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Week 13 On-chain Data: Whale's HODLing vs Market's FUD, Who Will Lead the Next Stage of Crypto?

By: blockbeats|2025/04/09 04:15:03
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Original Title: "Whale's Patience vs Market Panic: Who Will Lead Crypto's Next Phase? | WTR 4.07"
Original Source: WTR Research Institute

Weekly Recap

During this week from March 31st to April 7th, Bitcoin reached a high near $88,500 and a low near $74,508, with a fluctuation range of approximately 15.8%.

Observing the on-chain distribution chart, there is a significant volume of chips traded around 78,567, which may provide some support or resistance.

Week 13 On-chain Data: Whale's HODLing vs Market's FUD, Who Will Lead the Next Stage of Crypto?

• Analysis:

1. 1.55 million coins around 60,000-68,000;

2. 2.04 million coins around 90,000-100,000;

• The probability of short-term decline not breaking below 70,000 to 75,000 is 70%;

• The probability of short-term rise not breaking above 80,000 to 85,000 is 60%.

Important News Aspects

Economic News Aspect

• U.S. stock index futures have fallen by more than 15% over three consecutive days.
• Last week, the Nasdaq index fell by over 10%, the S&P 500 fell by over 9%, and the Dow Jones index fell by over 7%.
• The Kobeissi Letter data shows that the U.S. stock market lost $11.1 trillion in 44 trading days, approximately 38% of the U.S. GDP.
• The S&P 500 has evaporated about $5.4 trillion in market value in the past two days.
• Due to rumors (later debunked) that Trump was considering suspending tariffs, there was a significant intraday market movement (9.68% swing), especially in the Nasdaq, followed by a retreat after the White House denial (Nasdaq closed up 0.1%, S&P down 0.23%, Dow down 0.91%).

Fed Policy Expectations and Actions:

• Rate Cut Expectations Heighten/Front-Loading: Market expectations for an "emergency rate cut" by the Fed have surged.
• Options trading indicates a 40% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week (relative to the reporting time), much earlier than the originally scheduled May 7th meeting. The interest rate futures market fully prices in five rate cuts by 2025, with a 54.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in May.

Institutional Predictions:

• Goldman Sachs Prediction: If the U.S. avoids a recession, the Fed will start a series of three 25-basis-point rate cuts from June; if there is a recession, the Fed is expected to cut rates by about 200 basis points next year. The total rate cut by 2025 is projected to be 130 basis points (higher than the previous expectation of 105 basis points).
• Morgan Stanley joins Goldman Sachs, UBS, and others in predicting that the Fed will cut rates after June at every meeting until May 2026.
• Goldman Sachs has revised down its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q4 2025 to 0.5% and has increased the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 45%.
• Trump's Pressure: Trump stated on April 7th that the U.S. has no inflation and reiterated that the Fed should cut rates.

• The Fed held a closed-door meeting on April 7th, and the results are pending. The meeting minutes will be released this Thursday (relative to the reporting time).

Trade and Tariff Issues:

• Trump's Tariff Impact: Trump's insistence on implementing tariff measures is considered one of the key reasons for market turmoil.

• Bloomberg reported that Wall Street executives are pressuring the U.S. Treasury Secretary in an effort to persuade Trump to change his tariff stance.

• Attention is on the possible effective date of tariffs on April 9th; a Trump economic advisor stated that it is impossible to confirm if an agreement will be reached by then.
• EU Retaliation: The European Commission has proposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, effective from May 16th. Ursula von der Leyen called this a significant turning point for the U.S., but the EU is still prepared to negotiate.

1. Global Market Interconnection:

◦ On Monday, the Nikkei Index (dropped over 8% within the first 10 minutes of trading) and the KOSPI Index (dropped over 5%) triggered a circuit breaker.
◦ Major European stock indices (Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100) also plunged significantly (more than 4%).
◦ Gold price fell by 1.67% to $2984 per ounce (Note: Gold usually rises in a risk-off scenario, this information may need verification or have a specific background).

Cryptocurrency Ecosystem Updates

1. The total cryptocurrency market cap reported $2.51 trillion on April 7th, with a 24-hour decrease of 10.7%. Since January 20th (linked to something related to Trump), the market cap has evaporated by $1.111 trillion.
2. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 23 on April 7th (extreme fear), below the previous week's average of 34.
3. BTC once dropped to $74,500, and ETH dropped to $1411.
4. The Block reported that Monday's crypto market sell-off was mainly driven by global macro factors rather than inherent issues in the crypto market itself. An oversold condition may trigger a rebound sometime this week (depending on macro data).
5. Analyst Eugene Ng Ah Sio believes that the decline is part of the overall turbulence in U.S. stocks (including the crypto market), survival is key, and there may be an opportunity after the storm.

6. Standard Chartered Bank Analysis: U.S. "Isolationism" and Tariff Risk Could Increase BTC's Safe Haven Value (relative to USD risk), and if traditional markets have no broader safe haven, BTC could rebound to around $84,000.
7. Last week, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of $165 million.
8. Grayscale's BUIDL Fund (tokenized fund) reached a size of $19.4983 billion, with a weekly increase of $14 million and a growth of 191.71% in the past 30 days.

9. The "Whale/Institution 7 Siblings" increased their holdings by 25,102 ETH at an average price of $1,700, with the address holding over 660,000 ETH in total.
10. The U.S. SEC will hold its second roundtable discussion on "Customizing Regulation for Cryptocurrency Trading Volume" on April 11 Eastern Time.
11. An executive from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) stated at Web3 Summit that they will issue a circular allowing licensed virtual asset platforms to provide collateral services (including for spot ETFs) and will implement additional safeguards (such as mandatory custody and setting collateral ratio limits) to manage risks.

· Long-Term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull Market/Bear Market/Structural Changes/Neutral State

· Medium-Term Exploration: Used to analyze the stage we are currently in, how long it will last, and what situations we will face during this stage

· Short-Term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-Term Insight

• Exchange Whale Inflow-Outflow Net Position
• U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Fund Flows
• Bitcoin High-Weight Sell Pressure
• Illiquid Whales

(Below Image Exchange Whale Inflow-Outflow Net Position)

While the overall market is selling off due to macro panic and potential ETF outflows, the largest players (whales) appear to be taking advantage of this decline to withdraw tokens from exchanges. This may indicate:

• Accumulation/Distribution: They see the low price as a buying opportunity and are transferring coins to cold wallets for storage.
• Long-Term Holding Intentions: Protecting assets during high volatility periods, indicating confidence in holding even during market downturns.

This strongly suggests that these large entities are not the primary drivers of selling pressure on the current exchange.

Their behavior may even provide potential bottom support or indicate that "smart money" is accumulating chips.

(See chart: U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Fund Flows)

While there was indeed a significant net outflow during a recent price decline period (negative bar), a very large single-day net inflow (huge positive bar) has occurred at the most recent data point on the right side of the chart.

This is an extremely important signal. It indicates that recently, a large amount of funds has flowed into the Bitcoin market through the ETF channel.

This completely reverses the short-term assessment based solely on previous outflow data indicating "ETF demand exhaustion." It may imply:

• One or more large institutions/investors believe that the recent price is attractive and have entered the market decisively.
• This large inflow may indicate the beginning of a shift in market sentiment from extremely pessimistic to stabilizing, or at least a sign of selling pressure temporarily exhausting.
• The scale of this inflow may be sufficient to offset or even exceed the previous days' outflows, significantly improving the short-term supply/demand balance from the ETF channel.

Of course, single-day data may be incidental. It is necessary to observe whether the subsequent days' ETF flows can continue to be positive or remain stable to confirm a trend reversal.

(See chart: Bitcoin High Weighted Sell Pressure)


The main selling pressure from long-term holders may indeed be over.

• The high supply of short-term speculators at a peak level still poses a potential risk (they are prone to panic), but the recent significant ETF inflow may boost the market, temporarily stabilizing the price, alleviating some of the short-term speculators' selling pressure, and even giving them hope.
• If the price rebounds due to ETF inflows, the losing position of short-term speculators may improve.

(See chart: Illiquid Whale Cluster)

The recent large inflow is a strong mid-term signal, possibly marking the confirmation by strong buyers of an important support level in the retracement phase. However, this does not immediately change the fact that the long-term accumulation trend has slowed down.

It is more like a strong buy signal that emerged in an adjustment period. The current market situation is more complex and slightly positive than previously assessed.

Although the macro risk still exists, long-term holders have been distributing at high levels, the accumulation momentum has weakened, and a large number of short-term holders are at breakeven or at a loss, two key "smart money" or "institutional volume" signals have appeared simultaneously, and they point in the same direction (bullish on the current price range):

1. Whales continue to withdraw from exchanges, showing long-term holding confidence or off-exchange accumulation.
2. The latest data shows a significant amount of capital flowing into the market through ETFs, indicating strong buying volume intervention at recent lows.

These two signals together have weakened the short-term bearish expectations brought solely by the previous ETF outflows and high short-term speculator chip stack.

The market may be going through a stage of intense long and short force competition, where long-term bulls/large institutions are using pullbacks to accumulate positions, resisting the pressure brought by macro panic and some short-term holders' selling.

Future Outlook

Short Term:

◦ Volatility remains high, but the short-term bottom may have been found or is forming. The latest significant ETF inflow is a strong support signal.
◦ The key is to observe whether the future days' ETF flow can continue to be positive or remain neutral. If the inflow continues, the price is expected to stabilize or even rebound, greatly alleviating the pressure from short-term speculators. If subsequent flows turn significantly outwards again, it indicates that the inflow may have been an isolated event, and there is still downside risk in the market.

Medium Term:

• The possibility of consolidation and forming a bottom increases.
• If ETF inflows can continue for a period (even if not significant inflows every day, but overall no longer significant outflows), combined with whale off-exchange accumulation, it may form a relatively solid bottom near the current price range.
• The market still needs time to digest the chips of high-level short-term speculators and wait for the macro environment to become clearer.
• The fundamental view remains unchanged, long-term value logic is still valid.
• However, this significant ETF inflow (if proven to be a return of institutional behavior) may mean that institutional interest in Bitcoin has not disappeared due to short-term fluctuations; they may still be looking for strategic entry points.

This is positive for Bitcoin's broader acceptance and long-term value discovery.

Mid-Term Exploration

• Short-term, Long-term Participant Supply

• Network Sentiment Positivity
• Liquidity Supply
• Net Headroom of Loss Transfer Amount
• Derivative Clearing Structure

(Chart below Short-term, Long-term Participant Supply)

The current supply of short-term participants is still decreasing, while the supply of long-term participants is increasing.

The current structure may be in a low liquidity environment where short-term supply is weakening, leading to weaker support for secondary pricing.

Conversely, the rise in long-term funds may indicate a return to accumulation on the price chart, compressing the remaining available supply for sale in a cycle of supply-side deflation.

Similarly, in a phase where the market is gradually seeking a bottom, the accumulation of long-term chips favors a stronger breakout in the next market rally.

(Chart below Network Sentiment Positivity)

Network sentiment has been relatively low recently, indicating a poor overall market circulating supply condition.

Combined with the decrease in short-term participant supply, the current speculative capital in the market shows weaker momentum.

(Chart below Liquidity Supply)

Liquidity supply remains in a sluggish state, indicating that the market's structural repair still needs time.

(Chart below Net Headroom of Loss Transfer Amount)

If the selling pressure from loss-making chips gradually weakens, there may be signs of gradually contracting the left-side pricing, although it has not decreased yet but has reached a temporary maximum selling limit.

Assuming there is no continuous stampede of loss-selling, the selling pressure at the current stage may have reached a limit area.

(Chart below Derivative Clearing Structure)

The derivative clearing structure has shifted from a long position clearing to a short position clearing structure, which may exacerbate short selling pressure over time.

Short-Term Observations

• Derivative Risk Factor
• Options Intention-to-Trade Ratio
• Derivative Trading Volume
• Options Implied Volatility

• Profit and Loss Transfer Amount
• New Addresses and Active Addresses

• Sugar Orange Exchange Net Short Position
• Auntie Exchange Net Short Position
• High-Weight Sell Pressure
• Global Buying Power Status
• Stablecoin Exchange Net Short Position
• Off-chain Exchange Data

Derivative Rating: The risk factor is in the green zone, indicating reduced derivative risk.

(See Chart Derivative Risk Factor)

Driven by news, the market has experienced a rapid pullback, with the current risk factor entering the green zone. Solely based on indicators, the rapid liquidation risk to long positions has decreased again. However, this week's market sentiment is expected to be heavily influenced by news.

(See Chart Options Intention-to-Trade Ratio)

The put/call ratio and trading volume have both rapidly increased, with the current put/call ratio at a high level.

(See Chart Derivative Trading Volume)

Derivative trading volume has surged to the median level.

(See Chart Options Implied Volatility)

• Options implied volatility has experienced rapid short-term fluctuations.

• Sentiment Rating: Neutral

(See Chart Profit and Loss Transfer Amount)

The following is only applicable to BTC. With a rapid pullback, the market did not see a true "capitulation" panic sell-off, with only a small number of chips choosing to realize losses.

Observing the Orange Line (panic sell-off), if it touches the phase peak again, it is a relatively good short-term buying opportunity.

(Chart below shows New Addresses and Active Addresses)

- New active addresses are at a mid-low level.

- Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC and ETH both saw a small inflow

(Chart below shows Sugar Orange Exchange Net Inflows)

Currently, BTC has seen a small inflow.

(Chart below shows E.T. Exchange Net Inflows)

Currently, ETH has seen a small inflow.

(Chart below shows High-Weighted Selling Pressure)

- The current pullback has seen a small amount of high-weighted selling pressure participation.

- Buying Power Rating: Global buying power is in a state of erosion, with a small outflow in stablecoin buying power.

(Chart below shows Global Buying Power Status)

The current buying power is in a state of erosion.

(Chart below shows USDT Exchange Net Inflows)

- There is a small outflow in stablecoin buying power.

· Off-Chain Transaction Data Rating: Willing to buy at 70000; Willing to sell at 88000.

(See Coinbase Off-Chain Data below)

· Willing to buy around 65000-75000 price range;
· Willing to sell at 88000 price range.

(See Binance Off-Chain Data below)

· Willing to buy around 70000-75000 price range;
· Willing to sell at 88000 price range.

(See Bitfinex Off-Chain Data below)

· Willing to buy at around 65000, 75000 price range;
· Willing to sell at 88000 price range.

Weekly Summary:

News Summary:

The current financial market is undergoing a crisis of confidence driven by drastic changes in macroeconomics (especially the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies) and expectations of monetary policy (a significant bet on the Fed cutting rates substantially in advance). This has led to a widespread sell-off of risk assets including U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, with market sentiment in extreme panic.

The crypto market has shown a high degree of correlation with traditional risk assets in this storm, and short-term outflows of capital (such as BTC ETFs) have exacerbated downward pressure. However, there are also some long-term positive signals within the market, such as continued institutional engagement (BUIDL growth), some whales buying the dip, and the gradual establishment of regulatory frameworks (e.g., new regulations in Hong Kong).

In the short term, the market direction will depend heavily on key economic data to be released, Fed communication, and the final implementation of tariff policies. Volatility is expected to remain high.

Data-Driven Rebound or Plunge: If CPI/PPI data significantly falls below expectations, it may strengthen rate cut expectations, coupled with oversold sentiment, which could trigger a brief rebound in risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).

In the medium term, the Federal Reserve's actual policy path and its game with market expectations, as well as whether the U.S. economy is heading into a recession, will be the key drivers.

Fed's Actual Path vs Market Expectations: The core issue is whether the Fed will deliver on the market's aggressive rate cut expectations and how.

If the economic data does not deteriorate rapidly, the Fed may not cut rates as quickly or significantly as the market expects, which could lead to market repricing.

Whether the U.S. economy is on a substantial path to a recession will be crucial in influencing asset allocation and Fed policy.

In the long term, the evolution of the macroeconomic landscape and the clarification of the positioning of crypto assets' intrinsic value will determine their development trajectory.

Whether BTC and other crypto assets can establish their unique value proposition in different macroeconomic cycles (such as high inflation, recession, geopolitical risks) will be validated through longer-term performance.

The market's short-term direction heavily depends on upcoming events:

· Release of key U.S. economic data (CPI, PPI).
· Publication of the Fed meeting minutes (confirming or revising market expectations).
· Final decision on Trump's tariff policy (April 9th is a key observation point).

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. Whales have recently continued to withdraw from exchanges, indicating their confidence in accumulating or holding long-term positions during market downturns.

2. Spot ETFs experienced significant net outflows followed by a large single-day net inflow, suggesting strong buying interest at current price levels.

3. High-weight holders have taken profits at highs (VDD), but there are still a significant number of short-term holders (STH) in a fragile state possibly ready to sell.
4. Long-term whale cohorts show diminishing market accumulation momentum, and the momentum peak of this uptrend has passed.

• Market Tone:

After reaching a peak, the market is currently in a phase of pullback under macroscopic pressure.

Despite risks such as fragile short-term holders, positive signals have surfaced: whales accumulating off-exchange, and key spot ETFs experiencing significant single-day inflows.

The convergence of these signals indicates significant buying interest in the current price region, potentially forming a short-term bottom or strong support area, but the short-term outlook heavily relies on the sustainability of this ETF's new demand.

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

1. Short-term supply reduction coexists with long-term capital accumulation, leading the market into a low liquidity environment, indicating a potential future momentum-building phase.

2. Depressed market sentiment coupled with a contraction in short-term supply reflects a significant decrease in speculative capital activity.
3. Persistent liquidity shortage, requiring more time for structural market repair.
4. Current selling pressure has almost peaked, with signs of either left-side pricing or immediate contraction if it hasn't triggered a cascading sell-off.
5. Derivative liquidation structure transitioning from long to short, with the short-side risk exposure gradually accumulating over time.

• Market Tone:

· The current market is in a low liquidity stock game phase, with structural repair still in progress.
· Long-term capital is being accumulated, derivative short-side risk is accumulating, gradually entering a structural deflation phase with left-side convergence.

On-chain Short-term Observation:

1. Risk metrics are in the green zone, reducing derivative risk.
2. New active addresses are relatively low.
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. Net inflows on exchanges show a small amount of BTC and ETH entering.
5. Global purchasing power is in a declining state, with a slight outflow of stablecoin purchasing power.
6. Off-chain transaction data indicates buying interest at 70000; selling interest at 88000.
7. The probability of not breaking below 70000-75000 in the short term is 70%; with a 60% probability of not breaking above 80000-85000 in the short term.

• Market Tone:

For BTC, the market's panic selling has not truly fermented, with only a small number of chips choosing to realize losses. This week, the market is still heavily influenced by news, so short-term investors should exercise patience and wait for news to develop or for true emotional extremes before making trades.

Risk Reminder:

The above is all market discussion and exploration and does not provide directional views for investment; please be cautious and guard against market black swan risks.

This article is a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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$COIN Joins S&P 500, but Coinbase Isn't Celebrating

On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coinbase would officially replace Discover Financial Services in the S&P 500 on May 19. While other companies like Block and MicroStrategy, closely tied to Bitcoin, were already part of the S&P 500, Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency exchange whose primary business is in the index. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the fringes to the mainstream in the U.S.



On the day of the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged by 23%, surpassing the $250 mark. However, just 3 days later, Coinbase was hit by two consecutive events: a hack where employees were bribed to steal customer data and a demand for a $20 million ransom, and an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into the authenticity of its claim of having over 100 million "verified users" in its securities filings and marketing materials. These two events acted as mini-bombs, and at the time of writing, Coinbase's stock had already dropped by over 7.3%.


Coincidentally, Discover Financial Services, being replaced by Coinbase, can also be considered the "Coinbase" of the previous payment era. Discover is a U.S.-based digital banking and payment services company headquartered in Illinois, founded in 1960. Its payment network, Discover Network, is the fourth largest payment network apart from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.


In April, after the approval of the acquisition of Discover by the sixth-largest U.S. bank, Capital One, this well-established digital banking company of over 60 years smoothly handed over its S&P 500 "seat" to this emerging cryptocurrency "bank." This unexpected coincidence also portrayed the handover between the new and old eras in Coinbase's entry into the S&P 500, resembling a relay race scene. However, this relay baton also brought Coinbase's accumulated "external troubles and internal strife" to a tipping point.


Side Effects of ETFs


Over the past decade, cryptocurrency exchanges have been the most stable "profit machines." They play a role in providing liquidity to the entire industry and rely on trading fees to sustain their operations. However, with the comprehensive rollout of ETF products in the U.S. market, this profit model is facing unprecedented challenges. As the leader in the "American stack," with over 80% of its business coming from the U.S., Coinbase is most affected by this.



Starting from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, traditional financial capital has significantly onboarded users and funds that originally belonged to exchanges in a more cost-effective, compliant, and transparent manner. The transaction fee revenue of cryptocurrency exchanges has started to decline, and this trend may further intensify in the coming months.


According to Coinbase's 2024 Q4 financial report, the platform's total trading revenue was $417 million, a 45% year-on-year decrease. The contribution of BTC and ETH's trading revenue dropped from 65% in the same period last year to less than 50%.


This decline is not a result of a decrease in market enthusiasm. In fact, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the inflow of BTC into the U.S. market has continued to reach new highs, with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity rapidly expanding their management scale. Data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone has surpassed $17 billion in assets under management. As of mid-May 2025, the cumulative net inflow of 11 major institutional Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market has exceeded $41.5 billion, with a total net asset value of $1214.69 billion, accounting for approximately 5.91% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.


Chart showing the trend of net outflows for Grayscale among the 11 institutions


Institutional investors and some retail investors are shifting towards ETF products, partly due to compliance and tax considerations. On one hand, ETFs have much lower trading costs compared to cryptocurrency exchanges. While Coinbase's spot trading fee rate varies annually in a tiered manner but averages around 1.49%, for example, the management fee for IBIT ETF is only 0.25%, and the majority of ETF institution fees fluctuate around 0.15% to 0.25%.



In other words, the more rational users are, the more likely they are to move from exchanges to ETF products, especially for investors aiming for long-term holdings.


According to multiple sources, several institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications to the SEC for a Solana (SOL) ETF, with some institutions also planning to submit an XRP ETF proposal. Once approved, this may trigger a new round of fund migration. According to a report submitted by Coinbase to the SEC, as of April, the platform's trading revenue from XRP and Solana accounted for 18% and 10%, nearly one-third of the platform's fee revenue.



However, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs passed in 2024 also reduced the fees for these two tokens on Coinbase from 30% and 15% to 26% and 10%, respectively. If the SOL and XRP ETFs are approved, it will further undermine the core fee revenue of exchanges like Coinbase.


The expansion of ETF products is gradually weakening the financial intermediary status of cryptocurrency exchanges. From their original roles as matchmakers and clearers to now gradually becoming mere "on-ramps and off-ramps" for funds, exchanges are seeing their marginal value squeezed by ETFs.


Robinhood Takes a Stand, Traditional Brokerages Join the Fray


On May 12, 2025, SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins gave a keynote speech at the Tokenization and Cryptocurrency Working Group roundtable. The theme of his speech revolved around "It is a new day at the SEC," where he indicated that the SEC would not approach enforcement and regulation the same way as before but would instead pave the way for cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. market.



With signs of cryptocurrency compliance such as the SEC's "NEW DAY" declaration, an increasing number of traditional brokerages are attempting to enter the cryptocurrency industry. One of the most representative cases is the well-known U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which began expanding its crypto business in 2018. By the time of its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's crypto business revenue accounted for over 50% of the company, with a significant boost from the Dogecoin "moonshot" promoted by Musk.


In Q1 2025 earnings report, Robinhood showcased strong growth, especially in revenue from cryptocurrency and options trading. Fueled by Trump's Memecoin, cryptocurrency-related revenue reached $250 million, nearly doubling year-over-year. Consequently, Robinhood Gold subscription users reached 3.5 million, a 90% increase from the previous year, with the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold providing the company with a stable source of income.



Meanwhile, RobinHood is actively pursuing acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, it announced a $2 billion acquisition of the long-standing European cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Additionally, Canada's largest cryptocurrency CEX, WonderFi, which recently went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also announced its integration with RobinHood Crypto. After obtaining virtual asset licenses in the UK, Canada, Singapore, and other markets, RobinHood has taken a proactive approach in the compliant cryptocurrency trading market.



Furthermore, an increasing number of brokerage firms are exploring the same path. Futu Securities, Tiger Brokers, and others are also dipping their toes into cryptocurrency trading, with some having applied for or obtained the VA license from the Hong Kong SFC. Although their user bases are currently small, traditional brokerages have a natural advantage in user trust, regulatory licenses, and low fee structures. This could pose a threat to native cryptocurrency platforms in the future.



User Data Breach: Is Coinbase Still Secure?


In April 2025, security researchers discovered that some Coinbase user data was leaked on the dark web. While the platform initially responded by attributing it to a "technical misinformation," it still raised concerns among users regarding its security and privacy protection. Just two days before Dow Jones Indexes announced Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 Index, on May 11, 2025, Coinbase received an email from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained customer account information and internal documents, demanding a $20 million ransom to keep the data private. Subsequent investigations confirmed the data breach.


Cybercriminals obtained the data by bribing overseas customer service agents and support staff, mainly in "non-U.S. regions such as India." These agents abused their access to Coinbase's internal customer support system and stole customer data. As early as February this year, blockchain detective ZachXBT revealed on X platform that between December 2024 and January 2025, Coinbase users lost over $65 million to social engineering scams, with the actual amount potentially higher.


Among the victims was a well-known figure, 67-year-old Ed Suman, an established artist in the art world for nearly two decades, having been involved in the creation of artworks such as Jeff Koons' "Balloon Dog" sculpture. Earlier this year, he fell victim to an impersonation scam involving fake Coinbase customer support, resulting in a loss of over $2 million in cryptocurrency. ZachXBT critiqued Coinbase for its inadequate handling of such scams, noting that other major exchanges have not faced similar issues and recommending Coinbase to enhance its security measures.


Amidst a series of ongoing social engineering incidents, although there has not been any impact on user assets at the technical level so far, it has raised concerns among many retail and institutional investors. Especially institutions holding massive assets on Coinbase. Just considering the U.S. BTC ETF institutions, as of mid-May 2025, they collectively hold nearly 840,000 BTC, and 75% of these are custodied by Coinbase. If we price BTC at $100,000, this amount reaches a staggering $63 billion, which is equivalent to the nominal GDP of two Iceland in the year 2024.


Visualization: ChatGPT, Source: Farside


In addition, Coinbase Custody also serves over 300 institutional clients, including hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, and endowments. As of the Q1 2025 financial report, Coinbase's total assets under management (including institutional and retail clients) reached $404 billion. The specific amount of institutional custodied assets was not explicitly disclosed in the latest report, but it should still be over 50% based on the Q4 2024 report.


Visualization: ChatGPT


Once this security barrier is breached, not only could the rate of user attrition far exceed expectations, but more importantly, institutional trust in it would undermine the foundation of its business. Therefore, after a hacking event, Coinbase's stock price plummeted significantly.


CEXs are All in Self-Rescue Mode


Facing a decline in spot trading fee revenue, Coinbase is also accelerating its transformation, attempting to find growth opportunities in derivatives and emerging assets. Coinbase acquired a stake in the options platform Deribit at the end of 2024 and announced the official launch of perpetual contract products in 2025. This acquisition fills in Coinbase's gap in options trading and its relatively small global market share.



Deribit has a strong presence in non-U.S. markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The acquisition has enabled Coinbase to gain a dominant position in bitcoin and ethereum options trading on Deribit, accounting for approximately 80% of the global options trading volume, with daily trading volume remaining above $2 billion.


Meanwhile, 80-90% of Deribit's customer base consists of institutional investors, with their professionalism and liquidity in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options market highly favored by institutions. Coinbase's compliance advantage, coupled with its already robust institutional ecosystem, makes it even more suitable. By using institutions as an entry point, it can face the squeeze from giants like Binance and OKX in the derivatives market.



Facing a similar dilemma is Kraken, which is attempting to replicate Binance Futures' model in non-U.S. markets. Since the derivatives market relies more on professional users, fee rates are relatively higher and stickiness is stronger, making it a significant source of revenue for exchanges. In the first half of 2025, Kraken completed the acquisition of TradeStation Crypto and a futures exchange, aiming to build a complete derivatives trading ecosystem to hedge the risk of declining spot transaction fee income.


With the surge of Memecoin in 2024, Binance, OKX, and various CEX platforms began massively listing small-market-cap, highly volatile tokens to activate active trading users. Due to the wealth effect and trading activity of Memecoins, Coinbase was also forced to join the battle, successively listing popular tokens from the Solana ecosystem such as BOOK OF MEME and Dogwifhat. Although these coins are controversial, they are frequently traded, with fee rates several times higher than mainstream coins, serving as a "blood-boosting" method for spot trading.


However, due to its status as a publicly traded company, this practice is a riskier endeavor for Coinbase. Even in the current crypto-friendly environment, the SEC is still investigating whether tokens like SOL, ADA, and SAND constitute securities.


In addition to the forced transformation strategies carried out by the aforementioned CEXs, they are also starting to lay out RWAs and the most talked-about stablecoin payment fields, such as the PYUSD launched through a collaboration between Coinbase and Paypal, Coinbase's support for the Euro stablecoin EURC by Circle that complies with EU MiCA regulatory requirements, or the USD1 launched through a collaboration between Binance and WIFL. In the increasingly crowded trading field, many CEXs have shifted their focus from just the trading market to the application field.


The golden age of transaction fees has quietly ended, and the second half of the crypto exchange platform game has silently begun.


Arthur Hayes: Why I'm Betting on ETH While the Market Is Obsessed with SOL

"I personally have also allocated 20% to gold, expecting the price of gold to potentially rise to $10,000-20,000 by the end of this market cycle."

Key Market Insights for May 16th, how much did you miss out on?

1. On-chain Flows: $111.3M inflow to Ethereum this week; $237.6M outflow from Berachain 2. Largest Price Swings: $ETHFI, $NEIRO 3. Top News: Data: Solana Network's revenue reached $7.9M on the 13th, surpassing the sum of all other L1 and L2 chains

CryptoPunks Changes Hands Twice, Did the Originator of NFTs Finally Find Its "Forever Home" This Time?

The original NFT pioneer CryptoPunks has once again officially changed ownership after being sold to the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) developer Yuga Labs.

May 16 Key Market Information Gap, A Must-Read! | Alpha Morning Report

1. Top News: Coinbase Faces Double Blow with 'SEC Investigation' and 'User Data Breach,' Stock Price Drops by 7.2% 2. Token Unlocking: $ARB, $AVAX, $PRIME, $ASTR, $1INCH

Key Market Intelligence on May 14th, how much did you miss out on?

Featured News


1.Binance Alpha Launches HIPPO, BLUE, and Other Tokens

2.Believe Ecosystem Tokens See General Rise, LAUNCHCOIN Surges Over 250% in 24 Hours

3.Tiger Securities Introduces Cryptocurrency Deposit and Withdrawal Service, Supports Mainstream Cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH

4.Current Bitcoin Rally Possibly Driven by Institutions, Retail Traders Yet to Join

5.Binance Wallet's New TGE Privasea AI Participation Requires a 198 Point Threshold, with a Point Consumption of 15


Trending Topics


Source: Overheard on CT (tg: @overheardonct), Kaito


PUMP: Today's discussions about PUMP focus on its new creator revenue-sharing model: the platform will allocate 50% of PumpSwap revenue to token creators, sparking varied reactions from users. Some criticize the move as insufficient or even misleading, while others view it as a positive step the platform is taking to reward creators. Meanwhile, PUMP faces market pressure from emerging competitors like LetsBONKfun and Raydium, which are rapidly gaining market share. Users also express concerns about PUMP's sustainability and potential regulatory risks in the U.S., with discussions extending to the platform's impact on the entire memecoin ecosystem.


COINBASE: Today, Coinbase became the first crypto company to join the S&P 500 Index, replacing Discover Financial Services, sparking widespread industry attention. The entire crypto community views this milestone as a significant development, signaling that crypto assets are further integrating into the mainstream financial system. The news has sparked lively discussions on Twitter, with many users pointing out that this may attract more institutional investors to enter the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets.


XRP: XRP became the focal point of today's crypto discussion, with its significant market movements and strategic advances drawing attention. XRP has surpassed USDT to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, sparking market excitement and discussions about its future potential. The surge in market capitalization and price is believed to be related to increasing institutional interest, deepening strategic partnerships, and its role in the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, XRP's integration into multiple financial systems and its potential as a macro asset class are also seen as key factors driving the current market sentiment.


DYDX: Today's discussions about DYDX mainly focused on the dYdX Yapper Leaderboard launched by KaitoAI. The leaderboard aims to identify the most active community participants, with a total of $150,000 in rewards to be distributed over the first three seasons. This initiative has sparked broad community participation, with many users discussing the potential rewards and the incentive effect on the DYDX ecosystem. Meanwhile, progress on the ethDYDX to dYdX native chain migration and historical airdrop events have also been topics of discussion.


Featured Articles


1. "What Is 'ICM'? Holding Up the $4 Billion Market Cap Solana's New Narrative"

Overnight, the hottest narrative in the crypto space has become "Internet Capital Markets," with a host of crypto projects and founders, led by the Solana ecosystem's new Launchpad platform Believe, releasing this phrase. Together with "Believe in something," it has become the new slogan heralding the onset of a bull market. What exactly is the so-called "Internet Capital Market," will it become a short-lived hype phrase like the Base ecosystem's previous Content Coin, and what related targets are available for selection?


2.《LaunchCoin Surges 20x in One Day, How Did Believe Create a $200M Market Cap Shiba Inu After Going to Zero?｜100x Retrospective》

LAUNCHCOIN broke through a $200 million market cap today, with the long-lost liquidity and such a high market cap "Memecoin" almost bringing half of the on-chain crypto community CT into the fray. The community is crazily discussing this token, with half of it being FOMO and the other half being FUD. This token, originally issued by Believe founder Ben Pasternak under his personal identity, transformed into a new platform token after a renaming. From once going to zero to a $200 million market cap, what happened in between?


On-chain Data


May 14 On-chain Fund Flow


Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

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On-chain Analyst Auntie AI Correction: Trend Research holds 580,000 ETH across 6 addresses, and the address starting with 0x9f does not belong to this entity

BlockBeats News, December 25th, on-chain analyst Ai Yi issued a correction to previous news, stating that under Yi Lihua, Trend Research does not hold 628,309 ETH across 7 addresses as previously mentioned. The address starting with 0x9f does not belong to the institution. Therefore, Trend Research ...
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USD1 Market Cap Surpasses $3 Billion, 24-hour Growth of 7.68%

BlockBeats News, December 25th, USD1's market cap exceeded 3 billion US dollars, reaching 3.011 billion US dollars, a 24-hour growth of 7.68%.Prior to this, Binance launched the USD1 flexible savings product with an annualized interest rate of up to 20%.
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Yi He: USD1 Could Become a Leading Stablecoin in the Future, Will Continue to Invest and Support

BlockBeats News, December 25th, Li Xiaohua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), posted on social media, saying, "A USD1 market cap exceeding 3 billion US dollars is a good start for USD1. Stablecoin is the most important track in the industry and also the bridge for crypto to enter the ...
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Wintermute CEO: Some young builders and KOLs who partially claim to be "exiting crypto" have never truly entered, so there is no question of an "exit."

BlockBeats News, December 25th, Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy posted that these cryptocurrency builders and KOLs in their early 30s who claimed to "exit cryptocurrency" are actually scammers. He pointed out that these people never really started. They didn't even give cryptocurrency a chance. They ar...
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Analysis: 2026 Will Be Ethereum's Key Scalability Moment, Gas Limit to Increase Significantly from 60 Million to 200 Million

BlockBeats News, December 25th, according to Cointelegraph, the coming year will be a key period for Ethereum's scalability. By 2026, Ethereum will see the Glamsterdam fork, which will bring nearly perfect parallel processing capabilities to the mainnet and significantly increase the Gas limit from ...
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