incentive effect on the DYDX ecosystem. Meanwhile, progress on the ethDYDX to dYdX native chain migration and historical airdrop events have also been topics of discussion.
1. "What Is 'ICM'? Holding Up the $4 Billion Market Cap Solana's New Narrative"
Overnight, the hottest narrative in the crypto space has become "Internet Capital Markets," with a host of crypto projects and founders, led by the Solana ecosystem's new Launchpad platform Believe, releasing this phrase. Together with "Believe in something," it has become the new slogan heralding the onset of a bull market. What exactly is the so-called "Internet Capital Market," will it become a short-lived hype phrase like the Base ecosystem's previous Content Coin, and what related targets are available for selection?2.《LaunchCoin Surges 20x in One Day, How Did Believe Create a $200M Market Cap Shiba Inu After Going to Zero?｜100x Retrospective》
LAUNCHCOIN broke through a $200 million market cap today, with the long-lost liquidity and such a high market cap "Memecoin" almost bringing half of the on-chain crypto community CT into the fray. The community is crazily discussing this token, with half of it being FOMO and the other half being FUD. This token, originally issued by Believe founder Ben Pasternak under his personal identity, transformed into a new platform token after a renaming. From once going to zero to a $200 million market cap, what happened in between?May 14 On-chain Fund Flow
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